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AI Creativity History Space SpaceX

The Patience of a Noisy Line

Paul Baran was laughing when he told me about AT&T.

This was before I joined the board of Telebit, his company, a seat I would hold because he later asked me to, which sounds like a credential and was really a gift. At the time we were simply meeting. Before he said a word about the idea the company was built on, he wanted me to know what had happened the first time he tried to explain packet switching to the people who owned the telephone network.

It had happened years earlier, in the early days. They heard him out. They decided it would never amount to anything. He told me the story the way you tell a story about an old friend’s worst haircut, with his whole face, delighted. What amused him was not that they were wrong. It was how complete their confidence was, the particular serenity of people who have never once had to imagine the thing that is about to replace them. Amusement, I would come to understand, was his entire theory of the people who said no.

Then he explained the modem.

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Categories
AI Business Software

Ice Rinks

Nobody in the Valley thinks about ice rinks.

That line sat with me longer than the rest of a conversation between Patrick Collison and Amjad Masad. Collison runs Stripe. Masad runs Replit. Someone asked, more or less, where Collison would look if he were starting over. He did not name an AI lab. He named the software nobody fashionable wants to touch.

I have heard versions of this advice for years. Vertical SaaS. Boring industries. Schlep blindness. What felt new was the timing. The distance from an idea to the first dollar has roughly halved. On Stripe’s numbers, the time to reach a million, ten million, even a hundred million in recurring revenue is about half what it was in the last SaaS boom. Twenty percent of new startups now charge a customer inside thirty days, up from eight percent in 2020. New business creation on the platform nearly doubled in a year, a bigger jump than the pandemic spike.

When building the thing was the scarce skill, the programmer won. When a working product can be stood up quickly, the scarce skill is knowing why the old thing is still tolerated. The domain expert gets the edge. A teacher who understood schools built MagicSchool on Replit and rode it toward a company later described as worth half a billion dollars. The insight was the teacher’s. The tools closed the gap.

Collison’s map has three drawers.

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Categories
Creativity History

The Pioneer

Asa Whitney came home from China with a number in his head, and the number was thirty.

He was a New York dry-goods merchant, born in North Groton, Connecticut, in 1797, and he had made his money in the China trade. He knew what distance cost. The voyage out, in 1842 and 1844, ran the long way, around the Cape or by way of Europe, a hundred to a hundred and fifty days under sail. Somewhere in all that water the arithmetic turned over. Run a railroad to the Pacific, put steam on the far side, and the trip shrinks to about a month. He had seen an early British locomotive in 1830, and now the old impression had a purpose.

He was not an engineer, and the plan shows it. It was simple, almost serene. A line of about 2,160 miles from Lake Michigan to the mouth of the Columbia, somewhere between the 42nd and 45th parallels. Add the roads already built or planned east of the lakes and New York to the Pacific came to roughly 3,000 miles and eight days. He put the cost at $65 million, fifty to build and fifteen to run the road until it could pay its own way, and he admitted the figure was made without a real survey.

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Categories
IBM Living

Meeting Cher

Some memories sit untouched for fifty years and then show up without warning. This one arrived yesterday, while I was thinking about our time in the Maryland suburbs of Washington, DC.

Before moving to Montgomery County (and living there twice!), I spent some time at the IBM Washington Systems Center in Gaithersburg. The WSC had a very large computer room filled with the various IBM mainframe models that were current in that era.

I was then working for IBM in San Francisco, and one of my projects was responding to an RFP from the State of California for the Teale Datacenter. As part of that effort, we had to run a large benchmark supplied by the State to demonstrate the power and performance of the specific IBM configuration we were proposing. I spent a month at the WSC preparing for it and stayed at the Holiday Inn across the street.

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Categories
Creativity Curiosity Living Walking

The Silence of the Concrete Saint

I was alone in the car when I noticed, which is the wrong way to notice anything.

Something was off about the hillside above the Crystal Springs rest stop. I couldn’t have told you what. It took a mile, maybe more, for the shape of the absence to harden into a fact. The statue was gone.

Twenty-six feet of concrete sprayed over a steel frame. A robed Junípero Serra, kneeling, one arm thrust west toward the missions, set above Interstate 280 in the bicentennial year and left there to watch the Peninsula go by. A thing so large and so constant that the eye had stopped registering it, the way you stop hearing a refrigerator. And then, sometime in the last few months, nothing. A patch of bare earth. No one beside me to ask whether they’d seen it go.

