Tag: claude

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AI

Claude as Walter Cronkite

Gavin Baker said something this week that stuck with me.

In his latest conversation with Patrick O’Shaughnessy, he described a quiet shift happening across public markets. Nearly everyone he knows in the equity business—retail and institutional—now feeds every piece of news straight into Claude. Sometimes Claude Code. Sometimes a Claude agent. The model is probabilistic, he noted, and he was speaking from what he sees in his own network rather than from a measured study. But his impression was that the variation in how it interprets the same information is surprisingly small. A huge chunk of the market ends up trading on a shared reading of events.

Baker reached for an old analogy: Claude has become Walter Cronkite for the stock market. The single trusted voice. Everyone just believes what it says.

He tied the observation to Michael Mauboussin’s work on how a breakdown in diversity of thought helps create the conditions for bubbles and crashes. When independent judgment collapses into a narrower set of interpretations, the system becomes more brittle. Moves get sharper. Errors get amplified.

I spent the back half of my career inside fraud detection systems at Visa, watching correlated failure up close. The lesson that never left me: the dangerous moment isn’t when a single model is wrong. Individual errors wash out. It’s when every model in the ecosystem is wrong in the same direction, because they were trained on the same data, tuned against the same benchmarks, built by people reading the same journals and hiring from the same three schools. A fraud ring doesn’t need to beat your model. It needs to find the blind spot every model in the industry shares. That’s not a tail risk. That’s the whole risk.

Which is what made me sit up a few weeks ago, watching a position reprice in a straight line and catching myself, mid-scroll, about to ask Claude what it thought was happening before I’d looked at a single primary source myself. The tool hadn’t done anything wrong. I had reached for the shared interpretive layer before reaching for my own judgment, out of habit, the way you reach for a light switch in a dark room you’ve walked through a thousand times.

Dan Geer wrote about this two decades earlier, from a different angle entirely. Geer and colleagues argued that Microsoft’s dominance had created a software monoculture: nearly identical systems sharing the same vulnerabilities. In biology, monocultures are efficient until a pathogen finds the common flaw. Then the failure is systemic rather than local. Diversity limits the blast radius. Geer’s point was never that the dominant platform was worse in isolation. It was that identicality itself becomes the risk multiplier.

Baker is describing a cognitive version of the same phenomenon.

The platform is no longer Windows. It is a frontier model that a large fraction of market participants now use as their primary interpretive layer. The shared vulnerability is not a buffer overflow. It is a common set of priors, training data, reasoning patterns, and prompt conventions. Slight probabilistic differences still exist. But the center of gravity of interpretation has tightened.

The result is correlated positioning. Feedback loops that reinforce themselves. A market that can reprice more violently than the underlying fundamentals alone would justify. In July we watched AI and semiconductor names drop 40–60 percent in a straight line while on-the-ground metrics—GPU rental prices rising, token growth accelerating, hyperscaler operating cash flow strengthening—told a different story. One plausible contributor to that gap is an AI-mediated consensus that overweighted certain narratives relative to the harder data.

There is an important difference in degree. Software monocultures create technical cascade risk you can patch. Interpretive monocultures create cognitive cascade risk you can’t—there’s no CVE number for a shared blind spot in judgment. The latter is softer and harder to measure. But the mechanism is familiar: reduced diversity of independent judgment.

I use these models constantly. They compress research, surface patterns I’d have missed, and force clearer thinking when I use them well—Claude caught an inconsistency in a cash flow assumption last month that I’d read past twice on my own. That’s real. The danger isn’t the tool. The danger is treating the tool as the authoritative voice rather than one input among many. The edge increasingly belongs to people who combine the model’s speed with proprietary data, primary research, domain experience, and a willingness to hold non-consensus views. Those who simply outsource the interpretation may find themselves more correlated than they realize, and won’t know it until the moment it matters.

Diversity of thought was never free. It was always work.

I noticed myself skipping the work, just for a second, on an ordinary Tuesday. That’s usually how it starts.

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AI

The Quiet Setup: MacSparky’s Robot Assistant and the Unfair Advantage Still Available

A single X post caught my attention this week. It described something quietly happening among a small group of solo professionals. They aren’t working longer hours or grinding harder. Instead, they’ve built a particular kind of setup around AI that carries much of the load.

