Tag: Cognitive Labor

Categories
AI Work

The Dealers of Intelligence

There’s a scene early in John Kenneth Galbraith’s The Affluent Society where he describes Americans of an earlier era regarding industrial output with something close to reverence — the sheer productive capacity of the nation seemed almost miraculous, a force that could reshape civilization. Within a generation, of course, that same output had become background noise. Factories hummed, goods appeared, and nobody paused to marvel.

The miraculous had become mundane, and the mundane had become infrastructure.

I found myself thinking about that arc recently while listening to Sam Lessin on the More or Less podcast.

Lessin made an observation that I haven’t been able to shake: we probably aren’t heading toward a single, triumphant AGI monopoly — some god-machine that one fortunate company builds first and then rents to the rest of us in perpetuity.

Instead, Lessin suggested, we are barreling toward something far more ordinary, and in its ordinariness, far more interesting.

“There will be lots of ‘dealers of intelligence’. No one company will corner the market, no one big winner of AGI.”

Dealers of intelligence. I keep turning that phrase over. Where do we end up? No rapture, no singularity, no chosen company ascending to the throne of cognition. Just suppliers, distribution channels, price competition — the unglamorous mechanics of any maturing market.

And historically, that’s exactly how this tends to go.

Salt was once precious enough to pay soldiers with. Spices rewrote the map of the world. Steel, oil, and computing power each arrived wrapped in mystique and guarded behind scarcity before the inevitable happened: extraction improved, distribution scaled, and the miracle became a utility. Nobody thinks about the engineering marvel of the electrical grid when they flip a light switch. They just expect the light to come on.

If Lessin is right — and the competitive landscape of the last two years does little to argue against him — intelligence will follow the same curve. Not a single oracle, but a market. Cognitive utilities. Price-per-token negotiations. The same forces that commoditized bandwidth will commoditize reasoning, and we’ll argue about our AI subscription tiers the way we currently argue about our data plans.

Which forces the interesting question: when genius is cheap, what exactly becomes valuable?

The professional moats of the last century were largely built on the ability to process specialized information and output reliable answers.

The doctor, the lawyer, the financial analyst, the programmer — each occupied a protected position because access to their domain of reasoning was genuinely scarce.

If I can buy a substantial fraction of that reasoning from a commodity supplier for fractions of a cent, the premium on raw cognitive horsepower doesn’t just shrink. It collapses.

What’s left, I think, is the un-commoditizable. Empathy. Physical presence. Judgment under conditions of genuine uncertainty and consequence. And above all — taste.

Taste is the thing that has always resisted systematization, because taste isn’t rational in any clean sense. It’s the residue of lived experience, of specific childhoods and particular failures and the accumulated weight of caring about things over time.

An algorithm can produce a structurally flawless piece of music; it takes a human to decide whether it matters, and why, and to whom.

That act of curation — of choosing what deserves to exist and what doesn’t — is going to become more consequential, not less, as the supply of technically competent output explodes.

There’s something almost liberating about this, if you let yourself sit with it.

A world of commoditized intelligence is, paradoxically, a profoundly human one. It removes the burden of raw computation from the center of what we do and pushes us toward the edges — toward the questions only we can ask, the connections only we can feel, the decisions only we can be held accountable for.

The dealers of intelligence will handle the materials. We’ll still have to decide what to build. Architects.

Questions to Consider

  1. If intelligence becomes a commodity like electricity or bandwidth, which industries or professions will be slowest to feel that pressure — and why?
  2. Lessin frames this as a market with many suppliers rather than a winner-take-all race. Does the competitive landscape today support that view, or does it still look like a sprint toward consolidation?
  3. What does “taste” actually mean when the person exercising it is doing so with AI-augmented perception and judgment? Is it still the same thing?
  4. Who gets to haggle with the dealers? If cognitive utilities are cheap in aggregate but not universally accessible, does commoditization risk deepening inequality rather than democratizing thought?
  5. If the value of answering questions falls and the value of asking them rises, what does education need to look like — and how far is it from what it looks like now?
Categories
AI

The Thousandfold Door

There is a pattern hiding in the history of human progress that we almost always miss in the moment — and almost always recognize, with some embarrassment, in hindsight.

Richard Koch and Greg Lockwood called it price-simplifying. The insight, drawn from decades of studying transformative businesses, is deceptively simple: when you cut the price of something dramatically, demand doesn’t respond proportionally. It responds exponentially. Halve the price, and you don’t double the market. You might multiply it by ten, or a hundred, or a thousand. Reduce the price to a tenth of what it was, and you may unlock a market a hundred thousand times larger than the one that existed before.

