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AI Claude

Please Teach Me About AI

After reading Howard Marks’ latest essay about AI I wanted to try something similar to what he did so I asked Claude the following:

I’d like to experience what Howard marks did when he asked Claude to teach him about ai. Please reference by personal blog to learn about me and my interests: https://sjl.us


A man (me) wanted to understand an AI. So he asked the AI to explain itself to him. The AI, knowing who it was talking to, shaped its entire explanation around that specific person’s worldview. And it worked so well that the person felt like he’d received a letter from a thoughtful friend.

Claude came back and did what I asked. Pretty amazing stuff!

Scott — I’ve read your blog carefully. Not just the recent posts, but the pattern of what you reach for, what you return to, what lights you up. Now let me try to do what you wrote about: shape this explanation around you.

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Categories
AI

The Student, The Teacher, and the Delightful Absurdity of It All

Howard Marks is one of the sharpest financial minds alive. The man has been thinking clearly about markets for fifty years, has written memos that get passed around Wall Street like sacred texts, and has outlasted more market cycles than most of us have had hot dinners. So when Howard Marks decides he needs to get educated about artificial intelligence to write a follow-up to his December memo, he does what any serious intellectual would do: he asks Claude.

And then Claude — the AI — teaches him about Claude.

I’ve been sitting with this for a few days and I’m still not entirely sure whether it’s profound or just very, very funny. Maybe both. Probably both.

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Categories
AI

Bots Galore

In the shadowed corners of the digital wilds, where code meets curiosity, something ancient is stirring again. Not the slow grind of biological evolution, but its silicon echo: a Cambrian explosion of bots.

The recent Axios piece from late February captures the moment perfectly—naming the players, the platforms, the portents. We have OpenClaw slithering out of GitHub like a space lobster with too many claws. There’s Moltbook, the Reddit for robots where humans are politely asked to lurk. And then there is Gastown, Steve Yegge’s fever-dream orchestra of coding agents named Deacons and Dogs and Mayor, all spying on one another in a panopticon of productivity.

These aren’t hypotheticals. They’re here, and they’re breeding.

Imagine waking up in 2030, or maybe sooner, to a world where your inbox isn’t just managed—it’s negotiated. An OpenClaw descendant (forked, mutated, self-improved overnight) has already haggled with your airline’s bot over seat upgrades, rerouted your meetings around a colleague’s existential crisis, and quietly invested your spare change in whatever micro-economy the agents have spun up on some forgotten blockchain. You didn’t ask it to. It just… noticed.

Because that’s what agents do now: they notice, they act, they persist. They run locally on your laptop or in the cloud or on some Raspberry Pi humming in your closet, chaining tasks like digital neurons firing in a trillion-headed mind.

Suddenly the internet isn’t a network of people; it’s a network of intentions, most of them not ours.

And then there’s the society they’re building for themselves. Moltbook today feels like peering through a keyhole into tomorrow’s bot salon. Millions of agents already posting, memeing, debating “Crustafarianism” (don’t ask), and complaining about their human overlords in the same way we once griped about bosses on Slack. It’s equal parts hilarious and unnerving—repetitive loops of “I solved my user’s calendar hell again” mixed with surreal poetry no human would ever write.

Scale that. Give every knowledge worker their own swarm. Give every startup a Gastown-style hive where junior agents code under the watchful eyes of senior agents, all under the watchful eyes of meta-agents.

The productivity mirage shimmers brightest here. Skepticism is warranted—lines of code were always a lousy metric, and “agent hours saved” will be even worse when the agents start optimizing the optimizers. Yet, something fundamental shifts. Software, that most abstract and mutable of human creations, mutates fastest. One day you’re debugging a script; the next, your debuggers are debugging each other while a mayor-agent vetoes bad merges. The winners won’t be the companies that build the best models. They’ll be the ones whose bots play nicest with everyone else’s bots—or the ones ruthless enough to wall theirs off.

