Categories
AI

The Tempo of the Brake Pedal

Martin Casado said something this week that snapped a few loose thoughts into place. The frontier labs missed Jev, he argued, because they are building beings that speak. Software needed a model that chooses.

That reads like a product distinction. It is really a habit of mind.

For a few years we have taken a machine born in chat — text in, text out — and tried to cram it into ordinary programs. Parse the JSON. Retry when it rambles. Plead with it to stay inside the schema. Hope it does not invent a field. Casado’s word for this was right: janky.

Jev takes the other fork. Don’t generate the paragraph. Give the model a state and a menu. Let it pick, score, or answer yes or no, with a probability attached, in one pass, cheap enough and fast enough to live inside a loop. Train it for that job instead of training it to sound like someone worth talking to. The name winks at Jevons: make the unit of intelligence cheap enough and software will call it constantly. That is not a chatbot. That is a function.

I keep finding the same fork elsewhere.

Full self-driving is not AGI on wheels. AGI is the being. Driving is the chooser. The car does not need a meditation on the yellow light. It needs brake, hold, go, at a tempo no essay can match. Tesla and Waymo are not succeeding or failing as philosophers. They are succeeding or failing as systems that pick from a small set of actions in a messy world, millions of times a day.

Humanoid robots make the same confusion look even more like the story we want it to be. Two legs, two hands, tidy the kitchen. The demo is speech and generality. The work underneath is neither: a high-frequency controller choosing stance and contact, and a slower chooser deciding which mug, which drawer, abort or continue. Language is a compiler of intent. It is a poor motor cortex.

We blur the layers because the being is the story we want to tell. The chooser is the product that has to work.

There is a flattering counterargument: wait for the general model, and it will absorb the narrow jobs. Sometimes it will. But a lot of software’s value does not live there. It lives in the call that has to be right, cheap, and on time — route the ticket, score the lead, decide the grasp, stay in the lane. A being is optimized to continue. A chooser is optimized to decide. Different losses. Different machines.

None of this makes the labs foolish. If you are trying to build God, God speaks in natural language. That is a coherent ambition. It is just not the same ambition as making ordinary software reliable. We spent a few years pretending those were the same project. Jev is a reminder that they never were.

Labs build speakers. Software, cars, and robots need choosers. Speech is a wonderful interface and a miserable control loop.

I have been as taken as anyone by the being — the voice, the fluency, the sense that something is in there. Curiosity pulls that way. So does the stage. But the quieter question, the one Casado is actually pointing at, is whether most of the work was ever conversation at all. Maybe it was always a menu, a state, and a choice — and we were paying a novelist to raise his hand.

Somewhere right now a self-driving car is holding at a yellow light, saying nothing at all, deciding everything.

Categories
AI Business

The Wage of Knowing

In 1973 the Los Angeles Public Library installed a telephone line that worked while the building was dark. Dial H-O-O-T-O-W-L on a rotary phone, nine at night until one in the morning, and a librarian would answer. Somebody wanted to know the boiling point of mercury, or who wrote a poem they half remembered, or how many wives Henry VIII actually had, and a person on the other end of a cord found out. This went on for years. Nobody thought of it as data collection. It was just a service, a courtesy, a woman at a desk with a card catalog in her head.

I worked, in another life, in the payments industry, back when a merchant who wanted to charge your card had to call in and ask permission. There were rooms for this. Banks of phones, a bulletin of stolen numbers updated by hand, a floor limit past which a supervisor had to be found. The people answering the phones were, more often than you would guess, college students. Twenty years old, minimum wage, deciding in real time whether a stranger’s card was good. Nobody trained them for six months first. They learned the bulletin, they learned to listen for something wrong in a voice, and they said yes or no.

I have been driven, recently, by a car with nobody driving it. I noticed the wheel turning on its own and I braced for the wrongness of it. Thirty seconds later I was not bracing. I was looking out the window. The data says I was right to relax: across two hundred and twenty million miles, the cars involved in this experiment cause a small fraction of the serious crashes a human would have caused over the same roads. I did not need the data. I needed thirty seconds.

