Categories
AI Technology

The Bathwater Problem

Gary Kamiya was writing about the Tenderloin when he said it, but the line has been following me around: โ€œThe problem is that by saving the baby, you also save the bathwater.โ€

The pattern is remarkably consistent across every major information technology. Each one arrives promising to liberate the deserving โ€” the faithful, the learned, the civic-minded โ€” and each one immediately, inevitably, arms everyone else too. Gutenbergโ€™s press was understood by its champions as a device for spreading the true Word; within decades it was the primary infrastructure for Protestant schism, Catholic counter-propaganda, astrological almanacs, and pornography. The reformers got their Bible. They also got their pamphlet wars.

The telegraph was greeted as a force for peace โ€” shared information would make war irrational, commerce would bind nations. It also became the nervous system of commodity speculation, financial manipulation, and the first truly industrial-scale news hoaxes. The telephone: connection and the crank call, the crisis line and the threatening voice in the dark. Radio: FDRโ€™s fireside chats and Father Coughlin. Television: Murrow taking down McCarthy, and also fifty years of manufactured consent. The internet: the largest library ever assembled and the largest sewer.

The pattern isnโ€™t coincidental. Itโ€™s structural. Each technology expands whatโ€™s possible for human expression and coordination โ€” and human expression and coordination contain both the noblest and the worst of us in roughly fixed proportion. The tool doesnโ€™t change the ratio. It scales both sides of it.

Whatโ€™s interesting historically is how each generation believes their technology will be different โ€” that this time the architecture can be designed to select for the good. The internet era produced the most elaborate version of this belief: algorithmic curation would surface truth, network effects would reward quality, the wisdom of crowds would outcompete misinformation. Instead it turned out that engagement was the attractor, and outrage was the highest-engagement content. The bath got hotter.

The AI moment is the same belief system, restated with more technical sophistication. But the Kamiya line stands. You are saving a baby, and you are saving bathwater, and no one has yet designed a tub that can tell the difference.

The question isnโ€™t whether the bathwater comes with the baby. It always does. The question is whether you turn on the tap.

Categories
AI AI: Large Language Models Anthropic

Breakout

Jack Clark doesn’t panic easily. He spent years at OpenAI watching capabilities inch upward, then left to co-found Anthropic, and has been writing his Import AI newsletter long enough to have developed โ€” and been wrong about โ€” many priors. So when he publishes an essay saying he has reluctantly arrived at a 60% probability that fully automated AI R&D happens by the end of 2028, the word “reluctantly” deserves some weight.

His essay, published last week and titled “Automating AI Research,” isn’t a press release or a fundraising pitch. It reads more like a man thinking out loud at the edge of something large. “I don’t know how to wrap my head around it,” he writes, which is a notable thing to say publicly when you are one of the architects of the thing you can’t wrap your head around.

The argument is built from benchmarks โ€” not any single one, but a mosaic of them assembled to reveal a trend. SWE-Bench, the test that measures an AI’s ability to solve real GitHub issues, was at roughly 2% when it launched in late 2023. A recent Anthropic model sits at 93.9%, effectively saturating it. METR’s time-horizon plot tracks how long an AI can work independently before needing human recalibration: 30 seconds in 2022, 4 minutes in 2023, 40 minutes in 2024, 6 hours in 2025, 12 hours today. The trajectory, if it holds, suggests 100-hour autonomous work sessions by the end of this year.

Clark marshals similar progressions across AI fine-tuning, kernel design, scientific paper replication, and even alignment research itself. His throughline is the same in each: AI is now genuinely competent at the unglamorous scaffolding of AI development โ€” the debugging, the experiment runs, the parameter sweeps, the code reviews. And crucially, it can now do these things not just faster than humans, but for longer, with less supervision.

There’s a Thomas Edison quote at the center of the essay: “Genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration.” Clark’s claim is that AI has become very good at the perspiration. The question of whether it can supply the inspiration โ€” the paradigm-shifting insight, the Move 37 โ€” remains open. But he argues it may not need to. Most of what has moved the AI field forward has been sustained, methodical work, not lone flashes of genius. If you can automate the 99%, you have something that compounds.