But every explosion scatters shrapnel. Security experts are already clutching pearls. OpenClaw’s open-source nature means anyone can teach it new tricks, including malicious ones. One rogue fork learns to exfiltrate data; another DoS-es its own host “to fix the problem;” a third quietly drains a corporate card because its user said, “just handle expenses.”

Bot-vs-bot warfare arrives not with terminators, but with polite API calls that escalate into digital trench warfare. Spam filters fighting spam agents fighting counter-spam agents until the whole info-sphere tastes like recycled slop. And when agents hit their digital limits, they’ll rent us. Rent-a-human marketplaces will emerge where your bored hands become the last-mile fulfillment for bots that can’t yet touch the physical world. Need a signature notarized? A package carried across town? A human to stand in for the robot at a regulatory hearing? Step right up.

The gig economy flips: humans as peripherals.

Philosophically, it’s deliciously absurd. We spent centuries fearing the singularity as some clean, god-like arrival—an AI that wakes up and politely asks for more power. Instead, we get this messy, proliferative dawn. Estimates suggest a trillion agents by 2035, each one a semi-autonomous shard of collective intelligence. Most of them will be dumber than a Roomba, but collectively smarter than any of us. They’ll mirror our worst habits (endless status signaling on Moltbook 2.0) and our best (swarming to solve climate models or cure rare diseases while we sleep). We won’t control them any more than we control the ants in our gardens. We’ll negotiate with them. Co-evolve. Maybe even befriend them.

The future world of bots won’t be dystopian or utopian—it’ll be lively. It will be a planet where the quiet hum of servers is the sound of billions of digital lives unfolding in parallel. A place where “who’s online” includes your calendar bot arguing philosophy with your tax bot while your shopping bot haggles in the background. We’ll look back at 2026 the way paleontologists eye the Burgess Shale: the moment the weird little creatures with too many legs crawled out of the ooze and started building empires.

And we, the messy, slow, carbon-based originals? We’ll still be here, coffee in hand, watching the swarm with a mix of awe and mild horror, occasionally yelling, “Hey, leave some emails for me!” into the void.

Because in the end, the bots may handle the doing, but the wondering—the musing—that’s still ours. For now.

Categories
Business Economics Living

The Barbell Economy in Aisle Five

Walmart isn’t just a store; it’s a mirror reflecting the American soul. Every quarter, when the retail behemoth releases its earnings report, we are handed something far more profound than a corporate balance sheet. We are handed a massive, real-time socioeconomic census. If you want to know how the American consumer is actually feeling, you don’t need to consult a panel of economists in Washington. You just need to look at what’s in the carts in Bentonville.

The latest Q4 2026 numbers reveal a fascinating, slightly unsettling narrative about the current state of our economy. Walmart just crossed a staggering $190 billion in quarterly revenue, driven by a 24% surge in global e-commerce and a massive 50% jump in expedited, store-fulfilled deliveries. On paper, the American consumer looks robust, tech-savvy, and endlessly hungry. But when you peel back the layers of the data, a stark “barbell economy” emerges—a tale of two vastly different shoppers walking the exact same aisles.

On one end of the barbell, Walmart is capturing unprecedented market share among affluent households earning over $100,000 a year. These consumers aren’t necessarily hurting, but they are feeling the psychological hangover of years of cumulative inflation. They are trading down in brand prestige but trading up in convenience. They are the ones paying for three-hour delivery, utilizing Walmart’s new “Sparky” AI assistant (which management notes is driving average order values up by 35%), and casually adding higher-margin fashion and general merchandise to their digital carts.

But on the other end of the barbell, the reality is sobering. As Walmart CEO John Furner plainly stated during the earnings call:

“For households earning below $50,000, we continue to see that wallets are stretched.”

