Tag: Michael Lewis

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AI History Work

Flash-Frozen Cognition: Birdseye, AI, and the Future of Work

I was listening recently to a conversation between Liz Thomas, Tom Lee, and Michael Lewis — the kind of wide-ranging dialogue where a single offhand story can suddenly anchor everything that’s been swirling loosely in your mind.

Tom’s story was about the 1930s, the weight of the Great Depression, and a man named Clarence Birdseye.

Birdseye had watched the Inuit fish in the brutal cold of Labrador and noticed something the rest of the world had missed: fish frozen instantly at sub-zero temperatures tasted perfectly fresh when thawed. The ice crystals formed too quickly to rupture the cellular walls of the flesh. He took that observation home, patented the process, and introduced the world to flash freezing.

On the surface, he had simply figured out a better way to keep peas green and fish edible. What he had actually done was detonate a quiet economic bomb.

Before Birdseye, entire ecosystems of seasonal labor existed to preserve, salt, can, and rush perishable goods to market before they rotted. When flash freezing arrived, those jobs didn’t evolve — they vanished. The ice harvesters, the seasonal canners, the local preservationists all felt the sudden, biting frost of obsolescence. The cold came fast, and it was indifferent.

Yet zoom out on the timeline, and a different picture emerges entirely. Flash freezing didn’t just kill jobs — it invented new ones that nobody could have anticipated. It necessitated refrigerated trucking. It transformed the grocery store, conjuring the frozen food aisle from nothing. It reshaped the home appliance industry, making the household freezer a fixture of modern life. Most profoundly, it decoupled humanity from the harsh dictates of the harvest season, democratizing access to nutrition across geographies and income levels that had never known that kind of abundance.

The destruction was visible and immediate. The creation was invisible and slow — and vastly larger.

Listening to Tom tell this story, I couldn’t help but see our own reflection in it.

Right now, we are all hyper-focused on the ice harvesters of the cognitive economy. We look at AI — large language models, generative tools, automated reasoning — and we see the rupture. We mourn the entry-level analyst, the copywriter, the junior coder. The anxiety is real. The displacement is real. The cold is real.

But what we are struggling to visualize is the refrigerated trucking of the mind.

“AI is flash-freezing cognition. It is taking tasks that used to rot if not attended to immediately by expensive, time-consuming human effort, and preserving them in a scalable, frictionless state.”

When intelligence and execution can be flash-frozen and shipped anywhere instantly — to a first-generation entrepreneur in rural India, to a solo founder with no budget for consultants, to a teacher in a school that can’t afford specialists — what new aisles get built in the supermarket of human endeavor?

The honest answer is that we don’t know. The Inuit fishermen of Labrador couldn’t have imagined the frozen pizza aisle. The ice harvesters of the 1930s couldn’t have pictured the cold chain logistics industry that employs millions today. We are standing in their moment, watching the ice form, mourning the harvest — and almost certainly underestimating what comes next.

The true impact of AI won’t be measured in the jobs it automates. It will be measured in the industries, creative liberties, and human possibilities that emerge because we no longer have to spend all our energy just keeping the ideas from spoiling.

Questions to Consider

  1. The Invisible Creation: Flash freezing’s job creation vastly outpaced its job destruction — but only over decades. How long are we willing to hold that faith with AI, and what do we owe the people displaced in the interim?
  2. The Democratization Dividend: Birdseye’s invention ultimately made fresh nutrition available to people who never had it. Who are the equivalent beneficiaries of flash-frozen cognition — and are we building the infrastructure to actually reach them?
  3. The Harvest Season Question: We’ve always structured education, careers, and institutions around the assumption that expertise is scarce and slow to develop. What breaks — and what gets liberated — when that assumption stops being true?
  4. The Indifference Problem: The cold that killed the ice harvesters’ livelihoods was indifferent to their suffering. Is there anything about AI disruption that is meaningfully different from previous waves of technological displacement — or are we simply the latest generation to stand in that frost?

Categories
Authors Business Living

The Terror of the Empty Chair

It is comforting to believe that when the world breaks—when housing markets collapse, when “unicorn” startups vaporize, or when seasoned scouts overlook generational talent—it is because of a miscalculation. We want to believe the math was wrong, the data was bad, or the algorithm was flawed. We want to believe it was a glitch in the intellect.

I heard a commentator recently mention that Michael Lewis, the chronicler of our most expensive delusions in his best selling books, has suggested something far more unsettling. In looking at the connective tissue between The Big Short, Moneyball, and Going Infinite, he identifies a different culprit. He notes that the “glue” holding these irrational systems together isn’t incompetence. It is FOMO: The Fear Of Missing Out.

“They are more afraid of being left behind than they are of being wrong.”

This observation completely reframes the narrative of catastrophic failure. It explains why high-IQ individuals—people paid millions to be rational—consistently make decisions that look insane in retrospect. The banker, the VC, and the scout aren’t necessarily blinded by greed, though greed is certainly a passenger in the car. They are blinded by the terror of the empty chair.

Lewis points out that for the social animal, the pain of being left behind is acute and immediate, whereas the pain of being wrong is often abstract and distant. If you sit out a bubble and the bubble keeps inflating, you look like a fool today. You are isolated. You are the cynic at the party who refuses to dance. If you join the bubble and it bursts, well, you have company. As the old financial adage goes, “It is better to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.”