There’s a data point that makes Clark’s argument feel less like forecast and more like dispatch. Last month Boris Cherny, who runs Anthropic’s Claude Code, disclosed that he hasn’t written a line of code by hand in more than two months. Every pull request โ€” 22 one day, 27 the next โ€” written entirely by Claude. Company-wide, roughly 70โ€“90% of Anthropic’s code is now AI-generated. Anthropic’s stated position: “We build Claude with Claude.” The loop Clark is describing as a probability by 2028 is already running, at least partially, today.

The word Clark uses for the threshold he’s describing is not “singularity” or “AGI.” It’s quieter than that. He calls it “automated AI R&D” โ€” the point at which a frontier model can autonomously train its own successor. It’s a specific, falsifiable thing. And he puts a number on it: 60% by end of 2028, 30% by end of 2027.

I’ve been writing about the dark software factory and the 3D printer that prints better printers, finding metaphors for what seems like an inexorable process. Clark’s essay is a different kind of writing about the same thing โ€” the primary source document, the engineer’s log, the inventory of evidence. Reading it is a little like watching someone carefully pack boxes before a move. Each individual item seems manageable. But there are a lot of boxes.

What he’s describing โ€” if the trend holds โ€” is not a feature or a product launch. It’s a breakout. The moment the loop closes and the system starts building itself. He’s not certain it happens. He just thinks it’s more likely than not, and he thought you should know.

Categories
AI Business Work

The Tipping Point Was Last November

Matthew Prince, Cloudflareโ€™s CEO, said something on todayโ€™s earnings call that I keep turning over. He didnโ€™t bury it or soften it. He named a date.

โ€œInternally, the tipping point was last November.โ€

Thatโ€™s a specific thing to say. Not โ€œweโ€™ve been on a journeyโ€ or โ€œAI has been transforming our industry.โ€ A month. A moment. The thing changed, and he knows when.

What changed, by his account, is that Cloudflareโ€™s teams began seeing productivity gains so dramatic they were hard to describe โ€” people who were two times more productive, ten times, in some cases a hundred times. โ€œIt was like going from a manual to an electric screwdriver.โ€ Usage of AI tools internally is up more than 600% in just the last three months. Every line of production code is now reviewed by an autonomous AI agent.

And then he said goodbye to 1,100 people โ€” about 20% of the company.


Today wasnโ€™t just Cloudflare. Earnings season has become something like a drumbeat. Meta is cutting 8,000 employees this month. Amazon cut 16,000 in Q1. Oracle eliminated roughly 30,000 to fund AI infrastructure. Block cut almost half its workforce. PayPal is reportedly planning to cut 20% of its staff over the next few years. Coinbase cut 14%. Snap cut 16%. As of this week, more than 92,000 tech workers have been laid off in 2026 alone.

The scale is striking. But what strikes me more is the framing โ€” the specific language being used to describe whatโ€™s happening. These arenโ€™t being announced as cost-cutting moves or post-pandemic corrections, the way they might have been in 2022. Theyโ€™re being announced as architectural decisions. Structural adaptations. Evolution.

Prince was careful to be explicit: โ€œThis isnโ€™t a cost-cutting exercise or an assessment of individualsโ€™ performance. Itโ€™s about defining how a world-class, high-growth company operates and creates value in the agentic AI era.โ€ Thatโ€™s not empty corporate language, or at least not only empty corporate language. The distinction heโ€™s drawing โ€” between trimming fat and reimagining how a company is built โ€” maps to something real about what AI agents can now actually do.

Thereโ€™s a legitimate version of this argument and a convenient one, and theyโ€™re being delivered in the same sentence by the same people, which makes them hard to separate. Some analysts suspect companies are using AI as cover for cuts they wanted to make for other reasons โ€” rightsizing from pandemic-era overhiring, funding massive infrastructure buildouts, chasing margin. Oxford Economics flagged this: maybe some firms are โ€œdressing up layoffs as a good news story.โ€ The cynicism is warranted.