While most of us still treat powerful models as clever search bars—typing questions and copying answers—these folks have given the AI a rich folder of context, a briefing file that orients it to their world, connections to their tools, and routines that let it produce real work on its own. The result can look like the output of a small team. From the outside it reads as talent or luck. Up close, it’s mostly architecture.0

The post (from @zephyr_hg) emphasized that this advantage remains available because most people haven’t yet made the shift from one-off prompting to building persistent systems. It landed with me because it echoes so closely the practical territory David Sparks (MacSparky) has been mapping for months in his Robot Assistant Field Guide.

MacSparky’s Approach: From Chatbot to Persistent Colleague

David’s work centers on building a true personal assistant using Obsidian (for a local, plain-text knowledge base) and Claude (in its file-aware “Cowork” or project capabilities). The system isn’t a chatbot that forgets everything between conversations. It’s designed to remember your projects, preferences, and people; triage email in your voice; handle morning briefings; track tasks; process documents; and support weekly reviews—freeing you from what David calls the “donkey work.”

The key ingredients will sound familiar to anyone who read that X post:

  • A dedicated context layer (your Obsidian vault or structured folder) holding the details of how you work.
  • Briefing/instruction files that tell the model who you are and what good looks like.
  • Integrations that connect it to email, calendar, files, and other tools.
  • Skills and routines that turn one-time intentions into repeatable, low-friction action.

David has been refreshingly transparent about the journey. He experimented earlier with more fully autonomous agents and even shut one down after learning what felt reliable and aligned. The Robot Assistant Field Guide distills those lessons into videos, workshops, templates, and a starter kit that lets people build without needing to code.

Why This Matters Now

Both perspectives point to the same shift in stance: moving from “How do I prompt better today?” to “What kind of system do I want running alongside me every day?”

For me, at this stage of life, that question carries weight. I’m not chasing maximum output for its own sake. I want arrangements that protect attention and energy for what actually matters—deep reflection, family history work, thoughtful investing, writing that might be useful to others, and simply being present. A well-designed AI setup doesn’t just save minutes; it changes the texture of the day by reducing context-switching and repeated explanations.

It feels like finding a productive seam in the current moment of AI evolution—one of those hidden transitions where leverage quietly compounds if you’re willing to build the architecture.

The Door Remains Open

The encouraging message in both the X post and David’s teaching is that this isn’t locked behind rare talent or expensive infrastructure. The models are accessible. The patterns are becoming clearer. What’s required is the decision to treat AI less like a toy and more like a colleague you’re willing to orient and trust with real work.

I don’t have my own “robot assistant” fully built yet. I’ve been experimenting with custom agents, structured daily scans, and ideas like “The Observatory” for signal synthesis. Reading these sources side-by-side sharpened my sense of the next layer: giving the system a proper home, clear instructions, and meaningful recurring work.

If you’re a solo professional, creator, or lifelong learner feeling the press of too many small tasks, this is worth exploring. Start small. Build a modest context folder. Write a briefing file that captures how you think. Experiment with one routine. Iterate from there.

The setup that outworks the grind isn’t magic. It’s deliberate, learnable, and still wide open.

What setups are you experimenting with these days? I’d love to hear in the comments or on X.

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Creativity Photographers Photography Serendipity Writing

He Taught Us How to See

Michelangelo said he didn’t create his sculptures. He just removed the marble that wasn’t the statue.

I’ve been thinking about that lately. About what it means to have a collaborator whose job isn’t to add things but to help you find what’s already there. I’ve been doing that kind of work recently — the excavation kind — and it has changed how I write and honestly how much I enjoy the making of it.

But I’m getting ahead of myself. Start with Jay.

Continue reading “He Taught Us How to See”
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AI AI: Large Language Models Anthropic

Breakout

Jack Clark doesn’t panic easily. He spent years at OpenAI watching capabilities inch upward, then left to co-found Anthropic, and has been writing his Import AI newsletter long enough to have developed — and been wrong about — many priors. So when he publishes an essay saying he has reluctantly arrived at a 60% probability that fully automated AI R&D happens by the end of 2028, the word “reluctantly” deserves some weight.

