Categories
AI Business

The Wage of Knowing

In 1973 the Los Angeles Public Library installed a telephone line that worked while the building was dark. Dial H-O-O-T-O-W-L on a rotary phone, nine at night until one in the morning, and a librarian would answer. Somebody wanted to know the boiling point of mercury, or who wrote a poem they half remembered, or how many wives Henry VIII actually had, and a person on the other end of a cord found out. This went on for years. Nobody thought of it as data collection. It was just a service, a courtesy, a woman at a desk with a card catalog in her head.

I worked, in another life, in the payments industry, back when a merchant who wanted to charge your card had to call in and ask permission. There were rooms for this. Banks of phones, a bulletin of stolen numbers updated by hand, a floor limit past which a supervisor had to be found. The people answering the phones were, more often than you would guess, college students. Twenty years old, minimum wage, deciding in real time whether a stranger’s card was good. Nobody trained them for six months first. They learned the bulletin, they learned to listen for something wrong in a voice, and they said yes or no.

I have been driven, recently, by a car with nobody driving it. I noticed the wheel turning on its own and I braced for the wrongness of it. Thirty seconds later I was not bracing. I was looking out the window. The data says I was right to relax: across two hundred and twenty million miles, the cars involved in this experiment cause a small fraction of the serious crashes a human would have caused over the same roads. I did not need the data. I needed thirty seconds.

None of these people knew what they were doing. That is the thing about the librarian and the college student and, for that matter, about me learning to trust a wheel that moves by itself. The librarian was not building a search engine. The clerk was not training a fraud model. He was making rent. Their competence was not evidence, to them. It was just Tuesday. It became evidence later, to someone else, in a room they never saw — the accident logs, the chargeback data, the accumulated record of a million correct guesses that turned out to be exactly the material a system needed to learn the job and take it.

This is the part that is easy to get wrong. It is not that the human failed and the machine succeeded. It is that the human succeeding, over and over, in full view, was the demonstration that the job could be learned. You do not automate a task nobody can do. You automate the one being done well enough, often enough, for long enough that the pattern becomes visible. Doing the job right was never neutral. It was the case being built.

Which brings me to a woman I will call the lawyer, because there are thousands of her and none of them are exactly her. She has a laptop open at her kitchen table. She logs into a dashboard belonging to a company that pairs credentialed people with the AI labs that need them — a doctor here, a banker there, a corporate attorney with fifteen years of contract law behind her. She reads a model’s draft of a merger agreement and marks where it reasons like a first-year associate instead of a partner. She rewrites a clause. She explains, in the margin, why the model’s version would get laughed out of a negotiation. She is paid well for this. More, some weeks, than she billed certain clients.

She knows exactly what she is doing. That is the difference between her and the other three. The librarian did not know she was leaving a trail. The clerk did not know his good judgment would become someone else’s weights. I did not know, thirty seconds into that ride, that I was participating in anything at all. The lawyer knows. She is being paid, by the hour, at a rate that respects her expertise, to make her expertise legible enough that it no longer requires her. The company she works for has a name for this. They call it the reinforcement learning economy, which is a tidy way of saying: teach it everything, and then it will not need to call you back.

She does the work anyway. The rate is good. The work is interesting, in the way that teaching is interesting — you learn what you know by trying to say it clearly enough for someone else to use. Nobody is lying to her. The dashboard does not pretend to be anything other than what it is. She logs off at the end of the session the way anyone logs off after a long day of being excellent at something, tired in the specific way that comes from careful work, and she does not, from what I understand, spend the evening thinking about what she has just fed into the machine.

I keep coming back to the rotary dial. Somebody dialing H-O-O-T-O-W-L at midnight in 1973 could not have imagined the lawyer at her kitchen table. But the shape is the same, if you look at it long enough. A person answers a question well. The answering becomes a record. The record becomes a system. The system answers next time. Nobody in the room ever decided this was the plan. It just turned out, every time, to be the plan.

Categories
Writing

The Grain Bin and the Ghost

Richard Rhodes published How to Write in 1995. In it, he offers practical advice about a writer’s reference shelf: keep a dictionary at home, own a one-volume encyclopedia. He mentions, almost in passing, that he just received the OED on CD-ROM as a birthday gift.

That sentence stops you cold in 2026.

Not because it’s quaint — though it is — but because of what it reveals about how a writing life was organized. Rhodes wasn’t describing luxury. He was describing infrastructure. The reference shelf was load-bearing. You kept facts at home the way you kept food in a pantry: because access wasn’t guaranteed, because the library closed, because the gap between not-knowing and knowing could be measured in trips and hours. A writer’s bookshelf was a personal hedge against scarcity.

Think about what it meant that someone’s birthday present was a reference tool. Not a novel. Not a bottle of wine. Twenty volumes of the most authoritative dictionary in the English language, compressed to a disc, given because a writer needed it and couldn’t otherwise have it on their desk. That’s what a writing life cost. That’s what it demanded of the people around you.

That scarcity is gone so completely it’s hard to reconstruct the phenomenology of it.

The bottleneck in Rhodes’s world was access. You either had the fact or you didn’t. Getting it required physical movement — to the shelf, to the library, to someone who knew. The reference book’s value was proximity: it collapsed the distance between the question and the answer. The OED on CD-ROM was remarkable precisely because it put those twenty volumes on your desk. No trip. No waiting. That was the gift.