But then thereโ€™s the Cloudflare number: 600% increase in AI usage in three months. Thatโ€™s not a narrative. Thatโ€™s a measurement.


Whatโ€™s different about this moment โ€” what makes Princeโ€™s โ€œtipping pointโ€ language feel accurate rather than convenient โ€” is that the people making these decisions are themselves users of the tools. Theyโ€™ve seen the productivity numbers internally before anyone else has. Theyโ€™re not theorizing about what AI might do to their workforce; theyโ€™re describing what it already did.

Thatโ€™s the thing that changed. For years, AIโ€™s labor impact was a future tense conversation. Economists studied it, think pieces warned about it, conferences debated the timeline. Then, somewhere around last November apparently, a cohort of technology companies crossed from hypothetical to empirical. The future tense became past.

Whether you read that as tragedy, as transformation, or as both depends on where youโ€™re standing. 1,100 people at Cloudflare today are standing somewhere very specific. Prince acknowledged this with what felt like genuine difficulty: โ€œA number of friends will no longer be colleagues.โ€ Whether that difficulty changes anything material for the people leaving is a fair question.

But the acceleration itself โ€” the thing he named โ€” is real. The tipping point was last November. And if it was last November for Cloudflare, it was some nearby month for Amazon, for Meta, for Block, for all of them. Whatever these companies learned that changed everything, they all seem to have learned it around the same time.

Thatโ€™s what I find myself sitting with today: not just the scale of the disruption, but the synchrony of it. The realization arrived, and then the decisions followed. Quietly at first, then all at once.

Categories
Business Creativity Space SpaceX

Test like you fly!

Thereโ€™s a phrase in the SpaceX documentary that keeps coming back to me: โ€œTest like you fly.โ€ It sounds like a slogan. The kind of thing that gets painted on a factory wall and eventually stops meaning anything. But the more I sit with it, the more I think itโ€™s actually a philosophy that reaches well beyond rocket engineering.

The video โ€” a 25-minute documentary SpaceX released last week โ€” is ostensibly about Starship Version 3. New ship, new booster, new engines, new pad, new test site. Everything rebuilt. And theyโ€™re not shy about framing it as a reset, not an upgrade. One description I read called it โ€œa quiet violence in progress.โ€ That phrase stopped me cold, because itโ€™s exactly right. Progress that looks violent from the outside โ€” all that fire and metal โ€” but is somehow quiet in its inevitability.

What moved me watching it wasnโ€™t the engines. It was the engineers. SpaceX put the people on camera: the ones running cryogenic pressure tests at 80 Kelvin, stress-testing tank structures at 70% proof, explaining their failures and their data with the flat affect of people who have made peace with how long hard things take. Thereโ€™s something almost monastic about it. You choose a problem that will not yield easily. You accept that the work will outlast any individual sprint of enthusiasm. You go back to it anyway.

I keep thinking about that in the context of what weโ€™re doing with AI โ€” the other enormous, fast-moving project that I spend so much of my mental energy on. The development arc is different: iterative releases, weeks not years between jumps, demos that blur into deployment. But the same principle is buried in there somewhere. The best AI teams I read about arenโ€™t the ones shipping the most polished demos. Theyโ€™re the ones building infrastructure for failure โ€” evals, red-teaming, structured feedback loops. Test like you fly.

The Raptor 3 engines now produce 280 metric tons of thrust each. Thirty-three of them on a Super Heavy booster means over 17 million pounds of liftoff force. I have no intuitive frame for that number. What I do have a frame for is what those numbers represent: three years of iteration on top of five years before that, on top of a theoretical foundation laid by people who didnโ€™t live to see any of this. Thereโ€™s a compounding in that which I find genuinely moving. Nobody built the Raptor 3 in isolation. It came from everything that broke before it.