This is what the road does. At highway speed the world beside the freeway is a blur you agree not to examine. The statue stood behind a locked gate, and the people who passed it by the hundred thousand did what the road trains everyone to do. They looked ahead.

It took a walk to catch up with it.

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Categories
Interstate 280 Podcasts

The Bridge Built for Physics: Interstate 280

A curving six-lane freeway follows a ridge beside a long reservoir, surrounded by rolling California hills covered in oak and chaparral, glowing in warm golden-hour sunlight.

Here’s the fourth podcast episode in the story of Interstate 280 on the San Francisco Peninsula – the bridge over the Stanford Linear Accelerator.

Here are the earlier episodes:

  1. The Road to Ruin
  2. The Boulevard
  3. Built from the Top Down

Categories
AI

The Tempo of the Brake Pedal

Martin Casado said something this week that snapped a few loose thoughts into place. The frontier labs missed Jev, he argued, because they are building beings that speak. Software needed a model that chooses.

That reads like a product distinction. It is really a habit of mind.

For a few years we have taken a machine born in chat — text in, text out — and tried to cram it into ordinary programs. Parse the JSON. Retry when it rambles. Plead with it to stay inside the schema. Hope it does not invent a field. Casado’s word for this was right: janky.

Jev takes the other fork. Don’t generate the paragraph. Give the model a state and a menu. Let it pick, score, or answer yes or no, with a probability attached, in one pass, cheap enough and fast enough to live inside a loop. Train it for that job instead of training it to sound like someone worth talking to. The name winks at Jevons: make the unit of intelligence cheap enough and software will call it constantly. That is not a chatbot. That is a function.

I keep finding the same fork elsewhere.

Full self-driving is not AGI on wheels. AGI is the being. Driving is the chooser. The car does not need a meditation on the yellow light. It needs brake, hold, go, at a tempo no essay can match. Tesla and Waymo are not succeeding or failing as philosophers. They are succeeding or failing as systems that pick from a small set of actions in a messy world, millions of times a day.

Humanoid robots make the same confusion look even more like the story we want it to be. Two legs, two hands, tidy the kitchen. The demo is speech and generality. The work underneath is neither: a high-frequency controller choosing stance and contact, and a slower chooser deciding which mug, which drawer, abort or continue. Language is a compiler of intent. It is a poor motor cortex.

We blur the layers because the being is the story we want to tell. The chooser is the product that has to work.

There is a flattering counterargument: wait for the general model, and it will absorb the narrow jobs. Sometimes it will. But a lot of software’s value does not live there. It lives in the call that has to be right, cheap, and on time — route the ticket, score the lead, decide the grasp, stay in the lane. A being is optimized to continue. A chooser is optimized to decide. Different losses. Different machines.

None of this makes the labs foolish. If you are trying to build God, God speaks in natural language. That is a coherent ambition. It is just not the same ambition as making ordinary software reliable. We spent a few years pretending those were the same project. Jev is a reminder that they never were.

Labs build speakers. Software, cars, and robots need choosers. Speech is a wonderful interface and a miserable control loop.

I have been as taken as anyone by the being — the voice, the fluency, the sense that something is in there. Curiosity pulls that way. So does the stage. But the quieter question, the one Casado is actually pointing at, is whether most of the work was ever conversation at all. Maybe it was always a menu, a state, and a choice — and we were paying a novelist to raise his hand.

Somewhere right now a self-driving car is holding at a yellow light, saying nothing at all, deciding everything.

Categories
Aging Living

On Holding Hands

A musing after Roger Rosenblatt’s “I Want to Hold Her Hand“

It is a Tuesday in early fall, the kind of afternoon that doesn’t announce itself as anything special, and Roger Rosenblatt and his wife, Ginny, are walking somewhere they’ve probably walked a thousand times before. Their hands are together. Nobody watching them would think twice about it, because two old people holding hands on a sidewalk is one of the least remarkable sights in America. That’s the whole point. It isn’t remarkable. It’s just true.

Here’s what you’d need to know about them, if you were the kind of person who noticed. They held hands in high school, decades before either of them had a name for what that meant. They’ve held hands through the ordinary accumulation of a life — the mortgage, the kids, the funerals, the doctor’s appointments, the small emergencies that never make it into any story anyone tells at a dinner party.

And now they’re old, and the hands doing the holding aren’t the hands that started this.

