Tag: Morgan housel

Categories
Assumptions Creativity

The Question Before the Question

I spent hours with Paul Baran over the years, and I never quite got used to his mind.

He asked questions you wouldn’t expect. Not provocative questions, not contrarian ones — just questions that arrived from a slightly different angle than you’d prepared for. And the strange thing was the aftermath. You’d hear the question, feel briefly disoriented, and then — almost immediately — think: of course. Now I understand.

Paul invented the Telebit Trailblazer modem. If you were around in that era you remember what modems were: devices that negotiated a fixed speed and held it. The whole industry operated that way. Speed was a spec, a number on the box, a ceiling you bumped against.

Paul looked at the same problem and saw something different. He didn’t ask how fast a modem could go. He asked what a specific telephone circuit was actually capable of — this wire, right now, in these conditions. The Trailblazer was adaptive. It listened to the line before it decided anything. It milked transfer speeds out of circuits that conventional modems had already given up on.

That’s not a new technique. That’s a new question.

I’ve thought about Paul a lot since then, trying to locate the thing that made his mind work differently. I don’t have a single moment to point to. No whiteboard revelation, no conversation I can replay. Just the accumulated residue of hours in the room with someone who seemed to be operating on different premises than everyone else — asking the question that preceded the question the rest of us were answering.

Morgan Housel quotes Visa founder Dee Hock in Same As Ever: “New ways of looking at things create much greater innovation than new ways of doing them.”

I read that and thought of Paul immediately. What I took from all those hours with him wasn’t a method or a framework. It was simpler and harder than that — a habit of suspicion toward the assumptions already in the room. The ones everyone had agreed to without quite deciding to. The fixed speeds no one was questioning.

I still hear his voice when I catch myself accepting an assumption. Is it, though?

Categories
Living

When Patience is Just Stubbornness in Disguise

We are taught from childhood that patience is the ultimate virtue. Good things come to those who wait. Rome wasn’t built in a day.

We elevate patience to a saintly status, conditioned to believe that if we simply hold on long enough, the universe will inevitably reward our suffering with success.

In his book Same as Ever, Morgan Housel offers a piercing observation that shatters our romanticized view of waiting:

“Patience is often stubbornness in disguise.”

That single sentence is a quiet earthquake. It forces us to examine the things we are holding onto and the real reasons why we refuse to let them go.

We like to tell ourselves we are being patient—with a stagnant career, a fractured relationship, or a creative project that refuses to take flight. The label of “patience” feels noble. It feels righteous. It protects our ego from the sharp, uncomfortable sting of failure.

But if we strip away the noble veneer, what remains is often simple, unyielding stubbornness. It is the refusal to adapt, the refusal to admit defeat, and the refusal to accept that the world has changed while we were standing still. “I’m staying the course” is much easier to say than “I’m terrified to admit I made a mistake.”

I think about the seasons in my own life where I mistook one for the other.

I held onto projects that had lost their spark, telling myself that the breakthrough was just around the corner, just one more iteration away. I’ve held on to failing investments for far too long.

In hindsight, I wasn’t practicing patience. I was practicing avoidance. I was avoiding the grief of letting go and the daunting reality of starting over from scratch.

So, how do we distinguish between the two? How do we know when we are nurturing a slow-growing seed, and when we are merely digging our heels into the dirt and being stubborn?

The difference lies in our relationship with reality. True patience involves a quiet confidence and an active engagement with the present. It requires us to make incremental progress, to observe the feedback the world gives us, and to adjust accordingly. Patience is flexible yet realistic.

Stubbornness, on the other hand, is rigid. It ignores feedback. It closes its eyes to the changing environment and insists that reality bend to its will.

It takes vulnerability to look at something you’ve poured your heart and time into and say, “This isn’t working, and I am choosing to walk away.” It is not a weakness to change your mind when the evidence suggests you should. Often, it is the ultimate act of self-awareness. Annie Duke wrote a whole book about quitting being an underutilized choice.

Sometimes, the most productive thing we can do with our time is to stop waiting, let go, and walk in an entirely new direction.

Categories
Living Planning Serendipity

The Architecture of Surprise

We humans are endlessly obsessed with the horizon. We stand on the shores of the present, squinting into the distance, trying to discern the exact shape of tomorrow. We build elaborate models, draw flawless trendlines, and construct five-year plans with the meticulous care of a master architect drafting a blueprint. And, to our credit, most of the time we are remarkably accurate about the mundane trajectory of it all. We know when the seasons will change, how our compound interest should accumulate, and roughly where our careers might lead if we just keep putting one foot in front of the other.