The bottleneck now is entirely different. Access is solved, trivially, for anyone with a phone. The question isn’t where the facts are. The question is which facts to trust, how they were assembled, whether the source has an agenda, whether the model that synthesized them has introduced drift. We moved from a scarcity problem to a judgment problem, and most of our inherited intellectual habits were built for the former.

But something else happened too, something Rhodes couldn’t have framed because it didn’t exist: the infrastructure became generative. The reference shelf held facts. It didn’t think with you. It didn’t draft alongside you, or push back on your argument, or notice that the claim you just made contradicts something three paragraphs earlier. The CD-ROM OED was static; it waited to be consulted. The tools a writer reaches for now don’t wait. They participate.

This is the structural shift that the grain bin metaphor can’t contain. Rhodes was describing a writer’s relationship to stored knowledge — how you accumulate it, how you keep it close, how you move through it when you need it. That relationship was essentially curatorial. You built a collection. You maintained it. You drew from it.

What’s emerging now is something more like a collaboration with an infrastructure that has opinions. Not always right ones. Not always trustworthy ones. But opinions nonetheless — which means the writer’s job has changed in kind, not just in degree. You’re no longer managing a pantry. You’re managing a working relationship.

Where does it end up? Probably somewhere Rhodes would recognize at the level of the goal — clarity, the right word, the true sentence — and find almost unrecognizable at the level of method. The shelf is still there. But it talks back now. And figuring out what that means — whether to trust it, when to push against it, how to stay the one doing the writing — is the work no one has finished yet. Maybe no one can, while it’s still changing this fast.

Categories
AI Consulting

The Judgment Layer

An analyst’s note about the CEO of one of the largest consulting companies making comments at an investor conference includes a line that deserves more attention than it got: “token volume used on a project isn’t a proxy for AI maturity.”

Translation — clients are burning money on frontier models for problems that don’t need frontier models, and they’re not getting the outcomes they expected.

This firm’s CEO offered this as a business opportunity. I read it as a confession.

The old consulting model was simple: client has a technology problem, firm deploys humans to solve it. Billing followed effort. The new problem is different in kind — clients have an AI strategy problem. They know they’re supposed to be using AI. They’ve heard the word “frontier.” They’re spending accordingly. They just don’t know why, and the outcomes are showing it.

So the CEO is right that there’s an opportunity here. The value proposition shifts from implementation to judgment — not deploying AI, but knowing when not to deploy the expensive one. Matching capability to problem. Being trusted enough to tell a client that their $50M frontier model contract is solving a $500K problem.

Here’s the irony that the comment skates past: that advice is structurally difficult for a large consultancy to give.

The business model that built consulting firms was billing for doing. The more you deploy, the more you bill. Helping a client spend less, or choose the cheaper model, or run a narrower project, is genuinely good advice that the incentive structure actively works against. You don’t grow a $70 billion professional services firm by talking clients out of scope.

The judgment layer, if it becomes the real value, requires something closer to a doctor’s relationship with a patient than a contractor’s relationship with a client. Doctors get paid whether they prescribe or not. The value of the visit is the diagnosis — including the diagnosis that says you don’t need the expensive intervention. Consultants, historically, get paid to prescribe, and paid more when the prescription is larger.

There’s a reason we trust doctors with that asymmetry and not contractors. Licensing, malpractice, professional norms built over centuries — all of it exists to align the incentive. Consulting has none of that infrastructure. What it has instead is reputation, which is slower-acting and easier to game.

Whether the large firms can actually make the shift — rather than just reframe the same billable-hours model in the language of AI optimization — is the real question the market is wrestling with. The CEO’s comment is genuinely perceptive about where client value lies. It’s less clear that consulting firms are currently built to capture it honestly.

Categories
Curiosity

The Neutral Ground of Curiosity

We live in a time that demands certainty. We are constantly pressured to have a stance, to pick a team, to decide—right now—whether something is good or bad, right or wrong. It is exhausting. It feels like standing in a courtroom where you are forced to be both the lawyer and the judge.

But there is a quieter, more fertile ground we can stand on. Rick Rubin, writing in The Creative Act, describes it like this:

“The heart of open-mindedness is curiosity. Curiosity doesn’t take sides or insist on a single way of doing things. It explores all perspectives. Always open to new ways, always seeking to arrive at original insights.”

I love the idea that curiosity “doesn’t take sides.” It implies that curiosity is a neutral party. It isn’t there to win an argument; it is there to understand the argument.

When we approach the world with judgment, our vision narrows. We look for evidence that confirms what we already believe. But when we approach the world with curiosity, the lens widens. We stop asking, “Is this right?” and start asking, “What is this?”

Rubin reminds us that the goal isn’t to be correct; the goal is to be original. And you cannot arrive at an original insight if you are walking the same worn path of binary thinking. You have to be willing to wander off the trail, to listen to the opposing view not to defeat it, but to learn the shape of it.

I remind myself to try to drop the gavel. To stop judging the events of my day and simply witness them. To be the explorer, not the jury. Oh, and along the way, embrace serendipity!

I’m reminded of a couple of friends and colleagues. One seems to listen briefly but rapidly reach a black/white conclusion. Another seems to always want to explore further, asking questions to go deeper. One is much more enjoyable to be around. The other a lot less so! Which one can I be? Which one am I?