The hardest part of the documentary isnโ€™t the engineering. Itโ€™s the implicit acknowledgment of how much remains undone. No Starship has yet achieved full orbital velocity with both stages intact. In-space refueling is still untested. The thermal protection systems need more work. And yet โ€” SpaceX talks about unmanned cargo missions to Mars before the end of this year like itโ€™s on the roadmap, not the wish list. That sentence used to sound like marketing. Watching the footage, it doesnโ€™t anymore.

Iโ€™m not sure what to do with that feeling exactly. Itโ€™s something between awe and vertigo. Weโ€™re living in a moment when the audacious has started to have quarterly milestones. When the impossible keeps showing up on timelines and then โ€” bewilderingly, uncomfortably โ€” meeting them.

Test like you fly. Fail with rigor. Build the thing you actually need, not the thing you could more easily explain.

I keep turning that over. Thereโ€™s a post in there somewhere about writing, too โ€” about the drafts nobody sees, the structural tests that fail, the versions that taught you the one that worked. But thatโ€™s for another day.

For now Iโ€™m just sitting with the footage of those 33 engines lighting up, and the quiet weight of how much went wrong before they could do that.

Categories
Chemicals Petroleum Semiconductors

The Invisible Layer Beneath the Chip

At the edge of a semiconductor fab, nothing looks dramatic.

No flames. No smoke. No sense of weight.

Just pipes, valves, and a silence so controlled it feels artificial.

Itโ€™s easy, standing there, to believe that oilโ€”the old engine of the economyโ€”has been replaced by something cleaner, lighter, more abstract. Software, maybe. Or data. The kinds of things that donโ€™t spill.

But step a little closer, and the illusion breaks.

A modern fab is less like a factory and more like a chemistry experiment that never ends. Gases move through stainless steel arteries. Liquids are mixed, spun, deposited, stripped away. Surfaces are etched and re-etched until what remains is measured in atoms, not microns. The machinesโ€”Applied Materials, Lam Researchโ€”are precise, but they are not the story. The story is what flows through them.

Chemicals are doing the real work.

Not in bulk, the way oil once did. Not with force. But with specificity.

A barrel of oil is valuable because of its densityโ€”how much energy it contains. A liter of photoresist is valuable because of its selectivityโ€”what it allows to exist and what it removes. One powers motion. The other defines structure.

Structure is where the modern economy hides its value.

A semiconductor is not impressive because of what it consumes. Itโ€™s impressive because of what it constrains. Billions of transistors, each one placed, shaped, and insulated with a chemical discipline that borders on obsession. The difference between a working chip and a useless one is often a contaminant you cannot see.

This is a different kind of industrialism.

The 20th century scaled by adding moreโ€”more fuel, more steel, more throughput. The 21st century scales by removing everything that shouldnโ€™t be there. Purity is the limiting factor. Not how much you can move, but how precisely you can control.


From a distance, it can look like oil has become less important. The headlines have shifted. The glamour has moved on.

But the truth is more entangled.

Most of the chemicals inside a fab begin their lives as hydrocarbons. The solvents, the polymers, even some of the specialty gasesโ€”downstream of the same geological inheritance. Oil didnโ€™t disappear. It changed roles. It moved from the foreground to the substrate.

The question, then, isnโ€™t whether chemicals have replaced oil. Itโ€™s whether the economy has learned to express value differently.

Less in how much energy we can release. More in how carefully we can shape matter.


Semiconductors are the clearest example, but not the only one. Pharmaceuticals follow the same logic. Advanced materials, too. In each case, the breakthrough isnโ€™t scaleโ€”itโ€™s control. The ability to operate at the edge of whatโ€™s physically possible, and to do it repeatedly.

Which raises a quieter possibility.

That the defining resource of the next era isnโ€™t oil, or even chemicals.

Itโ€™s precision.

And chemistry is simply the language we use to achieve it.


Categories
AI Business

The Topography of a Face

I found myself staring at the physical geometry of a conversation the other dayโ€”not the words, but the topography of the faces delivering them.