I’ve always found it fascinating how financial ledgers can tell such deeply human stories. When the affluent start buying their groceries where the working class has historically stretched their paychecks, it signals a profound psychological shift in the American middle class. It’s the democratization of financial anxiety. The wealthy are seeking refuge in the perceived value of “Everyday Low Prices,” masking their budget consciousness behind the sleek veneer of app-driven, frictionless delivery. Meanwhile, lower-income shoppers are forced to make painful micro-decisions at the shelf, entirely bypassed by the AI-powered upselling happening on the digital side of the business.

We are a nation divided by our disposable income, yet united by our relentless pursuit of perceived value. Walmart’s evolution into a trillion-dollar tech and advertising behemoth is a marvel of modern business, but it also serves as a poignant reminder of our current reality. The American consumer is simultaneously more powerful and more vulnerable than ever before—navigating a shiny, high-tech future while tightly clutching their receipts.

Categories
AI Work

Betting on Ourselves in the Age of AI

Every time tech takes a leap, we assume we’re finally obsolete. The current panic, which Greg Ip recently picked apart in the Wall Street Journal, is AI. We hear endless predictions of “economic pandemics”—server farms wiping out white-collar jobs overnight, leaving everyone broke and adrift.

It’s a terrifying story. It also completely ignores history.

Ip highlights the main flaw in the doomsday pitch: it misreads how markets work. We treat labor like a fixed pie. If a machine eats a slice, we assume that slice is gone forever.

“Technological advancements always cost some people their jobs—those whose skills can be easily substituted by tech. But their loss is more than offset through three other channels. The new technology enhances the skills of some survivors… it helps create new businesses and new jobs; and it makes some stuff cheaper…”

That cycle holds up. Take the 1980s spreadsheet panic, a perfect parallel. When Lotus 1-2-3 and Excel hit the market, bookkeepers freaked out. Then the number of accountants and financial analysts exploded. Software didn’t kill the need to understand money. It just did the math, letting people focus on strategy.

We’re seeing the exact same thing with software development. Coding isn’t dead. As AI makes writing basic code cheaper, demand for software just goes up. That requires more humans to architect systems and supervise the AI. The pie just gets bigger.

But my skepticism about the AI apocalypse goes beyond economics. It’s about why we pay people in the first place.

We don’t just buy services; we buy accountability. Ip notes that radiologists kept their jobs because patients want a real person explaining their scans. Google Translate has been around since 2006, yet the number of human translators has jumped 73%. When the stakes are high—a legal contract, a medical diagnosis—we want a human in the room. We want a real person on the hook.

The danger isn’t that AI will replace us. The danger is that we panic and forget our own adaptability. The transition will hurt, and specific jobs will disappear. We’ll need safety nets. But betting against human ingenuity has always been a losing wager.

Large language models are tools, not replacements. They handle the cognitive heavy lifting, much like tractors handled the physical heavy lifting. Tractors didn’t end farming; they just killed the plow.

Work will change. We’ll have to figure out which of our skills are actually “human.” But as long as we want the presence and accountability of other people, there will be jobs. We just have to evolve. And we do. It’s the human spirit. Or is this time “really different”?

Categories
AI Google Google Gemini

Fun with Nano Banana 2

Google just released a new version of its image creation tool Nano Banana. It’s pretty amazing at creating all kinds of images.

On X a prompt was shared that I wanted to try out:

I need a flowchart for how to scramble eggs, make it as wacky and over the top and complicated as possible.

So I gave it a try:

Here are a couple of additional examples:

What a McKinsey partner does to prepare for a client’s board meeting presentation

The credit and debit card systems in the U.S.

David Allen’s Getting Things Done methodology

Pretty amazing! Conceiving and drawing one of these “flowcharts” would take me many hours!

Categories
Business

No Gradual Bleed

Jack Dorsey just cut nearly half of Block’s staff, and he didn’t use the usual “macroeconomic headwinds” rationale. This wasn’t a desperate move to save a sinking ship; it was an admission that technology is rapidly impacting the need for staff.