“We are very good at predicting the future, except for the surprises—which tend to be all that matter.”
— Morgan Housel, Same as Ever

It is a profound truth wrapped in a deceptively simple observation.

When we look back at the grand sweep of history—or simply the quiet narrative of our own individual lives—the defining moments are almost never the ones we carefully penciled into our calendars.

The things that irrevocably alter our trajectories are the sudden shocks, the absolute anomalies, the unexpected phone calls on a random Tuesday afternoon.

Think about the turning points of the last decade. The events that completely rewired our global society, our economies, and our daily habits were not predicted by think tanks, algorithms, or pundits. They were the blank spaces on the map. They were the surprises.

On a personal level, I find this resonates with almost uncomfortable accuracy. If I examine the hinges upon which my own life has swung, they were completely invisible to me until the exact moment I arrived at them. The chance encounter in a crowded room that led to a lifelong bond; the sudden, jarring loss that forced a complete re-evaluation of my priorities; the seemingly disastrous failure that ended up opening a door I hadn’t even known existed. I have spent so much of my life optimizing the straight lines, unaware that life itself is actually lived in the zig-zags.

We suffer from a collective illusion of control. We desperately want to believe that by accumulating enough data, we can permanently banish uncertainty.

But data is simply a record of what has already happened; it cannot account for the unprecedented. It cannot measure a sudden shift in human psychology, a freak accident, or the spontaneous spark of a revolutionary idea.

The surprises are all that matter because they force adaptation. They break the fragile mold of our expectations. They are the crucibles in which our real, unvarnished growth occurs.

When the predictable happens, we just keep sleepwalking down the path. It is only when the unexpected strikes that we are forced to wake up, look around, and decide who we actually need to become.

This shouldn’t be a cause for despair, nor is it a valid excuse to abandon planning altogether. Dwight D. Eisenhower captured this paradox perfectly when he noted:

“In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.”

The written plan itself—the rigid timeline, the expected outcomes—might shatter upon impact with reality. But the act of planning? That is essential. It forces us to take inventory of our resources, establishes a baseline direction, and builds mental agility. The danger doesn’t lie in the act of preparing, but in attaching our ultimate peace of mind to the exact realization of a fragile script.

Perhaps the most rational way to face the future is with a sense of prepared humility. We can plot our course, pack our provisions, and meticulously check the compass.

But we must also accept that a sudden, unforecasted storm might blow us onto an entirely different continent. And when we finally wash ashore on that strange new land, exhausted and disoriented, we might just find that it is exactly where we were meant to be all along. Seek serendipity.

Categories
Living Serendipity

The Architecture of the Unexpected

We spend an incredible amount of energy trying to build a ceiling over our lives, a structure made of spreadsheets, five-year plans, and trend forecasts. We convince ourselves that if we just gather enough data, the future will become a navigable map. But Morgan Housel, in Same as Ever, cuts through this illusion with a quiet, devastating observation:

“We are very good at predicting the future, except for the surprises—which tend to be all that matter.”

It is a humbling thought. We can predict the mundane with startling accuracy—the seasons, the commute, the steady inflation of a currency. But the events that actually shift the trajectory of a life, a business, or a civilization are precisely the ones that no model accounted for. We are experts at forecasting the rain, yet we are consistently blindsided by the flood.

This reveals a profound tension in the human experience. We crave certainty because certainty feels like safety. We want to believe that the “tail events”—those low-probability, high-impact occurrences—are outliers we can ignore. In reality, history isn’t a steady climb; it’s a series of long plateaus punctuated by sudden, violent leaps.

The problem isn’t that our models are broken; it’s that we are looking at the wrong thing. Instead of seeking total foresight, we must prioritize serendipity and resilience. If the future is defined by surprises, then the most valuable asset isn’t a better crystal ball—it’s a wider margin of safety.

We must learn to live with the paradox: we must plan for a future that we know, deep down, will not go according to plan. The surprises aren’t just interruptions to the story; they are the story.

Looking back at the last decade of your life, what was the single ‘surprise’ event that defined your path more than any plan you ever made?

Categories
Living Productivity

The Ghost in the Calendar

We have become architects of our own incarceration, building prisons out of thirty-minute blocks and color-coded labels. We operate under a modern delusion: that a gap in the schedule is a leak in the ship. If we aren’t “doing,” we must be failing.

