Categories
AI Bicycles History

The Bicycle Shop

Part 2 of 3…

It is eleven-thirty on a Tuesday night and she is arguing with a language model about a spreadsheet.

Not arguing, exactly. That’s not the right word. She is coaxing. She is debugging. She is reading error messages that tell her almost nothing and rewriting prompts that almost work, and she has been doing this for two hours, and the spreadsheet still isn’t right, and she is going to try one more thing before she gives up and does it by hand. She is a data analyst at a mid-sized logistics company in Columbus, Ohio. She is not a researcher. She is not a founder. Nobody is writing about her. She is just a person trying to get a machine to do something useful, and the machine keeps almost doing it, and she keeps learning, in the gap between almost and done, something she couldn’t have learned any other way.

She doesn’t know what she’s learning. That’s the important part.

In 1892, two brothers opened a bicycle repair shop on West Third Street in Dayton, Ohio. The bicycle craze was at its peak — the safety bicycle, with its two equal wheels and chain drive, had just replaced the penny-farthing, that absurd high-wheeler everybody called loose change and the riders, with complete seriousness, called the ordinary. The brothers fixed flats and adjusted brakes and built custom frames and ordered parts from Coventry and kept the books and swept the floor. It was ordinary work. Nobody was writing about them either. What they were doing was accumulating, without knowing they were accumulating, a physical understanding of how machines move through space — the gyroscopic principles, the weight distribution, the thousand small calibrations that kept a rider from falling. They were learning in their hands what no university taught and no book fully contained.

Eleven years later they flew.

We tell the Wright Brothers story as a story about flight. It makes sense — flight is the thing, the miracle, the moment the world changed. But the actual story, the one that explains how Kitty Hawk was possible, is a story about a bicycle shop. It is a story about unglamorous preparatory work, about the education that hides inside the constraint, about what you learn in the gap between the machine that exists and the machine that should exist. Orville and Wilbur didn’t go to Kitty Hawk despite the bicycle shop. They went because of it. The shop was the point. They just didn’t know it yet.

We are in the bicycle shop right now.

The people building with AI today — the prompt engineers, the fine-tuners, the agent builders, the data analysts in Columbus arguing with spreadsheets at midnight — are doing work that looks, from the outside, like mere tinkering. Unglamorous. Iterative. Full of failure. The tools are awkward. The models hallucinate. The context windows run out at the wrong moment. Every solution opens three new problems. It feels like the penny-farthing: powerful enough to be useful, constrained enough to be maddening, requiring a kind of practiced vault just to get started.

But that awkwardness is the education.

Every time a prompt fails, the person writing it learns something about how the model thinks — about what it responds to, what it resists, where it gets confused, where it surprises you. Every agent that breaks in production teaches its builder something about the gap between what a model can do in a demo and what it can do under load, with real data, with users who don’t behave the way you expected. Every context window that runs out forces a decision about what actually matters, what is essential, what can be cut. These are not just technical lessons. They are epistemic ones. They are lessons about the nature of intelligence, about how meaning gets encoded and retrieved, about what it means for a machine to understand something versus to pattern-match on the surface of understanding.

The people learning these lessons right now don’t have a name for what they know. They just know it in their hands.

This is how it always works. James Starley’s craftsmen in Coventry bent and brazed bicycle frames by feel and experience, knowing things in their hands they couldn’t fully explain on paper. That embodied knowledge — the tight tolerances, the interchangeable parts, the discipline of making things that had to work — migrated into every bicycle shop that followed, crossed the Atlantic, and ended up in a shed in Ohio. The Wright Brothers didn’t invent precision manufacturing. They inherited it, absorbed it, and applied it to a problem nobody else had solved because nobody else had brought those particular hands to that particular problem.

The chain drive was the hinge. Before it, the bicycle’s design was locked — bigger wheel for more speed, higher and higher off the ground, until the machine teetered at the edge of what a human could survive. The chain drive broke the constraint. It decoupled the pedals from the wheel, let the gearing do what only size had done before, brought the rider back to earth. What had been a machine for athletes became a machine for everyone. What had been the ordinary became, almost overnight, something new.

We are waiting for the chain drive.

Not waiting passively — it is being built right now, in a hundred places at once, by people who mostly don’t know they’re building it. It might be the interface that finally makes AI genuinely accessible to people who can’t do the running vault. It might be the memory architecture that lets a model carry context the way a human carries context, not in a window but in something more like experience. It might be something nobody has named yet, something that will seem obvious afterward, the way all elegant solutions seem obvious after the fact.

What it will not be is the product of people who stayed away from the bicycle shop.

The analyst in Columbus closes her laptop at midnight. The spreadsheet is still not right. She has learned three things about how the model handles date formatting, two things about how it interprets ambiguous column headers, and one thing about her own assumptions that she didn’t know she was making. Tomorrow she will try again. She will get closer. At some point — not tomorrow, maybe not this year — she will get it right, and the thing she learned in the gap will be available to her for the next problem, and the one after that, and she will carry it forward without knowing she’s carrying it, the way craft always travels, in hands that have done the work.

She doesn’t know what she’s riding toward.

That’s the ordinary part. That’s always been the ordinary part.