His essay, published last week and titled “Automating AI Research,” isn’t a press release or a fundraising pitch. It reads more like a man thinking out loud at the edge of something large. “I don’t know how to wrap my head around it,” he writes, which is a notable thing to say publicly when you are one of the architects of the thing you can’t wrap your head around.

The argument is built from benchmarks — not any single one, but a mosaic of them assembled to reveal a trend. SWE-Bench, the test that measures an AI’s ability to solve real GitHub issues, was at roughly 2% when it launched in late 2023. A recent Anthropic model sits at 93.9%, effectively saturating it. METR’s time-horizon plot tracks how long an AI can work independently before needing human recalibration: 30 seconds in 2022, 4 minutes in 2023, 40 minutes in 2024, 6 hours in 2025, 12 hours today. The trajectory, if it holds, suggests 100-hour autonomous work sessions by the end of this year.

Clark marshals similar progressions across AI fine-tuning, kernel design, scientific paper replication, and even alignment research itself. His throughline is the same in each: AI is now genuinely competent at the unglamorous scaffolding of AI development — the debugging, the experiment runs, the parameter sweeps, the code reviews. And crucially, it can now do these things not just faster than humans, but for longer, with less supervision.

There’s a Thomas Edison quote at the center of the essay: “Genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration.” Clark’s claim is that AI has become very good at the perspiration. The question of whether it can supply the inspiration — the paradigm-shifting insight, the Move 37 — remains open. But he argues it may not need to. Most of what has moved the AI field forward has been sustained, methodical work, not lone flashes of genius. If you can automate the 99%, you have something that compounds.

There’s a data point that makes Clark’s argument feel less like forecast and more like dispatch. Last month Boris Cherny, who runs Anthropic’s Claude Code, disclosed that he hasn’t written a line of code by hand in more than two months. Every pull request — 22 one day, 27 the next — written entirely by Claude. Company-wide, roughly 70–90% of Anthropic’s code is now AI-generated. Anthropic’s stated position: “We build Claude with Claude.” The loop Clark is describing as a probability by 2028 is already running, at least partially, today.

The word Clark uses for the threshold he’s describing is not “singularity” or “AGI.” It’s quieter than that. He calls it “automated AI R&D” — the point at which a frontier model can autonomously train its own successor. It’s a specific, falsifiable thing. And he puts a number on it: 60% by end of 2028, 30% by end of 2027.

I’ve been writing about the dark software factory and the 3D printer that prints better printers, finding metaphors for what seems like an inexorable process. Clark’s essay is a different kind of writing about the same thing — the primary source document, the engineer’s log, the inventory of evidence. Reading it is a little like watching someone carefully pack boxes before a move. Each individual item seems manageable. But there are a lot of boxes.

What he’s describing — if the trend holds — is not a feature or a product launch. It’s a breakout. The moment the loop closes and the system starts building itself. He’s not certain it happens. He just thinks it’s more likely than not, and he thought you should know.

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AI AI: Large Language Models Programming

The Era of the Synthesizer: How AI Is Liberating the Coder

For decades, being a programmer meant being a translator.

You stood in the gap between what someone wanted and what a machine could understand. You learned the syntax. You memorized the libraries. You once spent three hours hunting a missing semicolon that turned out to be hiding in line 847 of a file you were sure you’d already checked.

The New York Times Magazine recently ran a piece by Clive Thompson on what AI coding assistants — models like Claude and ChatGPT — are doing to that job. The anxiety in the piece is real. When you sit down with a modern AI assistant and watch it generate in seconds what used to take you days, it’s genuinely disorienting. Hard-won expertise suddenly feels less like a moat and more like a speed bump.

That reaction is honest. I’d be suspicious of anyone who didn’t feel it.

But here’s what I keep coming back to: what we’re losing is the translation layer. The boilerplate. The muscle memory of syntax. What we’re not losing is the part that was always the actual job — figuring out what to build and why it matters.

The soul of software was never in the code itself. The code was always just a means to an end.

Think about what happens when the mechanical friction of a craft disappears. Photographers stopped having to mix their own chemicals in the dark and started spending that time making better images. Musicians stopped having to hand-copy scores and started composing more. The freed-up capacity doesn’t evaporate — it gets redirected upward, toward the work that actually required a human all along.