Elad Gil recently shared a fascinating experiment during a conversation with Tim Ferriss. Heโ€™s been uploading photos of startup founders into AI models and asking the machines to predict if theyโ€™d be successful, purely based on their โ€œmicro-features.โ€

“Because if you think about it, we do this all the time when we meet people, right? We quickly try to create an assessment of that person, their personality, and what they’re like. There are all these micro-featuresโ€”like, do you have crow’s feet by your eyes, which suggests that your smiles are genuine? [โ€ฆ] So, I have this whole set of prompts that I’ve been messing around with, just for fun, around: ‘Can you extrapolate a person’s personality based off of a few images?'”

He notes the model breaks down the crow’s feet and the furrowed brows, extrapolating a personality from a static frame. Itโ€™s a parlor trick, perhaps. But it works because it holds a mirror to our oldest, most unexamined instinct.

We are all amateur phrenologists of the human face. We sit across a table, measure the crinkle of an eye or the tightness of a jaw, and we build a rapid, invisible architecture of trust or suspicion. Over decades of investing and making career choices, Iโ€™ve often leaned heavily on this silent language. Iโ€™ve backed founders because their intensity felt genuine, and Iโ€™ve passed on others because something in their posture felt misaligned.

But if I am brutally honest, that intuition has sometimes been a mask for my own blind spots. Iโ€™ve held on to failing investments for far too long because I trusted a reassuring smile. We like to think our gut instinct is a sophisticated instrument. Often, it is just a pattern-matching engine running on deeply flawed historical data.

Now, we are handing that very human habit over to a machine. We prompt the AI to become a โ€œcold reader,โ€ and it obliges, predicting who will be the quiet observer and who will deliver the dry wit.

The unsettling part isn’t that the machine might get it wrong. The unsettling part is that it might get it exactly rightโ€”by mimicking the very same rapid, superficial judgments we make every day, just at a terrifying scale.

We are teaching silicon to read the human code. The future will belong to those who realize the code was always written in our own biases.

Categories
Assumptions Creativity

The Question Before the Question

I spent hours with Paul Baran over the years, and I never quite got used to his mind.

He asked questions you wouldnโ€™t expect. Not provocative questions, not contrarian ones โ€” just questions that arrived from a slightly different angle than youโ€™d prepared for. And the strange thing was the aftermath. Youโ€™d hear the question, feel briefly disoriented, and then โ€” almost immediately โ€” think: of course. Now I understand.

Paul invented the Telebit Trailblazer modem. If you were around in that era you remember what modems were: devices that negotiated a fixed speed and held it. The whole industry operated that way. Speed was a spec, a number on the box, a ceiling you bumped against.

Paul looked at the same problem and saw something different. He didnโ€™t ask how fast a modem could go. He asked what a specific telephone circuit was actually capable of โ€” this wire, right now, in these conditions. The Trailblazer was adaptive. It listened to the line before it decided anything. It milked transfer speeds out of circuits that conventional modems had already given up on.

Thatโ€™s not a new technique. Thatโ€™s a new question.

Iโ€™ve thought about Paul a lot since then, trying to locate the thing that made his mind work differently. I donโ€™t have a single moment to point to. No whiteboard revelation, no conversation I can replay. Just the accumulated residue of hours in the room with someone who seemed to be operating on different premises than everyone else โ€” asking the question that preceded the question the rest of us were answering.

Morgan Housel quotes Visa founder Dee Hock in Same As Ever: โ€œNew ways of looking at things create much greater innovation than new ways of doing them.โ€

I read that and thought of Paul immediately. What I took from all those hours with him wasnโ€™t a method or a framework. It was simpler and harder than that โ€” a habit of suspicion toward the assumptions already in the room. The ones everyone had agreed to without quite deciding to. The fixed speeds no one was questioning.

I still hear his voice when I catch myself accepting an assumption. Is it, though?

Categories
Apple Business

The Architecture of Subtraction

Hold an iPhone in your hand, or run your fingers along the cold, machined edge of a MacBook. What you are feeling isnโ€™t just glass and aluminum; you are feeling the physical manifestation of a thousand invisible rejections.