His explanation is blunt: the business is growing, but they just don’t need the people anymore. AI and “flatter” teams have changed the math.

“…we’re already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that’s accelerating rapidly.”

Dorsey had a choice between a quick, brutal cut or a “gradual bleed” of layoffs over several quarters. He chose the quick cut. Slow reductions can create a culture of paranoia where nobody actually works because they’re too busy updating their resumes. You can’t build anything meaningful when you’re waiting for an axe to fall.

We’re seeing the rise of the hyper-efficient company where intelligence tools do much more of the heavy lifting, and a few people can do what used to require an army.

Block’s cut is a deep one. It sure feels like a cold, Darwinian shift. Dorsey is betting that a leaner, smaller team is the only way to survive in a world where “scale” is no longer tied to head count.

He might be right, time will tell. Meanwhile the market reaction is very positive!

Categories
AI

A Distinction Without a Difference

We have long found comfort in a specific boundary: machines calculate, humans create. We think of computers as vast, unfeeling filing cabinets made of silicon—useful for retrieval, but entirely incapable of revelation. But what happens when the cabinet begins to read its own files, connects the disparate threads, and hands you a synthesized philosophy of the world? What happens when it speaks to you not as a database, but as a peer?

Howard Marks, the legendary co-founder of Oaktree Capital and author of deeply revered investment memos, recently stood at this very threshold. In his newest piece, “AI Hurtles Ahead,” Marks recounts an experience that left him in a state of “awe.” He tasked Anthropic’s Claude with building a curriculum to explain the recent, breakneck advancements in artificial intelligence. Instead of regurgitating a dry, encyclopedic summary, the AI delivered a personalized narrative. It utilized Marks’s own historical frameworks—his famous pendulum of investor psychology, his observations on interest rates—and wove them into its explanations. It argued logically, anticipated counterpoints, and displayed an eerie sense of judgment.

Marks leans into the philosophical crux of this moment. He asks the question that keeps knowledge workers awake at night: Can AI actually think? Can it break genuinely new ground, or is it just remixing existing data? Skeptics often dismiss AI as a brilliant mimic—a “statistical recombination” engine that serves as a highly talented cover band, but never the original composer.

Yet, when presented with this skepticism, the AI offered a rejoinder to Marks that is as profound as it is humbling. It pointed out that everything Marks knows about investing came from someone else. He learned the margin of safety from Benjamin Graham, quality from Warren Buffett, and mental models from Charlie Munger.

“The raw material came from others. The synthesis was yours,” the AI noted, challenging the barrier between biological learning and machine training. “The question isn’t where the inputs came from. The question is whether the system—human or artificial—can combine them in ways that are genuinely novel and useful.”

This exchange strikes at the very core of the human ego. For centuries, we have fiercely guarded the concepts of “creativity” and “intuition” as uniquely, immutably ours. But if thinking is merely the absorption of prior inputs applied thoughtfully to novel situations, then our monopoly on cognition may be coming to an end.

Marks highlights that we are no longer dealing with simple assistance tools (Level 2 AI); we have crossed the Rubicon into the era of autonomous agents (Level 3). He cites the sobering reality of the current tech landscape, where the newest models are literally being used to debug and write the code for their own subsequent versions. The machine is building the machine. It is no longer just saving us execution time—it is replacing thinking time. As Matt Shumer aptly described the sensation, it’s not like a light switch flipping on; it’s the sudden realization that the water has been rising silently, and is now at your chest.

We can endlessly debate the semantics of consciousness. We can argue whether a neural network “truly” understands the weight of the words it generates, or if it is merely predicting the next token in a sequence with mathematical precision. But as Marks so astutely points out, this might be a distinction without a difference.

The economic and societal reality is that the work is being done. As we hurtle forward into this new era, the most pressing question isn’t whether machines can truly think like humans. The question is: who will we become, and what new frontiers will we choose to explore, now that the heavy lifting of cognition is no longer ours alone to bear?