The math sounds implausible until you start listing the examples. Henry Ford didn’t just make cars cheaper — he conjured an entirely new civilization of mobility. Ikea didn’t discount furniture — it democratized the designed home. Southwest Airlines didn’t offer cheaper seats — it invented the era of the spontaneous trip, transforming flying from an executive luxury into something a college student books on a whim.

In every case, the price drop didn’t just serve existing demand more cheaply. It revealed latent demand that nobody knew existed — desire that had been sitting dormant, waiting for the door to open.

I keep returning to this framework when I think about what is happening with intelligence right now.

For most of human history, access to high-quality thinking — legal analysis, financial modeling, medical reasoning, strategic advice, elegant writing — has been extraordinarily expensive. Not just in money, but in time. You needed years of specialized education, or the budget to hire someone who had it. The price of cognition was high enough that vast swaths of human need simply went unmet. Problems went unsolved not because solutions didn’t exist, but because the expertise required to find them was priced out of reach.

AI is a price-simplifying event for intelligence itself.

“If the price is halved, demand does not double. It increases fivefold, tenfold, a hundredfold, a thousandfold or more.”

We are currently debating AI as though the primary story is substitution — one form of labor replacing another. But Koch and Lockwood’s framework suggests the more consequential story is what happens on the other side of the price collapse. When the cost of a legal opinion drops from $500 an hour to nearly zero, the question isn’t just “what happens to lawyers?” It’s “how many people who never could afford a lawyer now get access to one?” When the cost of a business plan drops from a consultant’s retainer to an afternoon conversation, the question isn’t just “what happens to consultants?” It’s “how many ideas that never got funded now have a fighting chance?”

The thousandfold door is opening. We can see it in the aggregate usage numbers, in the explosion of one-person companies, in the PhD-level tutoring now available to a student in a country that couldn’t previously afford it. What we cannot yet see is the full shape of what walks through.

That’s the thing about exponential demand. It doesn’t announce itself. It just accumulates quietly, and then one day someone looks at the numbers and realizes the world has changed.

Questions to Consider

  1. The Latent Demand Question: What human needs — currently unmet because expert help is too expensive — do you think AI will unlock first? Where is the largest reservoir of suppressed demand?
  2. The Ford Parallel: Henry Ford’s price simplification didn’t just create a new industry — it reshaped cities, suburbs, culture, and geopolitics in ways he never anticipated. What are the second and third-order consequences of dramatically cheaper intelligence that we’re not yet taking seriously?
  3. The Distribution Problem: Price-simplifying events historically don’t distribute their benefits evenly — early advantages tend to compound. Who is best positioned to walk through the thousandfold door first, and does that concern you?
  4. The Demand We Can’t Imagine: Koch and Lockwood’s most unsettling point is that the new demand often didn’t previously exist in any visible form — it was created by the price drop itself. What entirely new human behaviors, industries, or creative forms might AI’s price simplification call into existence that we currently have no framework to anticipate?
Categories
AI History Work

Flash-Frozen Cognition: Birdseye, AI, and the Future of Work

I was listening recently to a conversation between Liz Thomas, Tom Lee, and Michael Lewis — the kind of wide-ranging dialogue where a single offhand story can suddenly anchor everything that’s been swirling loosely in your mind.

Tom’s story was about the 1930s, the weight of the Great Depression, and a man named Clarence Birdseye.

Birdseye had watched the Inuit fish in the brutal cold of Labrador and noticed something the rest of the world had missed: fish frozen instantly at sub-zero temperatures tasted perfectly fresh when thawed. The ice crystals formed too quickly to rupture the cellular walls of the flesh. He took that observation home, patented the process, and introduced the world to flash freezing.

On the surface, he had simply figured out a better way to keep peas green and fish edible. What he had actually done was detonate a quiet economic bomb.

Before Birdseye, entire ecosystems of seasonal labor existed to preserve, salt, can, and rush perishable goods to market before they rotted. When flash freezing arrived, those jobs didn’t evolve — they vanished. The ice harvesters, the seasonal canners, the local preservationists all felt the sudden, biting frost of obsolescence. The cold came fast, and it was indifferent.