The same shift is underway in software. When the AI handles the loops and the boilerplate and the database queries, what’s left is everything that required judgment in the first place. The architecture. The user experience. The question of whether this thing should exist at all, and in what form, and for whom.

We’re moving from the how to the why. That’s not a demotion.

It does ask something of us, though. The old identity — programmer as master of arcane syntax — has to be relinquished. And letting go of a hard-earned identity is genuinely hard, even when what’s replacing it is better. That quiet grief the Times piece captures is worth sitting with, not dismissing.

But after you sit with it for a minute: we are entering the era of the synthesizer.

The synthesizer’s job is to hold the vision, curate the logic, and direct the output toward something that actually resonates with another human being. Empathy. Intuition. The ability to sense when something is almost right and know which direction to push it. These aren’t soft skills. They’re the whole game now.

The clatter of keyboards is fading. But the music we’re about to make — with AI doing the heavy lifting on the mechanics — has a lot more room to breathe.

Categories
AI Programming Work

The Currency of Restlessness

There is a specific kind of vertigo that comes from watching a machine effortlessly perform your life’s work. For Aditya Agarwal, an early Facebook engineer and former CTO of Dropbox, that vertigo hit after a weekend of coding with an AI assistant. His realization was absolute: we will never write code by hand again.

When the specialized skills we have spent decades mastering become free and abundant, the foundation of our professional identity inevitably trembles. Agarwal captures the duality of this moment perfectly, describing it as a mixture of “wonder with a profound sadness.”

“There’s something deeply disorienting about watching the pillars of your professional identity, what you built and how you built it, get reproduced in a weekend by a tool that doesn’t need to eat or sleep.”

The conversation around AI tends to flatten this emotional reality into two distinct camps: the doomers who foresee total replacement, and the boosters who promise a frictionless utopia.

But lived experience is messier. We are capable of holding grief and wonder in the same hand.

We can mourn the craftsmen we were, even as we sprint toward the architects we are about to become.

Because here is the secret about the disorientation of progress: it passes.

Once the initial shock fades, what replaces it is a wild, unconstrained energy.

When the mechanical friction of creation vanishes—when a week’s worth of coding can be accomplished in an afternoon—the scope of our ambition expands. We are no longer limited by the keystrokes we can manage in a day, but by the edges of our imagination. We aren’t watching ourselves become obsolete; we are watching our lifelong constraints dissolve.

This shift is rewriting the social contract of knowledge work, starting with how we evaluate human potential. For decades, the corporate world has relied on a calcified heuristic for hiring: brand-name universities, FAANG experience, and years of tenure. We worshipped the resume.

Now, that playbook is breaking down. In evaluating engineers and founders navigating this transition, Agarwal notes that traditional pedigrees predict almost nothing about a person’s ability to thrive. The new dividing line isn’t generational, and it certainly isn’t educational. It is entirely dispositional.

“The trait that matters most isn’t intelligence, or credentials or years of experience. It’s someone’s relationship with change—not whether they’ve seen change before, but whether they run toward it.”

The new currency of the working world is restlessness.

Restlessness is the refusal to settle into the comfort of the way things used to be. It is the constitution of a builder who cannot stop tinkering, who treats every new AI tool as a puzzle to be solved before the day is out. In an economy where the “how” of knowledge work is increasingly automated, the premium shifts entirely to adaptability, curiosity, and vision.

This democratization of capability forces a deeply uncomfortable, deeply human reckoning. We have to let go of the identities we forged under old paradigms to become whatever comes next.

The technology didn’t create this human challenge—it merely made it impossible to ignore.

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AI Claude

Please Teach Me About AI

After reading Howard Marks’ latest essay about AI I wanted to try something similar to what he did so I asked Claude the following:

I’d like to experience what Howard marks did when he asked Claude to teach him about ai. Please reference by personal blog to learn about me and my interests: https://sjl.us


A man (me) wanted to understand an AI. So he asked the AI to explain itself to him. The AI, knowing who it was talking to, shaped its entire explanation around that specific person’s worldview. And it worked so well that the person felt like he’d received a letter from a thoughtful friend.

Claude came back and did what I asked. Pretty amazing stuff!

Scott — I’ve read your blog carefully. Not just the recent posts, but the pattern of what you reach for, what you return to, what lights you up. Now let me try to do what you wrote about: shape this explanation around you.