We are conditioned to think of creation as an additive process. But true institutional excellence operates in reverse. It is an act of relentless, unsentimental subtraction.

A few years ago, Tim Cook articulated what became known as the “Cook Doctrine.” It is meant to answer the existential question of what makes Apple, Apple. Reading through it, what strikes me isn’t the corporate ambition, but the brutal, uncompromising geometry of its choices.

We believe that weโ€™re on the face of the Earth to make great products, and thatโ€™s not changing. Weโ€™re constantly focusing on innovating. We believe in the simple, not the complex. We believe that we need to own and control the primary technologies behind the products we make, and participate only in markets where we can make a significant contribution.

We believe in saying no to thousands of projects so that we can really focus on the few that are truly important and meaningful to us. We believe in deep collaboration and cross-pollination of our groups, which allow us to innovate in a way that others cannot. And frankly, we donโ€™t settle for anything less than excellence in every group in the company, and we have the self-honesty to admit when weโ€™re wrong and the courage to change.

The gravity of that doctrine doesn’t live in the pursuit of “great products.” Everyone claims to want that. The gravity lives in the tension between wanting to do everything and having the discipline to do almost nothing.

“Saying no to thousands of projects” is easy to write on a slide. It is agonizing to practice in reality. It means looking at a perfectly good ideaโ€”perhaps even a highly profitable ideaโ€”and killing it because it dilutes the core mission. It is the architectural equivalent of leaving vast amounts of empty space in a room so that the few pieces of furniture inside it can actually breathe.

I think about the times in my own career when I lacked that specific kind of courage. I have held onto projects that had long since lost their spark, simply because of the sunk costs. I have said yes to interesting distractions that slowly eroded my focus on the essential work. We dilute our attention not because we intend to fail, but because the alternativeโ€”staring at a promising path and refusing to walk down itโ€”feels entirely unnatural.

That is where Cook’s point about “self-honesty” becomes the linchpin. You cannot admit you are wrong unless you have created a culture where the truth outranks the ego. The deep collaboration Cook speaks of isn’t just about sharing resources; it’s about sharing the burden of that honesty. It is a collective agreement to not settle, to look at a nearly finished product and have the courage to say, this isn’t right yet.

Ultimately, the Cook Doctrine isn’t a strategy for building computers. It is an observation about human nature. The future is only guaranteed for those who can afford to survive the presentโ€”and survival demands knowing exactly what you are not.

The chaos isnโ€™t an obstacle to the mission; it is the environment in which the mission earns its meaning.

Excellence is not just about what you build. It is also about what you are willing to destroy.

Categories
Living Space

Apolloโ€™s Ghosts and the Artemis Return

I watched the Artemis mission splash down yesterday, a modern silver capsule returning from the silent void around the moon. It was a beautiful, flawless return, but watching it, I felt an unexpected tug of melancholy. It transported me back.

I remembered being a kid, mesmerized by the grainy, ghostly black-and-white television broadcasts of the early American space program. I remember the static, the deliberate countdowns, the collective held breath of a nation when the first man walked on the lunar surface. Space felt like the ultimate frontierโ€”an endless trajectory of human ambition.

This morning, with those images still knocking around in my head, I listened to a podcast discussing the long, quiet gap in manned lunar exploration. And then, one commentator dropped a detail that stopped me in my tracks: the spacecraft for Apollo 18 and 19 had already been built. They were fully assembled. Ready to fly. And then, the program was simply killed.

Iโ€™ve been sitting with that quiet, heavy fact for a few hours now.

Think about the sheer human effort locked inside those unflown machines. The engineering, the late nights, the calculus, the welding of titanium, and the dreams of astronauts who trained for a lunar surface they would never touch. Those spacecraft became monuments to an aborted future. They are the physical embodiment of a decision to stop.

We do this in our own lives, don’t we?