Rosenblatt writes about the veins, the discoloration, the wrinkles like roads on a map nobody drew on purpose, and you get the sense he’s spent a lot of quiet time looking down at his own hand, trying to place when exactly it stopped belonging to the boy who first reached for a girl’s hand in some hallway sixty-some years ago.

There’s a version of this story in every small town in the country, if you know where to look. The couple at the diner counter splitting a slice of pie — not out of economy anymore, just habit. The man in the church parking lot with his hand under his wife’s elbow instead of around her fingers, because her balance isn’t what it was, and calling it the same thing anyway. Because it is the same thing.

Love, at this age, isn’t the version you see in the movies. It’s structural. Load-bearing. It’s what keeps two people upright once the friends have started dying off and the noise of the world has gone quiet around them.

Rosenblatt calls himself and Ginny a shaky Hansel and Gretel, lost in the woods. But read it again. They’re not lost. They’ve been down this path before, more times than either of them could count, and they know it by feel now, the way you know a staircase in the dark — not because you can see it, but because your hand remembers where the rail is.

Take my hand. Not to find the way. Because you already know it, and I want to walk it with you anyway.

Categories
Interstate 280

The Most Beautiful Freeway

A curving six-lane freeway follows a ridge beside a long reservoir, surrounded by rolling California hills covered in oak and chaparral, glowing in warm golden-hour sunlight.

I’m writing a book about Interstate 280 — how its route was chosen, and who chose it. I’ve reached the point where I need your help.

Drive Interstate 280 south from San Francisco on a clear morning and the city falls away fast. Eight lanes curve through rolling hills — oaks, grassland, the reservoirs flashing between the ridges. No billboards. No clutter. Just the road, doing exactly what a road is supposed to do, in a landscape that looks like it was arranged for the purpose.

People call it the world’s most beautiful freeway. I’m writing its biography.

Not a coffee-table book of pretty pictures, and not an engineering manual. The question that hooked me is simpler and harder: how did this particular road get to run exactly here? Who decided, who objected, what did it cost, and who paid? Every mile of freeway is an argument that somebody won. I want to know who argued, and what the winning cost.

My model is Michael Wallis’s Route 66 — a main narrative braided with what he called “sideshows”: short detours into the odd, human, funny details that accumulate around any great road. The book opens in Millbrae. Its center of gravity is a chapter I call “The Ridge Bargain,” built around a single question: what did it cost to move four miles of Interstate off a city’s drinking water?

For the last few months I’ve been in the archives — the San Mateo County History Museum, the Caltrans transportation library, the Cañada College archives — and the documents have been generous with dates and votes and contract numbers. I can now tell you, for instance, that the final seven miles of 280 opened on September 7, 1973, at a cost of $21 million.

What the documents can’t give me is people. And that’s why I’m writing this.

The open questions

These are the things I most want to know — the gaps no archive has filled:

  1. November 1961. Three years after the state adopted the Skyline Boulevard alignment, its engineers suddenly revived an older plan to run the freeway through Millbrae — over El Camino Real, wiping out the Kings Drive-In on Millbrae Avenue. San Bruno said yes; Millbrae held out. Nobody has ever said why the route came back from the dead. Was it engineering? Politics? Leverage? If your parents or grandparents followed San Mateo County politics in those years, I’d like to hear what they said about it at the dinner table.
  2. The Ridge Bargain. In 1968–69, four miles of Interstate got moved off San Francisco’s watershed. The deal involved the city, the county, the state, and the federal government. But who actually sat at the table? I have agencies; I need names.
  3. January 1968. The Highway Commission approved a realignment that month. How did Redwood City and Woodside react? Who announced it, and how did the local papers play it? The big-city dailies missed most of this story; the weeklies might not have.
  4. The scenic highway. The Peninsula stretch of 280 is a designated state scenic highway, which is why you’ll never see a billboard on it — unlike US 101, just to the east. Who pushed for that designation locally, back in the 1960s? Somebody had to, before the easements were signed.
  5. The construction years. The Crystal Springs section went up between 1970 and 1973 — grading, drainage, watershed protection, three vista points. Did you work on it? Drive past it every day? Photograph it? The union papers covered it; the family albums might have the better pictures.
  6. The statue. For 49 years, a 26-foot concrete Junipero Serra stood at the Crystal Springs rest area — dedicated in 1976, demolished in 2025. Half a century of graffiti, proposals, and “turn left at the statue” directions. What are your memories of it?
  7. The road’s own police. The California Highway Patrol has owned this road since before most of it existed. I’m hoping to ride along with them. But first: did you patrol 280, get stopped on it, or know someone who did — back when the limit was 55 and the rest areas were full?
What I’m looking for

Photographs most of all — construction, the corridor before the freeway, the rest areas in their prime, the statue. Then documents: clippings, letters, planning papers, company newsletters, anything in a shoebox. Then memories: what it was like to drive it new, to live next to the fight, to work the job. And introductions: retired Caltrans District 4 engineers, CHP officers, planners, county old-timers, anyone who was in the room.