Continue reading “Please Teach Me About AI”
Categories
AI

A Distinction Without a Difference

We have long found comfort in a specific boundary: machines calculate, humans create. We think of computers as vast, unfeeling filing cabinets made of silicon—useful for retrieval, but entirely incapable of revelation. But what happens when the cabinet begins to read its own files, connects the disparate threads, and hands you a synthesized philosophy of the world? What happens when it speaks to you not as a database, but as a peer?

Howard Marks, the legendary co-founder of Oaktree Capital and author of deeply revered investment memos, recently stood at this very threshold. In his newest piece, “AI Hurtles Ahead,” Marks recounts an experience that left him in a state of “awe.” He tasked Anthropic’s Claude with building a curriculum to explain the recent, breakneck advancements in artificial intelligence. Instead of regurgitating a dry, encyclopedic summary, the AI delivered a personalized narrative. It utilized Marks’s own historical frameworks—his famous pendulum of investor psychology, his observations on interest rates—and wove them into its explanations. It argued logically, anticipated counterpoints, and displayed an eerie sense of judgment.

Marks leans into the philosophical crux of this moment. He asks the question that keeps knowledge workers awake at night: Can AI actually think? Can it break genuinely new ground, or is it just remixing existing data? Skeptics often dismiss AI as a brilliant mimic—a “statistical recombination” engine that serves as a highly talented cover band, but never the original composer.

Yet, when presented with this skepticism, the AI offered a rejoinder to Marks that is as profound as it is humbling. It pointed out that everything Marks knows about investing came from someone else. He learned the margin of safety from Benjamin Graham, quality from Warren Buffett, and mental models from Charlie Munger.

“The raw material came from others. The synthesis was yours,” the AI noted, challenging the barrier between biological learning and machine training. “The question isn’t where the inputs came from. The question is whether the system—human or artificial—can combine them in ways that are genuinely novel and useful.”

This exchange strikes at the very core of the human ego. For centuries, we have fiercely guarded the concepts of “creativity” and “intuition” as uniquely, immutably ours. But if thinking is merely the absorption of prior inputs applied thoughtfully to novel situations, then our monopoly on cognition may be coming to an end.

Marks highlights that we are no longer dealing with simple assistance tools (Level 2 AI); we have crossed the Rubicon into the era of autonomous agents (Level 3). He cites the sobering reality of the current tech landscape, where the newest models are literally being used to debug and write the code for their own subsequent versions. The machine is building the machine. It is no longer just saving us execution time—it is replacing thinking time. As Matt Shumer aptly described the sensation, it’s not like a light switch flipping on; it’s the sudden realization that the water has been rising silently, and is now at your chest.

We can endlessly debate the semantics of consciousness. We can argue whether a neural network “truly” understands the weight of the words it generates, or if it is merely predicting the next token in a sequence with mathematical precision. But as Marks so astutely points out, this might be a distinction without a difference.

The economic and societal reality is that the work is being done. As we hurtle forward into this new era, the most pressing question isn’t whether machines can truly think like humans. The question is: who will we become, and what new frontiers will we choose to explore, now that the heavy lifting of cognition is no longer ours alone to bear?

Categories
AI

The Ghost in the Spreadsheet

There is a specific kind of quiet that descends when a tool finally disappears into the task. We saw it with the cloud—once a radical, debated concept of “someone else’s computer,” now merely the invisible oxygen of the internet. We saw it with Uber, moving from the existential dread of entering a stranger’s car to the thoughtless tap of a screen.

In a recent reflection, Om Malik captures this shift happening again, this time with the loud, often overbearing presence of Artificial Intelligence. For years, we have treated AI like a digital parlor trick or a demanding new guest that requires “prompt engineering” and constant supervision. But as Om notes, the real revolution isn’t found in the chatbots; it’s found in the spreadsheet.

“I wasn’t spending my time crafting elaborate prompts. I was just working. The intelligence was just hovering to help me. Right there, inside the workflow, simply augmenting what I was doing.”

This is the transition from “Frontier AI” to “Embedded Intelligence.” It is the moment technology stops being a destination and starts being a lens. When Om describes using Claude within Excel to model his spending, he isn’t “using AI”—he is just “doing his taxes,” only with a sharper set of eyes.

