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AI Apple Google

The Library You Already Own

Sharon Park in the morning is not a dramatic place. There’s a duck pond, a stand of oaks that go gold too briefly in November, and a loop I’ve walked enough times that my legs know it better than my eyes do. It is, in other words, exactly the kind of place where a person starts talking to himself. Not out loud. In the productive, low-grade way — turning a sentence over, arguing with an idea from the day before, checking a thought against something you believe about yourself.

I think in five years I’ll be doing that walk with something else along. Not a search engine. Not another chatbot trained to know a little about everything and a lot about nothing in particular. Something closer to a second set of eyes on my own life — a reasoning engine, lean and mostly private, that has actually read the things I’ve written and doesn’t need me to explain who I am before it’s useful.

Here’s the distinction that matters, and it took me longer than it should have to see it clearly. The AI industry has spent years in an arms race over how much of the world a model can hold — more facts, more languages, more of the internet compressed into weights. That race will keep going, and somebody else can have it. What I want is smaller and stranger: a model that knows comparatively little about the world and quite a lot about me. My core values document. The portfolio spreadsheets. Fifteen years of blog posts. The half-finished notes for the I-280 project, sitting in a folder, waiting for someone — or something — to ask the right question about them.

I spent a career in payments infrastructure, which means I spent a career thinking about a very specific kind of trust: the kind where a stranger’s system has to make a judgment call, in milliseconds, about whether to say yes. Fraud models don’t work because they know everything about commerce. They work because they know an enormous amount about one account, one pattern, one person’s ordinary Tuesday — enough to notice when Tuesday stops being ordinary. That’s the architecture I keep picturing, aimed inward instead of outward. Not a system trying to know the world. A system trying to know me, well enough to notice when I’m drifting from what I said I cared about.

I can already feel the shape of the mornings this would change. Right now, when I sit down to look at RMD requirements against the tax picture, I’m doing the translation myself — pulling numbers into a story I can actually feel the weight of. A reasoning engine grounded in my real holdings wouldn’t just run the scenario. It would know that I don’t want the scenario dressed up as a spreadsheet; I want it dressed up as a conversation, unhurried, the kind you’d have over lunch with someone who already knows the whole situation. And on the mornings when I sit down to write, instead of staring at a blinking cursor and a blank page that has no idea I exist, I’d be handing a draft to something that has actually read my last two hundred posts and knows the difference between the sentence I’d write and the sentence I’d cut.

None of this is especially exotic technology. Apple and Google are already building toward it — Neural Engines fast enough to do real reasoning on-device, retrieval systems that can reach into your own files instead of the entire internet, fine-tuning that’s getting cheap enough to personalize rather than merely customize. The more interesting story here isn’t privacy, though privacy is real. It’s architectural: what happens when the expensive, impressive part of the system — the part that knows everything — becomes optional, and the cheap, personal part — the part that knows you — becomes the whole point.

What I don’t yet know is what this will cost me. A tool that reasons this well about my own life is also a tool I could lean on instead of doing the leaning myself, and there’s a version of this future where the walk around Sharon Park stops being mine and starts being a conversation with something that finishes my sentences a little too well. I’d want some way of knowing, plainly, what it’s drawing from and what it’s guessing at — less a nutrition label than a kind of honesty I could check against, the way you’d check a fraud model’s confidence score before you trusted it with a yes.

But most mornings, I think I’d take the trade. Not because I want to think less. Because for thirty years I’ve been collecting the raw material — the notebooks, the portfolios, the half-built essays — and it would be something, finally, to walk beside a mind that had actually done the reading.

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AI Apple Google

The Floor

I compared the frontier to a three-star chef making grilled cheese in “Context Rot” — the smartest models on earth spending most of their time on work beneath them, the way a chef trained at Le Bernardin might still melt cheese between two slices of bread on a Tuesday night and call it dinner. The comfort was the point: if the sharpest tool is saved for hard problems and something merely-very-good handles the rest, nobody’s losing anything. The floor was never the interesting part.