None of these people knew what they were doing. That is the thing about the librarian and the college student and, for that matter, about me learning to trust a wheel that moves by itself. The librarian was not building a search engine. The clerk was not training a fraud model. He was making rent. Their competence was not evidence, to them. It was just Tuesday. It became evidence later, to someone else, in a room they never saw — the accident logs, the chargeback data, the accumulated record of a million correct guesses that turned out to be exactly the material a system needed to learn the job and take it.

This is the part that is easy to get wrong. It is not that the human failed and the machine succeeded. It is that the human succeeding, over and over, in full view, was the demonstration that the job could be learned. You do not automate a task nobody can do. You automate the one being done well enough, often enough, for long enough that the pattern becomes visible. Doing the job right was never neutral. It was the case being built.

Which brings me to a woman I will call the lawyer, because there are thousands of her and none of them are exactly her. She has a laptop open at her kitchen table. She logs into a dashboard belonging to a company that pairs credentialed people with the AI labs that need them — a doctor here, a banker there, a corporate attorney with fifteen years of contract law behind her. She reads a model’s draft of a merger agreement and marks where it reasons like a first-year associate instead of a partner. She rewrites a clause. She explains, in the margin, why the model’s version would get laughed out of a negotiation. She is paid well for this. More, some weeks, than she billed certain clients.

She knows exactly what she is doing. That is the difference between her and the other three. The librarian did not know she was leaving a trail. The clerk did not know his good judgment would become someone else’s weights. I did not know, thirty seconds into that ride, that I was participating in anything at all. The lawyer knows. She is being paid, by the hour, at a rate that respects her expertise, to make her expertise legible enough that it no longer requires her. The company she works for has a name for this. They call it the reinforcement learning economy, which is a tidy way of saying: teach it everything, and then it will not need to call you back.

She does the work anyway. The rate is good. The work is interesting, in the way that teaching is interesting — you learn what you know by trying to say it clearly enough for someone else to use. Nobody is lying to her. The dashboard does not pretend to be anything other than what it is. She logs off at the end of the session the way anyone logs off after a long day of being excellent at something, tired in the specific way that comes from careful work, and she does not, from what I understand, spend the evening thinking about what she has just fed into the machine.

I keep coming back to the rotary dial. Somebody dialing H-O-O-T-O-W-L at midnight in 1973 could not have imagined the lawyer at her kitchen table. But the shape is the same, if you look at it long enough. A person answers a question well. The answering becomes a record. The record becomes a system. The system answers next time. Nobody in the room ever decided this was the plan. It just turned out, every time, to be the plan.

Categories
Cars Living San Francisco/California

Riding Solo: My Driverless Waymo Experience in San Francisco

I had the chance to experience the future of transportation yesterday by taking my first ride in a Waymo autonomous vehicle from Tadich Grill to the Caltrain station in San Francisco. Let me tell you, it was a pretty mind-blowing experience!

After ordering the ride through the Waymo app, it took about 7 minutes for the sleek, electric Jaguar to pull up across the street. With no designated pickup zone, the car had to park a little distance away. As I approached, the doors remained locked until I used the app to unlock them remotely. Once inside the luxurious cabin, buckling up and tapping the “Start Ride” button on the center console was all it took to embark on this journey into the future.

As we glided through the city streets, the car’s displays provided a real-time view of our route and surroundings, not unlike the experience in a Tesla. But what really struck me were the reactions from pedestrians and other drivers. At every stoplight, people would do a double-take, point, and wave enthusiastically at the backseat occupant (me!), clearly amazed to see a car navigating entirely on its own.

The whole experience felt seamless, almost eerily so. The music playing in the car seems purposely designed to be very soothing too. You can select your own music if you prefer but I was enjoying the peacefulness of Waymo’s default selections.

The autonomous system handled every turn, stop, and merge with a level of precision that even the most skilled human driver would struggle to match. And the best part? No awkward small talk or dealing with a distracted Uber driver! Oh, one other benefit – no tipping the driver!

Waymo’s autonomous ride service in San Francisco is truly a glimpse into the future of mobility. If this is just the beginning, I can’t wait to see what other technological marvels await us down the road.