Categories
AI Business Investing Technology

The Scarcity Portfolio: Navigating Sovereign Debt, Wafer Bottlenecks, and Orbital Compute

Today I was watching the interview of Gavin Baker by Patrick Oโ€™Shaughnessy on his Invest Like the Best podcast. Like prior conversations this was another fascinating excursion into the mind of a sophisticated and very successful tech venture investor.

During the conversation, Patrick asked Gavin what agents he was using that were especially helpful and he mentioned one which summarizes YouTube podcasts and videos for him. Like most of us Baker just doesnโ€™t have the time to watch or listen to them himself so good summaries are really helpful.

Turns out Iโ€™ve been working on a Google Gemini Gem that does this for me. When Baker mentioned his I fired up the new Gemini 3.5 Flash model and asked it to summarize the Baker interview.

Later in the conversation Baker used the term โ€œbattlefield AIโ€ which caused me to go back to Gemini again to learn more about that. The results were so interesting that I asked Gemini to create a syllabus for a semester class on these subjects. After that I asked it to convert our whole conversation into a Markdown file so I could share it. Youโ€™ll find it below.

I found this whole experience pretty stunning. I came away very impressed with Gemini 3.5 Flash both for the quality of the responses but also the sheer speed. Wow!

Anyway I hope you enjoy the following!


Categories
Chemicals Petroleum Semiconductors

The Invisible Layer Beneath the Chip

At the edge of a semiconductor fab, nothing looks dramatic.

No flames. No smoke. No sense of weight.

Just pipes, valves, and a silence so controlled it feels artificial.

Itโ€™s easy, standing there, to believe that oilโ€”the old engine of the economyโ€”has been replaced by something cleaner, lighter, more abstract. Software, maybe. Or data. The kinds of things that donโ€™t spill.

But step a little closer, and the illusion breaks.

A modern fab is less like a factory and more like a chemistry experiment that never ends. Gases move through stainless steel arteries. Liquids are mixed, spun, deposited, stripped away. Surfaces are etched and re-etched until what remains is measured in atoms, not microns. The machinesโ€”Applied Materials, Lam Researchโ€”are precise, but they are not the story. The story is what flows through them.

Chemicals are doing the real work.

Not in bulk, the way oil once did. Not with force. But with specificity.

A barrel of oil is valuable because of its densityโ€”how much energy it contains. A liter of photoresist is valuable because of its selectivityโ€”what it allows to exist and what it removes. One powers motion. The other defines structure.

Structure is where the modern economy hides its value.

A semiconductor is not impressive because of what it consumes. Itโ€™s impressive because of what it constrains. Billions of transistors, each one placed, shaped, and insulated with a chemical discipline that borders on obsession. The difference between a working chip and a useless one is often a contaminant you cannot see.

This is a different kind of industrialism.

The 20th century scaled by adding moreโ€”more fuel, more steel, more throughput. The 21st century scales by removing everything that shouldnโ€™t be there. Purity is the limiting factor. Not how much you can move, but how precisely you can control.


From a distance, it can look like oil has become less important. The headlines have shifted. The glamour has moved on.

But the truth is more entangled.

Most of the chemicals inside a fab begin their lives as hydrocarbons. The solvents, the polymers, even some of the specialty gasesโ€”downstream of the same geological inheritance. Oil didnโ€™t disappear. It changed roles. It moved from the foreground to the substrate.

The question, then, isnโ€™t whether chemicals have replaced oil. Itโ€™s whether the economy has learned to express value differently.

Less in how much energy we can release. More in how carefully we can shape matter.


Semiconductors are the clearest example, but not the only one. Pharmaceuticals follow the same logic. Advanced materials, too. In each case, the breakthrough isnโ€™t scaleโ€”itโ€™s control. The ability to operate at the edge of whatโ€™s physically possible, and to do it repeatedly.

Which raises a quieter possibility.

That the defining resource of the next era isnโ€™t oil, or even chemicals.

Itโ€™s precision.

And chemistry is simply the language we use to achieve it.


Categories
News

Turning Out the Lights

[Note: see also The Murder of the Washington Post by Ashley Parker who writes: “Jeff Bezos, the billionaire owner ofย The Washington Post, and Will Lewis, the publisher he appointed at the end of 2023, are embarking on the latest step of their plan to kill everything that makes the paper special.”]

I was struck this morning by the brutal dismantling of the Washington Postโ€™s international reporting capabilities. The list of bureaus being shuttered by the paper reads like a roll call of the 21st centuryโ€™s geopolitical fault lines: New Delhi, Sydney, Cairo, the entire Middle East team, China, Iran, Turkey.

It is a stunning retreat.

But to view this merely as a corporate restructuring or a casualty of the dying business model of print journalism seems to miss a deeper, darker signal. This seems like an actual cultural symptom.

“The world is becoming less America-centric by the minute while the United States is becoming more America-centric than ever.”

At the exact moment technology has rendered the world indistinguishable from a single roomโ€”where a virus, a meme, or a financial crash in one corner sweeps across the floor to the other in secondsโ€”we are choosing to partition off that room.

There is a tragic symmetry to it. As the center of gravity shifts away from the us, the we respond not by engaging harder, but by closing its eyes.

When a newspaper that has shaped history decides that “reporting on the world” is no longer of valuable enough, it is doing more than saving money – although clearly thatโ€™s the primary motivation. It seems to be a surrender to the idea that what happens “over there” doesn’t matter enough to us because the people who were supposed to tell us it was coming are gone.

We seem to be turning out the lights in the rooms we find too difficult, believing that if we cannot see the world, the world cannot touch us. Feels wrong.

The moves closing these bureaus are part of broader cuts at the paper:

  • Closing the Sports section
  • Closing the Books section.
  • Restructuring and shrinking the Metro desk.
  • Suspending the Post Reports podcast.