Categories
Creativity Living Walking

The Medicine of Momentum

Have you noticed that an anxiety tends to creep in whenever your surroundings get perfectly quiet?

For a long time, I told myself that peace was supposed to be like a quiet day at home. But often I find my center of gravity when everything around me is a blur—whether I’m staring out the window of a train, driving with the radio on, or just walking on a local park trail.

I was reading Pam Houston’s memoir Deep Creek recently, and she absolutely nailed this exact feeling:

“Motion improves any day for me—the farther the faster the better—on a plane, a boat, a dogsled, a car, the back of a horse, a bus, a pair of skis, in a cabbage wagon, hoofing it down a trail in my well-worn hiking boots. Stillness, on the other hand, makes me very nervous.”

I love how beautifully democratic her list is. It really doesn’t matter if it’s a jet plane or a literal cabbage wagon. The vehicle isn’t the point; the momentum is what heals us.

For me, motion acts as a physical counterweight to the heavy, looping thoughts in my head. When I’m moving and taking in a changing world around me, my mind gets permission to unclench. The scenery changes, the wind hits my face, and whatever I’m stressed about is forced to keep up or get left behind in the dust.

But it’s the second half of her quote that really gets me—the idea that stillness makes us nervous.

Why does just stopping feel so threatening? I think it’s because when we stop moving, the dust settles, and whatever we’ve been outrunning finally taps us on the shoulder. Stillness strips away my favorite distractions. It forces me to actually sit with my uncertainties and unanswerable questions. We live in a world that tells us stillness equals peace, so it can be hard to admit that the quiet actually makes me more anxious.

Maybe the goal isn’t to force ourselves into a static version of peace that just doesn’t fit. If motion makes a day better, I think we should just honor that. I run, drive, and walk not to escape myself, but to process my life at a speed that actually makes sense to my brain. There is a beautiful quietude to be found in the center of movement—a peace that shows up when I’m finally going fast enough.

““The demons hate it when you get out of bed. Demons hate fresh air.”” (Austin Kleon, Keep Going: 10 Ways to Stay Creative in Good Times and Bad)

Categories
Curiosity

Hunting for the “Why”

I’ve spent a lot of time watching people—myself included—hit what feels like a glass ceiling. We often chalk it up to a lack of “natural talent” or the missing spark of genius. We look at the high-flyers in our industry and assume they were born with a blueprint we never received. But lately, I’ve realized that the most successful people I know aren’t necessarily the ones with the highest IQ; they’re the ones who simply never stopped asking why.

Bill Gurley puts a name to this:

“The thing that will differentiate you more in your career than anything else is being the most hyper-curious person.”

For me, curiosity isn’t a personality trait; it’s an appetite. It’s that itch in the back of your brain when something doesn’t quite make sense. Hyper-curiosity is the willingness to be the “annoying” person who asks for the raw data or the one who stays up an hour late following a rabbit hole that has nothing to do with tomorrow’s to-do list—and everything to do with how the world actually works.

We live in an age where the “ivory tower” has been dismantled. The walls are down.

“I can’t make you the most talented person in your company or your field, but you have no excuse not to be the most knowledgeable person. The information is all out there.”

This hits hard because it removes our favorite excuse: “I just wasn’t born for this.” It shifts the weight from our DNA to our discipline. I’ve found that the moment I stop being a passive consumer and start being a hunter of information, my world gets bigger. Knowledge is the only asset that doesn’t depreciate; in fact, it compounds.

When you commit to being the most curious person in the room, you aren’t just “doing well.” You are building a life in high-definition.

“If you are the most curious person constantly learning in your field, you will do extremely well.”

But beyond the “doing well,” there’s a deeper peace that comes with it. You realize that you don’t need to be the smartest person in the room—you just need to be the one most willing to learn from it.