There is a profound, empathetic tragedy in this. It suggests that our systems don’t fail because we aren’t smart enough; they fail because we are too human. We are wired for the herd. The biological imperative to stay with the group—originally a survival mechanism against predators—has been warped into a financial suicide pact.

When we look at the irrational exuberance of a market, we aren’t seeing a mathematical error. We are seeing a materialized anxiety. We are seeing a collective hallucination held together not by logic, but by the sticky, desperate glue of not wanting to be the only one who didn’t buy the ticket.

The antidote, then, isn’t just better data or faster computers. It is the emotional discipline to be lonely. It is the willingness to stand apart from the warmth of the herd and accept the short-term social cost of being “out” for the long-term reward of being right.

Categories
Creativity Writing

Beyond the Backdrop: Crafting Fiction

Michael Lewis recently interviewed author Amor Towles and the New Orleans Book Festival. They had a great conversation and I highly recommend it (YouTube video)!

Near the end of the conversation with Lewis, Towles shares an explanation of the role history plays in his writing. Turns out he’s shared this explanation many other times during other book talks.

Here’s a rough recap of his explanation:

Imagine that you’re in a theater and you’re about to see is stage play. Let’s say it’s a play of Chekhov’s “The Cherry Orchard.” What you’re looking at is a living room of a wealthy Russian estate in the countryside with fine furniture. At the back of the room are two French doors, and if you look through them into the distance, you can see the cherry orchard itself. It’s spring, and the trees are in bloom, and you can see the blossoms.

What you’re looking at, of course, when you look across the stage through the French doors, is actually a painted canvas behind the doors. That’s the way a set crew will make a backdrop – they’re going to paint a picture of this orchard and drop it behind the doors. They will not paint it in a hyperrealist style but in an impressionist style like Renoir or Monet, because that’s what’s going to look right to the natural eye at that distance. It should look a little blurry to give the feeling that it’s afternoon. Maybe the blossoms look like they are even moving in the breeze.

In front of that, on either side of the French doors, are bookcases made out of plywood and painted to look like mahogany. On one side is a staircase that goes up to nothing, and on the other is a door that goes nowhere. All a part of the stage set.

But in front of all that is an actual table surrounded by actual chairs, and on the table is an actual china tea service.

It is very important that these things be actual because let’s say that there’s a sister sitting at the table having tea alone, and the brother slams this door as he comes in, stomping across this stage. He’s clearly in high emotion, and what we want to hear is the physicality of the wooden legs scraping across the wooden surface of the stage when he pulls back that chair to sit down and pulls himself up. When he slaps the surface of the table to make a point, we want to hear the physicality of that contact. And when the sister delicately, patiently puts down her teacup, we want to hear that gentle clink of the china on china. It’s very important that these things be real because that’s what allows us in the audience to focus on this moment in a very precise way.

For Towles, history is the painted backdrop, and he’s not interested in describing that in a hyperrealist style. He gives it an impressionist style because the role of history in his work is to provide a sense of time, of place, of mood – but that’s it.

Now in front of that, sits a lot of plywood that’s been painted to look like mahogany. This stuff he hopes makes you pause and ask “Did that actually happen or did he make that up?”

But in front of all that is the actual table and chairs. Just like in the play, it’s very important that that be very real to you. They should be so real to you that when you’re reading a scene around that table, you feel like you’re sitting at the table, and that you can read the changes in expression on the faces of the brother and sister. You can hear the nuances in their voices as they exchange their ideas and sentiments. It’s very important that this feel real to you because that’s actually where all of the action is.

Towles’ theatrical metaphor perfectly captures the essence of crafting historical fiction. History serves as the evocative backdrop, transporting readers to a specific era without getting bogged down in minutiae. This allows space for the reader’s imagination to flourish, fostering a deeper connection with the story. Towles’ intention is not to deliver a history lesson, but to create a believable atmosphere where characters and their narratives can truly shine.

At the heart of action is that single table with the china tea setting – the piece of the set that is startlingly, undeniably real. When the brother slams through the door in raging emotion, we don’t just want to see the movement – we must hear the grating screech of wooden chair legs against wooden floor. As the distressed sister delicately replaces her teacup in its saucer, that gentle clink of china on china must sing out and resonate.

Towles’s theatrical metaphor is a profound reminder that an author’s role is to create an immersive staging ground where characters can indisputably come to life for the audience. But the author’s craft is only fully realized when the players succeed in elevating the audience’s emotional experience from that of witness to full-fledged participant, intimately sharing the lives captured in that snapshot of illuminated reality.

Have you ever been swept away by a historical fiction novel that transported you to another time and place? If so, then you’ve likely experienced the magic that Amor Towles weaves with his words. Dive into one of Towles’ captivating novels and witness firsthand how he masterfully brings the past to life on the stage of his imagination. Perhaps, inspired by Towles’ approach, you’ll even pick up a pen and explore crafting your own fiction masterpiece.

Regardless, the next time you lose yourself in a captivating period drama, remember the artistry behind the scenes — the meticulous construction of a believable world where timeless human emotions take center stage.

Suggestion: start reading Amor Towles with his first novel: Rules of Civility