I’ve kept turning the joke over, and I think I had the wrong worry.

Watch what companies do with their AI spend, not what they say. Coinbase moved engineers off frontier models onto open weights and cut its AI spend nearly in half while usage kept climbing. Nvidia runs a closed model as orchestrator and routes the actual volume — the daily uncelebrated bulk of it — to open weights it controls. The frontier is becoming a dispatcher, deciding where the request goes and rarely doing the work itself. The instinct is to worry about whose open weights end up running that volume, and right now the most capable ones at scale are Chinese — GLM, Kimi — which makes it tempting to read this as a contest America is quietly losing: the floor of the AI economy built somewhere else, at a price export controls can’t touch. You cannot embargo a file already downloaded. You cannot price-match free.

But that framing has a hole. Google’s own Gemma family is open-weight and good enough to handle that daily volume without anyone reaching for GLM or Kimi. “Open weights are a Chinese story” only holds if you don’t count the open models the company running Android and half the internet’s search traffic has already shipped.

And once I saw that hole, a bigger one opened behind it. I’ve been trying Apple’s new Siri — arriving with iOS 27 this fall, genuinely surprisingly good in beta — and it made me realize open weights, of any nationality, were never going to cook most of the world’s dinners. Apple and Google are.

Consider what actually determines where the world’s routine inference runs. Not which model benchmarks best, not which weights are downloadable — what’s already installed. Apple ships to well over a billion active devices before routing a single query through Siri’s new architecture. Nobody has to be persuaded to try it, or hear about it on a podcast; it’s the thing that answers when you press the button you’ve pressed for a decade. Google owns the search bar and the Android default the same way. Between them, that’s most of the world’s phones — and phones are where most of the world’s questions get asked.

The open-weight framing assumes the floor is up for grabs, that whoever ships the best free model wins the daily grind by merit. But the floor was never a bazaar. It’s a set of defaults, owned by whoever already has the device in your hand, not whoever holds the most generous license. Apple didn’t need to win the model war to win this. Its heaviest reasoning tier is built with Google, running on Nvidia chips in Google’s cloud, under a deal reported at roughly a billion dollars a year — Apple doesn’t fully own the engine doing the thinking. It doesn’t need to. It owns the button.

That’s a quieter concentration than an export-controls fight, and a harder one to dislodge. An open model can be forked, distilled, undercut, or out-competed by the next release. A billion phones with an assistant built into the lock screen cannot be routed around. Whoever’s weights hum underneath barely matters, the way it barely matters to a diner which supplier delivered the flour. What matters is whose kitchen the meal came from, and whose name is on the door.

The grilled-cheese chef was never the risk. Two chefs are about to own nearly every kitchen on earth, and most of us will never notice — because a kitchen you’ve been eating out of for a decade doesn’t feel like something that was won. It just feels like home.

Owning the kitchen and getting paid for what’s cooked in it, though, turn out to be two different questions. That one’s for another post.

Categories
AI Anthropic Business Google

The Weight of the Bill

Jordi Visser has been making the case for months — in his weekly YouTube commentary and on his Substack — that we are living through an exponential transition that most people are measuring with the wrong instruments. I think he’s right. I found two data points this week that suggest why.

I was somewhere in the middle of an Invest Like the Best episode when Dylan Patel said it — almost as an aside, the kind of thing you drop to establish context before moving on to the point you actually came to make. His firm, SemiAnalysis, analyzes the semiconductor and AI industries for a living. And their usage of Claude, he noted, has been growing. The costs have been growing too.

Exponentially.

He moved on. I didn’t.

I think Patel’s API bill might be one of the more honest documents in the current AI moment — more honest than the analyst reports his firm produces, more honest than the earnings calls where every public company performs its AI fluency for shareholders.

Surveys bend. When you ask someone whether they’re using AI in their work, you’re asking them to self-report on a technology that has become a proxy for relevance, for not being left behind. The incentive to say yes is enormous. And even when the yes is genuine, it tells you nothing about depth — whether AI has become load-bearing in how someone actually works, or whether it’s an impressive thing they do occasionally.

