Tag: Small Business

Categories
AI California San Francisco/California

Distant Billboards

Greg Isenberg came back from San Francisco with seventeen observations. The billboards advertising either B2B inference infrastructure or vertical agent companies, the seed rounds, the forward-deployed engineers, the founders showing each other their Obsidian vaults like athletes comparing gym routines.

He noted an important thing in observation fifteen, almost as an aside.

Walking around the Mission I noticed something: the street-level businesses, the taquerias, the barbershops, the laundromats — none of them use any AI at all.

Everett Rogers formalized the technology diffusion model in 1962. He was studying hybrid seed corn in Iowa. He noticed that the farmers who adopted early weren’t just better informed — they had different social networks, different relationships to risk, different orientations toward outside knowledge. The late adopters weren’t slower. They were operating from a different set of facts about what was safe to try.

Those AI billboards in SoMa are not visible in the Mission. That’s not metaphor. That’s just geography.

What strikes me about the taqueria is not that it’s behind. It’s that the conversation happening a mile away — about MCP endpoints and agent fleets — is not legible to it. The vocabulary doesn’t exist there yet. Nobody has sat across from the woman making carnitas for twenty years and said: here is what this could do for your ordering, your scheduling, your response to a customer who asks on Yelp at 11pm whether you’re open on Monday. One day her daughter or son might.

The builder class optimizes for the builder class. You build what you understand, for people whose problems you can see. The founders in SoMa understand each other’s problems with extraordinary precision.

The woman making carnitas has different problems — thinner margins, less access to capital, relationships built over decades that don’t easily transfer to a new system. Nobody is at the Series A meeting making the case that her problems are the interesting ones.

The historian of technology David Nye wrote about the “technological sublime” — the awe Americans felt in the nineteenth century standing before a great bridge or a locomotive or the first electrified city. The feeling was real. But the sublime is a view from a particular angle. The workers who built the bridge experienced something quite different. The families displaced by the railroad’s right-of-way experienced something different still.

The question isn’t whether the technology will eventually reach her. It will. The diffusion curve is patient. It likely will surprise.

The question is whether anyone is doing the translation work. The act of standing in a specific kind of life and asking: what would this actually change here? In the actual kitchen, on the actual Tuesday.

Isenberg noted that the coworking spaces in SF are half empty but the coffee shops are packed. People want to be around people.

The taqueria is also a place where people want to be around people. It has been that for a long time.

She’ll adapt. She’s been adapting for twenty years.

But that’s a very different story than the one being told in San Francisco on those billboards.

Categories
Business

Everything You Need Is Out Front

Lee Child is not primarily known as a writer of consumer psychology, but Jack Reacher notices things — it’s rather the point of him — and in Nothing to Lose, Child gives his Jack a quiet moment of genuine curiosity:

“For many years Reacher had wondered why hardware stores favored sidewalk displays. There was a lot of work involved. Repetitive physical labor, twice a day. But maybe consumer psychology dictated that large utilitarian items sold better when associated with the rugged outdoors. Or maybe it was just a question of space.”

Reacher being Reacher, he files the observation and moves on.

But I couldn’t. Because he’s right — hardware stores do this, reliably and almost universally, and I’m not sure I’d ever consciously noticed it before reading that passage. Now I can’t stop noticing it.

There is something almost theatrical about the hardware store sidewalk display.

Wheelbarrows nested inside one another like Russian dolls. Stacks of plastic tubs in graduating sizes. Garden hoses coiled on hooks. Snow shovels in August, leaf blowers in April — the stock doesn’t always match the season, which suggests the display is less about merchandising logic than about something else entirely. It is a kind of flag, planted on the sidewalk: we are here, we are open, we have what you need.

Hardware stores occupy a peculiar and irreplaceable niche in the retail ecosystem. They are not quite like other shops.

A bookstore invites browsing; a grocery store moves you through a deliberate circuit; a clothing store sells you an idea of yourself. But a hardware store operates on a different premise entirely — the premise of the problem already in progress.

Nobody browses a hardware store the way they browse a bookstore. You come in because something is broken, leaking, stuck, squeaking, loose, or missing. You come in with a specific hole in your world that needs filling, and the hardware store’s job is to have the exact, obscure, oddly satisfying thing that fills it.

The sidewalk display, seen in this light, is a signal to that particular state of mind. It says: your problem is solvable. It projects competence and abundance before you even walk through the door. Those wheelbarrows and tubs and coiled hoses aren’t really for sale so much as they are reassurance — evidence that whoever runs this place has thought about what you might need and has made sure it’s available. The display is a promise made in hardware.

There is also something about the ruggedness of it — Reacher’s instinct about the outdoors isn’t wrong.

A bag of mulch sitting on a pallet in the open air feels different from the same bag of mulch on a climate-controlled shelf inside.

The independent hardware store does this better than the big box retailers, because the sidewalk display at a local hardware store carries the additional weight of relationship. The owner made a decision about what to put out front today, which means someone thought about it, which means someone is paying attention. The Home Depots of the world have sidewalk displays too, but they feel more like sheer marketing than curation.

Reacher suggests two reasons and moves on: consumer psychology, or space. Probably both. I suspect there’s also a third thing — the sidewalk display as an act of daily optimism.

Someone got up this morning, brought the wheelbarrows out, and arranged them on the sidewalk. They did it yesterday. They’ll do it tomorrow. They are betting that you will come around the corner with a problem and feel a small flood of relief when you see them there, ready.

Smart. And sort of comforting.

Categories
Politics Taxes UK

The Barred Door

In the drafty corners of the British public house, there is a currency more valuable than the pound: the right to belong. The pub is not merely a place of business; it is a “third space,” a secular sanctuary where the barriers of class and status are traditionally checked at the door in exchange for a pint and a bit of conversation. But recently, that sanctuary has become a site of quiet, firm rebellion.

Across the UK, pub owners have begun a movement that feels both archaic and strikingly modern: they are refusing to serve lawmakers from the governing Labour Party. The spark was a planned hike in property taxes—business rates—that many publicans believe will be the death knell for an industry already reeling from energy costs and changing social habits. The response? A “ban” on the very people who penned the policy.

There is a profound irony in a politician being barred from a pub. These are individuals who often spend their campaigns leaning against mahogany bars, sleeves rolled up, trying to prove they are “one of the people.” To be told your money is no good there—that your presence is no longer welcome in the heart of the community—is a unique form of social excommunication.

“The pub is the only place where the rich man and the poor man are equal; they both have to wait for their turn at the bar.”

When the state’s ledgers begin to threaten the existence of these communal living rooms, the relationship shifts from civic to adversarial. We often think of protest as something that happens in the streets—loud, chaotic, and transient. But there is a different kind of power in the quiet closing of a door. By refusing service, these publicans are reclaiming their space. They are reminding the architects of policy that “the public” is not an abstract data point on a spreadsheet, but a collection of people who own the stools, the taps, and the atmosphere.

This isn’t just about a tax hike; it’s about the erosion of the places that make us feel human. When the cost of keeping the lights on becomes a weapon of the state, the act of pouring a drink becomes a political statement. The message to the lawmakers is simple: if you want to dismantle the community through policy, you cannot expect to enjoy the community’s comforts.

We live in an age where we are increasingly disconnected, huddled in digital silos. The pub remains one of the few places where the “disparate” becomes “cohesive.” If we lose these spaces to the cold logic of fiscal necessity, we lose more than a business; we lose the stage where our shared life is performed. The publicans aren’t just fighting for their profit margins; they are fighting for the right to remain a host in a world that feels increasingly inhospitable.