We treat our minds like high-performance engines that must never idle, forgetting that an engine constantly redlining eventually catches fire. Morgan Housel captures this paradox perfectly in Same as Ever:

“The most efficient calendar in the world—one where every minute is packed with productivity—comes at the expense of curious wandering and uninterrupted thinking, which eventually become the biggest contributors to success.”

The tragedy of the “most efficient calendar” is that it optimizes for the visible while starving the invisible. Productivity, in its most common definition, is about throughput—how many emails were sent, how many tickets were closed, how many boxes were checked. But these are administrative victories, not intellectual ones.

When we eliminate “curious wandering,” we eliminate the serendipity required for breakthrough. A breakthrough is rarely the result of a scheduled task; it is the byproduct of a mind allowed to roam until it trips over a connection it wasn’t looking for. By packing every minute, we ensure we are always busy, but we also ensure we are never surprised.

Uninterrupted thinking requires a certain level of inefficiency. It looks like staring out a window, taking a walk without a podcast, or sitting with a problem long after the “allocated” time has expired. In the eyes of a traditional manager—or our own internal critic—this looks like waste. Yet, this “waste” is the soil in which high-leverage ideas grow.

If we lose the ability to wander, we lose our edge. We become mere processors of information rather than creators of value. Real success isn’t found in the frantic filling of space, but in the courage to leave space empty, trusting that the silence will eventually speak.

Categories
Books Living

Change is what we see

I recently read Morgan Housel‘s new book “Same as Ever” which I very much enjoyed. He’s a good writer and storyteller. He stays on message and doesn’t wander – making for an easy read.

This morning on my morning walk I was listening to the Bookworm podcast reviewing this book when it dawned on me that the notion of change is what we see is exactly how our vision systems work. It’s the movement of something in our sight that captures our attention, not the static elements in the scene. So it is in life Housel contends.

Here are few of the highlights I made while reading:

  • Our life is indeed the same as it ever was. . . . The same physiological and psychological processes that have been man’s for hundreds of thousands of years still endure. —Carl Jung
  • Change captures our attention because it’s surprising and exciting. But the behaviors that never change are history’s most powerful lessons, because they preview what to expect in the future. Your future. Everyone’s future.
  • Amazon founder Jeff Bezos once said that he’s often asked what’s going to change in the next ten years. “I almost never get the question: ‘What’s not going to change in the next ten years?’ ” he said. “And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two.”
  • An irony of studying history is that we often know exactly how a story ends, but we have no idea where it began.
  • Events, like money, compound. And the central feature of compounding is that it’s never intuitive how big something can grow from a small beginning.
  • We are very good at predicting the future, except for the surprises—which tend to be all that matter.
  • The biggest news, the biggest risks, the most consequential events are always what you don’t see coming.
  • Money buys happiness in the same way drugs bring pleasure: incredible if done right, dangerous if used to mask a weakness, and disastrous when no amount is enough.
  • We tend to take every precaution to safeguard our material possessions because we know what they cost. But at the same time we neglect things which are much more precious because they don’t come with price tags attached…
  • Probability and uncertainty are just so difficult for us to comprehend.
  • There have been roughly 100 billion humans to ever live. With an average age of roughly 30 years, individual humans have lived something like 1.2 quadrillion days (or 1.2 million billion). Crazy things that have a one-in-a-billion chance of happening have occurred millions of times.
  • Even within a good story, a powerful phrase or sentence can do most of the work. There is a saying that people don’t remember books; they remember sentences.
  • Stability is destabilizing. Or, put another way: Calm plants the seeds of crazy. Always has, always will.
  • Stress focuses your attention in ways good times can’t. It kills procrastination and indecision, taking what you need to get done and shoving it so close to your face that you have no choice but to pursue it, right now and to the best of your ability.
  • The most important things come from compounding. But compounding takes awhile, so it’s easy to ignore.
  • The real magic of evolution is that it’s been selecting traits for 3.8 billion years. The time, not the little changes, is what moves the needle. Take minuscule changes and compound them by 3.8 billion years and you get results that are indistinguishable from magic.
  • Evolution is ruthless and unforgiving—it doesn’t teach by showing you what works but by destroying what doesn’t.
  • You never know what struggles people are hiding.
  • Stephen King explains in his book On Writing: This is a short book because most books about writing are filled with bullshit. I figured the shorter the book, the less bullshit.
  • Complexity gives a comforting impression of control, while simplicity is hard to distinguish from cluelessness.
  • A decade ago I made a goal to read more history and fewer forecasts. It was one of the most enlightening changes of my life.

The book is an easy read – you’ll finish it in a couple of sittings!