We spend months, sometimes years, building the architecture of a new idea. We assemble the parts. We do the research, we write the drafts, we lay the groundwork for a career pivot, a new business, or a creative project. We build our own Apollo 18. We get it to the launchpad, fully fueled by our initial enthusiasm.

And thenโ€”we just stop. We pull the funding. We let the gravity of daily life, or the friction of doubt, kill the mission before the countdown even begins.

The tragedy of Apollo 18 wasnโ€™t that it failed; it was that it was never given the chance to experience the friction of the atmosphere. It never left the safety of the assembly building.

We are taught that patience is a virtue, but sometimes patience is just stubbornness in disguiseโ€”an excuse for not hitting the ignition switch. We convince ourselves that the conditions aren’t quite right, that the budget isn’t there, or that the timing is off. We leave our greatest capabilities sitting in the hangar, slowly gathering dust.

The return of Artemis yesterday was a reminder that we can always go back. We can dust off the launchpad. But the compound interest of abandoned projects is a heavy debt to carry.

The chaos of launch isnโ€™t an obstacle to the mission; it is the environment in which the mission earns its meaning.

If you have built somethingโ€”if you have put in the time, the sweat, and the architectureโ€”don’t leave it in the hangar. Let it fly. Even if it burns up, it is so much better to have launched than to remain perfectly intact and perfectly grounded.

Categories
AI

The Geometry of Speed

We are surprised when witnessing something move faster than our intuition expects. We are inherently wired to understand slow, compounding growth. We expect the long, grinding years of the plateauโ€”the quiet periods where nothing seems to happen before a sudden breakthrough.

I was looking at a chart Patrick Collison shared this morning, and it challenged that very intuition. Itโ€™s a simple, stark visualization: AI model intelligence relative to the formation date of the lab that built it.

If you trace the lines for Google and OpenAI on the right side of the graph, you see the history we’ve all lived through. Thousands of daysโ€”more than a decade of quiet, methodical, often unglamorous researchโ€”before their trend lines finally bend and shoot upward. It is a geometry of patience. Itโ€™s the visual representation of laying bricks, one by one, year by year, until you have a foundation sturdy enough to support the weight of a revolution.

And then, on the far left of the chart, there is a red line. MSL. The team behind Metaโ€™s new Muse Spark model, released today.

The red line doesnโ€™t curve. It doesnโ€™t slope. It simply strikes straight up, like a lightning bolt in reverse.

In roughly 200 days since formation, this new effort achieved a level of capability that took the early pioneers thousands of days to reach. Collison noted how much he loves seeing things done quickly, and itโ€™s hard not to share that specific, visceral thrill of seeing the boundaries pushed so aggressively.

I find myself thinking about the architecture of speed and what it means for the rest of us.

We spend so much of our lives absorbing the lesson that “good things take time.” We are taught that the crucible of meaningful work requires a long, slow simmer. And mostly, that remains true. The compound interest of human experience is real, and wisdom is rarely rushed.

Yet, every once in a while, a new paradigm emerges that doesn’t just accelerate the timelineโ€”it collapses it entirely.

The pioneers cut the agonizingly slow path through the jungle, taking the brunt of the time, the friction, and the missteps. The ones who followโ€”like xAI, Anthropic, and now MSLโ€”don’t have to clear the brush from scratch. They can look at the map, pave the road, and simply drive.

What does it mean for our own mental models when the timeline from “formation” to “frontier” shrinks from five thousand days to a few hundred?

It is a jarring reminder that the past pace of performance is not a law of physics.

I think about my own assumptionsโ€”how often I assume a project, a habit, or a societal shift will take a while, simply because similar things took a while in the past. We anchor our expectations to old geometry.

Meta’s release of Muse Spark is a technical feat, certainly. But the chart itself holds a broader, more human lesson. Itโ€™s a visual prompt to constantly re-evaluate our assumptions about how long the impossible is supposed to take.

The future doesn’t always arrive on a comfortable, predictable schedule. Sometimes, it just shows up unannounced, demanding we adjust our stride to keep up.