Categories
AI Startups

A New Reason to Launch

“Before you launch, the speed you can build is now mainly limited by your imagination in what you tell AI. After you launch, the AI can watch your users and make improvements on its own.”
— Jared Friedman, Y Combinator

Jared Friedman watches hundreds of founders a year navigate the gap between idea and launched product. He notices patterns the rest of us miss. And what he’s describing above is not an incremental improvement in how software gets built. It is a change in the nature of the advantage.

This is a different kind of liberation than founders have known before.

The old liberation was launch early and the market corrects your wrong assumptions. Humbling, but useful. You were still the one doing the correcting, late at night, rewriting the onboarding flow based on what the data told you.

The new liberation he’s describing is something closer to multiplication. You launch, and now there are effectively more of you. The AI is watching session replays you’ll never have time to watch. It’s noticing the drop-off after step three that you’d have caught in month four. It’s holding the pattern of a thousand user paths simultaneously and asking what they mean. Your imagination seeded the thing. Reality is now feeding it.

That observation redraws the map cleanly. Pre-launch and post-launch used to differ in degree — you knew more after than before. Now they differ in kind. Pre-launch you are the sensing organ. Post-launch you’ve grown new ones.

The founders who feel this most viscerally, I suspect, are the ones building alone or in pairs — the people for whom every previous era of building had a hard ceiling imposed by human hours. They could only read so many support tickets. They could only run so many experiments. The ceiling is lifting and the feeling is of a room getting larger.

The core advice hasn’t changed. Paul Graham was saying “launch early” twenty years ago and it was true then. What’s changed is the reason underneath it — the mechanism that makes it true now is nothing like the one he had in mind.

The advice is twenty years old. There is a new reason and it is brand new. Most people haven’t noticed the swap yet. But they will.

That window does not stay open long.

Categories
Business Creativity Space SpaceX

Test like you fly!

There’s a phrase in the SpaceX documentary that keeps coming back to me: “Test like you fly.” It sounds like a slogan. The kind of thing that gets painted on a factory wall and eventually stops meaning anything. But the more I sit with it, the more I think it’s actually a philosophy that reaches well beyond rocket engineering.

The video — a 25-minute documentary SpaceX released last week — is ostensibly about Starship Version 3. New ship, new booster, new engines, new pad, new test site. Everything rebuilt. And they’re not shy about framing it as a reset, not an upgrade. One description I read called it “a quiet violence in progress.” That phrase stopped me cold, because it’s exactly right. Progress that looks violent from the outside — all that fire and metal — but is somehow quiet in its inevitability.

What moved me watching it wasn’t the engines. It was the engineers. SpaceX put the people on camera: the ones running cryogenic pressure tests at 80 Kelvin, stress-testing tank structures at 70% proof, explaining their failures and their data with the flat affect of people who have made peace with how long hard things take. There’s something almost monastic about it. You choose a problem that will not yield easily. You accept that the work will outlast any individual sprint of enthusiasm. You go back to it anyway.

I keep thinking about that in the context of what we’re doing with AI — the other enormous, fast-moving project that I spend so much of my mental energy on. The development arc is different: iterative releases, weeks not years between jumps, demos that blur into deployment. But the same principle is buried in there somewhere. The best AI teams I read about aren’t the ones shipping the most polished demos. They’re the ones building infrastructure for failure — evals, red-teaming, structured feedback loops. Test like you fly.

The Raptor 3 engines now produce 280 metric tons of thrust each. Thirty-three of them on a Super Heavy booster means over 17 million pounds of liftoff force. I have no intuitive frame for that number. What I do have a frame for is what those numbers represent: three years of iteration on top of five years before that, on top of a theoretical foundation laid by people who didn’t live to see any of this. There’s a compounding in that which I find genuinely moving. Nobody built the Raptor 3 in isolation. It came from everything that broke before it.

The hardest part of the documentary isn’t the engineering. It’s the implicit acknowledgment of how much remains undone. No Starship has yet achieved full orbital velocity with both stages intact. In-space refueling is still untested. The thermal protection systems need more work. And yet — SpaceX talks about unmanned cargo missions to Mars before the end of this year like it’s on the roadmap, not the wish list. That sentence used to sound like marketing. Watching the footage, it doesn’t anymore.

I’m not sure what to do with that feeling exactly. It’s something between awe and vertigo. We’re living in a moment when the audacious has started to have quarterly milestones. When the impossible keeps showing up on timelines and then — bewilderingly, uncomfortably — meeting them.

Test like you fly. Fail with rigor. Build the thing you actually need, not the thing you could more easily explain.

I keep turning that over. There’s a post in there somewhere about writing, too — about the drafts nobody sees, the structural tests that fail, the versions that taught you the one that worked. But that’s for another day.

For now I’m just sitting with the footage of those 33 engines lighting up, and the quiet weight of how much went wrong before they could do that.

Categories
AI AI: Large Language Models Claude

Make It Better

I came across a post on X this morning with some advice I immediately tried out. The advice – when working with an AI to help create writing or code – is to reply to the first pass the AI takes by asking it to “make it better”. The author suggested doing this multiple times.

I tried this out with Claude and enjoyed how it worked on just the first “make it better” pass. When I asked it to “make it better” it began by replying:

Certainly, I’ll refine the musing to make it more impactful and engaging. I’ll focus on enhancing the imagery, tightening the structure, and deepening the insights.

And indeed the second “better” pass that it wrote was even better. A fun experiment to try on your next use of an AI chatbot.