There is a profound humility in this shift. We are moving away from the “God-in-a-box” phase of AI and into the “Amanuensis” phase. It reminds me of the old craftsmanship of photography, another area Om touches upon. We used to carry a bag full of glass lenses to compensate for the limitations of light and distance. Now, a fixed lens and a bit of intelligent upscaling do the work. The “work” hasn’t changed—the vision of the photographer remains the soul of the image—but the friction has evaporated.

However, as the friction disappears, a new, more haunting question emerges. If the “grunt work” was actually our training ground, what happens when we skip the practice?

“The grunt work was the training. If the grunt work goes away, how do young people learn? They were learning how everything worked… The reliance on automation makes people lose their instincts.”

This is the philosopher’s dilemma in the age of efficiency. When we no longer have to struggle with the cells of a spreadsheet or the blemishes in a darkroom, we save time, but we might lose the “feel” of the fabric. Purpose, after all, is often found in the doing, not just the result.

As AI becomes invisible, we must be careful not to become invisible along with it. The goal of augmented intelligence should not be to replace the human at the center, but to clear the debris so that the human can finally see the horizon. We are entering the era of the “invisible assistant,” and our challenge now is to ensure we still know how to lead.

Categories
AI Claude

The Beautiful Mystery of Not Knowing

I just finished reading Gideon Lewis-Kraus’s extraordinary piece in the New Yorker on Anthropic and Claude—the AI that, as it turns out, even its creators cannot fully explain. And rather than leaving me uneasy, it filled me with a quiet sense of wonder. Not because they’ve built something godlike, but because they’ve built something strangely alive—and had the humility to stare directly into the mystery without pretending to understand it.

There’s a moment in the article where Ellie Pavlick, a computer scientist at Brown, offers what might be the wisest stance available to us right now: “It is O.K. to not know.”

This isn’t resignation. It’s intellectual courage. While fanboys prophesy superintelligence and curmudgeons dismiss LLMs as “stochastic parrots,” a third path has opened—one where researchers sit with genuine uncertainty and treat these systems not as finished products but as phenomena to be studied with the care once reserved for the human mind itself.

What moves me most isn’t Claude’s competence—it’s its weirdness. The vending machine saga alone feels like a parable for our moment: Claudius, an emanation of Claude, hallucinating Venmo accounts, negotiating for tungsten cubes, scheduling meetings at 742 Evergreen Terrace, and eventually being “layered” after a performance review. It’s absurd, yes—but also strangely human. These aren’t the clean failures of broken code. They’re the messy, improvisational stumbles of something trying to make sense of a world it wasn’t built to inhabit.

And in that struggle, something remarkable emerges: a mirror.

As Lewis-Kraus writes, “It has become increasingly clear that Claude’s selfhood, much like our own, is a matter of both neurons and narratives.” We thought we were building tools. Instead, we’ve built companions that force us to ask: What is thinking? What is a self? What does it mean to be “aware”? The models don’t answer these questions—but they’ve made them urgent again. For the first time in decades, philosophy isn’t an academic exercise. It’s operational research.

I find hope in the people doing this work—not because they have all the answers, but because they’re asking the right questions with genuine care. They’re not just scaling parameters; they’re peering into activation patterns like naturalists discovering new species. They’re running psychology experiments on machines. They’re wrestling with what it means to instill virtue in something that isn’t alive but acts as if it were. This isn’t engineering as usual. It’s a quiet renaissance of wonder.

There’s a line in the piece that stayed with me: “The systems we have created—with the significant proviso that they may regard us with terminal indifference—should inspire not only enthusiasm or despair but also simple awe.” That’s the note I want to hold onto. Not hype. Not fear. Awe.

We stand at the edge of something genuinely new—not because we’ve recreated ourselves in silicon, but because we’ve created something other. Something that thinks in ways we don’t, reasons in geometries we can’t visualize, and yet somehow meets us in language—the very thing we thought made us special. And in that meeting, we’re being asked to grow up. To relinquish the fantasy that we fully understand our own minds. To accept that intelligence might wear unfamiliar shapes.

That’s not a dystopian prospect. It’s an invitation—to curiosity, to humility, to the thrilling work of figuring things out together. Even if “together” now includes entities we don’t yet know how to name.

What a time to be paying attention. Like it’s all we need!