If you can help, please reach out to me using either the Contact page on this site or directly at scott@loftesness.com

Somebody should try to tell the story of this road. I’ve decided that somebody is me. But I can’t do it alone — and I have a feeling the best material isn’t in any archive. It’s in your scrapbooks, journals, or maybe upstairs in the attic.

Categories
AI

Keep That Thread Running

Full disclosure, same as last time: Instinct helped draft this post about working with Instinct. That was the honest way to do it with Leif, and it’s the honest way now.

Instinct is the other AI assistant in my life (see my earlier post about Muse). It lives in my iMessage, a thread like any other — no app, no dashboard. I text it the way I’d text a person, in short bursts between other things. The first message was September 13: “Hey Instinct!” Two days later I gave it the book.

I’m writing a history of Interstate 280, and inside the first hour we had the shape of the research: the personalities behind the routing decisions, the archives worth calling, a working list of what I call “side shows” — the statue, the water temple, the 22-foot median, button-copy signs. When it offered to keep digging on its own and check in weekly, I gave it the three words that defined the arrangement: “Yes keep that thread running.”

It does. Last week the thread came back with a 1964 issue of California Highways and Public Works crediting architect Mario Ciampi with the first I-280 contract — the curved deck edges, the varied piers, the railings drawn to avoid metal guardrails. Same issue, same gift: the median I’d been describing as a fixed 22 feet was actually built variable-width across the watershed. That’s the correction that saves a chapter from carrying a bad fact.

The on-demand dives go all the way down. I found the audio of a Caltrans engineer’s oral history on archive.org — an hour and forty minutes, no transcript anywhere — and it worked straight from the audio. I sent it two days of AI-conference livestreams asking for transcripts, community notes, the whole nine yards, and it came back with a report, a source ledger, and an honest negative finding: the community-notes document I wanted doesn’t exist. When I asked for the freeway’s 1973 opening brochure, it reported that no cataloged copy exists anywhere — then handed me the leads to work anyway. Sourced absence is an answer. I’d rather hear that than a confident maybe.

When the book thread got long, it pulled everything — people, side shows, archive routes, open questions — into a single research page I can hold in my head. I told it thank you and meant it.

It’s also my markets desk and my magazine desk. A profile I’m circling started at 4:48 in the morning with “Someone should do a profile of Dylan Patel,” followed by “Yes. Go for it.” Minutes later: “What about citrini” — which turned out to be the same story, since SemiAnalysis had acquired Citrini the week before. It fields my investor-day puzzles (the stock slides while management presents — which explains which?), gives me its best bet when I ask for one, and labels inference as inference so I don’t have to.

The small stuff adds up too. When was the last US oil refinery built? 1977 for the big kind, 2022 if you count the small ones — EIA’s answer, in under a minute. Five cash-secured put candidates, screened the tastytrade way. My New Balances — the model I re-buy, in just my size — at a discount: it researched, shortlisted, and then waited, because purchases happen when I say so and not before.

The strangest moment so far: I sent it a Loom of Sequoia’s Pat Grady giving an AI talk and asked for the highlights. It read the full caption track instead of the page summary — and there in the highlights was Grady name-checking Instinct itself as one of the “magical apps.” I watched a Sequoia partner praise the assistant I was using to watch him.

How I work it: terse. “Sure.” “Wow.” “New subject:” — announced or not, and it keeps up either way. It flags what it can’t verify instead of papering over it, and for anything going out under my name I read every word first. Same arrangement as with Leif: the tool is fast and tireless and mostly right. I’m the judgment.

What’s different is the division of labor. Leif runs the standing operation — the briefings, the audits, the daily drumbeat. Instinct is the research desk: it works in bursts, the way I do, and keeps a thread running in the background in between. Two weeks ago I’d never heard of Mario Ciampi. Now he’s in the book.

If you want to try Instinct yourself, I have a handful of invites, first come first served: https://app.instinct.com/invite?t=7qmw2a3u2vjz4nkvi235hhqloy&preview=imessage