Nobody pays exponentially growing API costs for show. Money is the honest witness.

What makes Patel’s situation quietly strange is the recursion in it. SemiAnalysis exists to help sophisticated investors and technologists understand this industry — and they cannot predict their own consumption curve. They are inside the exponential the same way everyone else is. They just happen to be watching their bill.

Then this morning, a different number arrived. Google announced it will invest up to $40 billion in Anthropic — $10 billion committed now, another $30 billion contingent on performance milestones. This follows a separate $5 billion from Amazon, part of a broader arrangement under which Anthropic is expected to spend up to $100 billion on compute over time.

The temptation with numbers like these is to treat them as spectacle. Forty billion dollars is so large it becomes almost aesthetic — a statement about ambition, about the kind of bets that define eras. You feel the weight of the zeros and move on.

But I keep coming back to Patel’s API bill.

Because Google’s $40 billion and SemiAnalysis’s compounding monthly costs are saying the same thing, expressed at scales so different they almost don’t seem related. One is a research firm noticing that their tool usage has quietly escaped prediction. The other is one of the most sophisticated capital allocators on earth making a bet that strains comprehension. But both are pointing at the same reality: that this technology, wherever it takes hold, does not plateau. It compounds.

We have been waiting, I think, for the moment when AI adoption becomes legibly real — some threshold event that separates the signal from the noise, the press release from the actual change. The surveys were supposed to mark that moment. The enterprise announcements. The benchmark numbers.

Patel’s aside suggests we’ve been waiting for the wrong thing. You don’t arrive at the exponential. You just eventually notice you’re already in it — in an aside on a podcast, before moving on to the point you actually came to make.

Categories
AI Google Google Gemini

Fun with Nano Banana 2

Google just released a new version of its image creation tool Nano Banana. It’s pretty amazing at creating all kinds of images.

On X a prompt was shared that I wanted to try out:

I need a flowchart for how to scramble eggs, make it as wacky and over the top and complicated as possible.

So I gave it a try:

Here are a couple of additional examples:

What a McKinsey partner does to prepare for a client’s board meeting presentation

The credit and debit card systems in the U.S.

David Allen’s Getting Things Done methodology

Pretty amazing! Conceiving and drawing one of these “flowcharts” would take me many hours!

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Google Google Bard Google Gemini Google NotebookLM

Dive Deeper with Google’s NotebookLM: A Researcher’s Dream Tool

Remember that mind-blowing Google I/O demo of an AI tool that unlocks hidden insights from your research documents? That’s NotebookLM, and it’s not just for tech giants anymore. (See this earlier blog post about what was originally Project Tailwind.)

As a longtime reader of author Steven Johnson (and avid follower of his “Adjacent Possible” Substack), I was thrilled to learn he’s now part of the team at Google Labs bringing this powerful technology to the masses.

Imagine uploading piles of research papers, articles, or even future forecasts (like I did with those year-end reports from Wall Street investment houses forecasting what’s expected in 2024!), and then having NotebookLM not only summarize them but also weave connections you might have missed. That’s exactly what I experienced.

NotebookLM’s “additional questions” feature is a game-changer, prompting me to explore angles I wouldn’t have considered on my own. It’s like having a tireless research assistant with an uncanny knack for spotting crucial details.

Of course, NotebookLM is still in its early stages. The current 20-document limit can feel restrictive, and its future as a paid product is unclear. But for researchers grappling with mountains of information, it’s a game-changer. It’s not just about saving time; it’s about sparking genuine intellectual leaps.

This tool isn’t just for academics, though. Imagine journalists using NotebookLM to connect seemingly disparate news articles, or students piecing together complex historical narratives. The possibilities are endless.

Sure, like any AI tool, it’s not perfect. Fact-checking is crucial, and occasional “hallucinations” can crop up. But NotebookLM’s source citations make verification easier, and its overall accuracy is impressive so far.

So, ditch the highlighter and embrace the future! NotebookLM isn’t just a fancy research tool; it’s a bridge to deeper understanding, more insightful analysis, and ultimately, groundbreaking discoveries. Unleash your research potential – your next breakthrough might just be a question away.

For more about this new tool, see this interview with Steven Johnson by Jason Calacanis on his This Week in Startups podcast.

Note: this post reflects some editing assistance I got from Google Bard.

Categories
AI AI: Large Language Models ChatGPT Google Google Bard

Looking forward to Project Tailwind…

This week at Google IO, one of the projects covered was a new experimental one called Project Tailwind – see how Steven Johnson covered it on his Substack after the event. He’s been working part-time with Google on this project which he describes Tailwind this way:

Tailwind allows you to define a set of documents as trusted sources which the AI then uses as a kind of ground truth, shaping all of the model’s interactions with you. In the use case shown on the I/O stage, the sources are class notes, but it could be other types of sources as well, such as your research materials for a book or blog post. The idea here is to craft a role for the LLM that is not an all-knowing oracle or your new virtual buddy, but something closer to an efficient research assistant, helping you explore the information that matters most to you. 

Google’s one line description is: “Tailwind is your AI-first notebook, grounded in the information you choose and trust.”

While working with the existing chatbots (ChatGPT, Google Bard, Microsoft Bing, etc.) is fun and useful, I’d be much happier having a research assistant which would primarily function on content I’ve created with an option to go beyond my content to the wider world. Johnson says he has “found that Tailwind works extremely well as an extension of my memory.”

Google’s initial implementation of Tailwind is based upon files in your Google Drive. For privacy reasons particularly, I’d especially welcome such a feature being trained and used locally on my own computer rather than having to upload my content to Google Drive and a cloud trainer.

I’ve requested access to Project Tailwind and look forward to experimenting with it when it’s made available. Meanwhile, here’s a short video that discusses Tailwind:

Categories
Google Photography

Snapseed on iOS

I don’t know if you use Snapseed or not but it’s become very much a part of my iPad/iPhone photography workflow.


I initially started using it because it has a Frames tool that lets me simply add a border to an image before uploading to Instagram/Facebook. But I’ve become increasingly addicted to a few of the other editing tools as well (tonal contrast, glamour glow, define (structure/sharpen), and faces. It also has a very nice healing brush as well as a dodge/burn tool that I use in monochromes.

This morning Google updated Snapseed to add a new Curves tool – which does what you think it should do – including allowing adjusting curves by red/green/blue channel. Very nice update/upgrade – this tool had become extremely useful for a mobile only workflow and it’s amazing that it’s all free from Google! If you haven’t played with it in a while, give it a try.

Categories
Google Web/Tech

Finding Me on Google+

Here’s my Google+ profile.

See also my initial thoughts about Google+.

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Google Twitter Web/Tech

Thinking about Google+

A friend invited me about 10 days ago into Google+, Google’s new “social” service. As many others have commented, it’s very well done for a “field trial” as Google calls it. The UI is very nice – with a couple of exceptions like endless comment streams – and Google+’s handling of photographs is beautifully done. You can get to my Google+ posts by clicking on the G+ icon over at the top of the right sidebar on this page.

Of course, Google+ is still new – and it’s attractive partially just for that reason. It’s sort of like the new restaurant in town. Still, I’m finding that Facebook is getting less of my attention as a result of Google+. How about you?

As for Twitter, I typically keep Twitter running – as a separate app – off on the right side of my display and always in view along with my browser. It’s a parallel feed – and I appreciate it’s “information density” with short posts, no integration of comments, etc.

Facebook, on the other hand, I run in a separate browser tab – a tab that I have to decide to click and go to – just like my email (ugh!). In the “attention economy”, seems to me that’s important – at least in the desktop environment.

On a mobile device, it’s clearly a different story. Each app is “all consuming”! We’ll see how the Google+ iPhone app affects our mobile usage – once that app is released.

Going forward, it’ll be very interesting to see where Google+ goes. Might it replace my separate blog here? Or…?