Yet zoom out on the timeline, and a different picture emerges entirely. Flash freezing didn’t just kill jobs — it invented new ones that nobody could have anticipated. It necessitated refrigerated trucking. It transformed the grocery store, conjuring the frozen food aisle from nothing. It reshaped the home appliance industry, making the household freezer a fixture of modern life. Most profoundly, it decoupled humanity from the harsh dictates of the harvest season, democratizing access to nutrition across geographies and income levels that had never known that kind of abundance.

The destruction was visible and immediate. The creation was invisible and slow — and vastly larger.

Listening to Tom tell this story, I couldn’t help but see our own reflection in it.

Right now, we are all hyper-focused on the ice harvesters of the cognitive economy. We look at AI — large language models, generative tools, automated reasoning — and we see the rupture. We mourn the entry-level analyst, the copywriter, the junior coder. The anxiety is real. The displacement is real. The cold is real.

But what we are struggling to visualize is the refrigerated trucking of the mind.

“AI is flash-freezing cognition. It is taking tasks that used to rot if not attended to immediately by expensive, time-consuming human effort, and preserving them in a scalable, frictionless state.”

When intelligence and execution can be flash-frozen and shipped anywhere instantly — to a first-generation entrepreneur in rural India, to a solo founder with no budget for consultants, to a teacher in a school that can’t afford specialists — what new aisles get built in the supermarket of human endeavor?

The honest answer is that we don’t know. The Inuit fishermen of Labrador couldn’t have imagined the frozen pizza aisle. The ice harvesters of the 1930s couldn’t have pictured the cold chain logistics industry that employs millions today. We are standing in their moment, watching the ice form, mourning the harvest — and almost certainly underestimating what comes next.

The true impact of AI won’t be measured in the jobs it automates. It will be measured in the industries, creative liberties, and human possibilities that emerge because we no longer have to spend all our energy just keeping the ideas from spoiling.

Questions to Consider

  1. The Invisible Creation: Flash freezing’s job creation vastly outpaced its job destruction — but only over decades. How long are we willing to hold that faith with AI, and what do we owe the people displaced in the interim?
  2. The Democratization Dividend: Birdseye’s invention ultimately made fresh nutrition available to people who never had it. Who are the equivalent beneficiaries of flash-frozen cognition — and are we building the infrastructure to actually reach them?
  3. The Harvest Season Question: We’ve always structured education, careers, and institutions around the assumption that expertise is scarce and slow to develop. What breaks — and what gets liberated — when that assumption stops being true?
  4. The Indifference Problem: The cold that killed the ice harvesters’ livelihoods was indifferent to their suffering. Is there anything about AI disruption that is meaningfully different from previous waves of technological displacement — or are we simply the latest generation to stand in that frost?

Categories
AI IBM

From Picnic to Workforce: The New Scaling

In 1977, Charles and Ray Eames released a short film for IBM called Powers of Ten.

The film opens with a couple picnicking on a blanket in Chicago and zooms out—every ten seconds, the field of view increases by a factor of ten.

We move from the intimacy of a lakeside lunch to the edge of the observable universe, then plunge back down through the skin of a hand into the subatomic architecture of a carbon atom.

The subtitle was “A Film Dealing with the Relative Size of Things and the Effect of Adding a Zero.”

It was a meditation on scale, suggesting that as we add zeros to our perspective, the very nature of what we are looking at transforms.

Today, with AI, we are living through a new kind of “Powers of Ten” journey, but the zeros aren’t being added to meters; they are being added to tokens.

I recently read a reflection by Azeem Azhar where he chronicled his shift from using 1,000 AI tokens a day to nearly 100 million. In the Eames’ film, adding a zero moved you from a park bench to a city, then to a continent. In the world of Large Language Models, adding a zero moves the AI from a novelty to a tool, then to a collaborator, and eventually—at the scale of 100 million—to something resembling a “workforce.”

“At 100,000 [tokens], a collaborator. At 1 million, I was building workflows. At 10 million, processes. At nearly 100 million – something closer to a workforce.”

This shift is more than just “more of the same.” It is a phase change.

When the Eames’ camera zoomed out to $10^{24}$ meters, the Earth didn’t just look smaller; it disappeared into a texture of galaxies.

When we scale our interaction with intelligence by several orders of magnitude, the “picnic” of human cognition—the way we think, draft, and create—is no longer the center of the frame.

At the 100-million-token-day scale, we aren’t just “using” AI. We are orchestrating vast, invisible ecosystems of thought. We are seeing companies like Spotify where top developers reportedly haven’t written a line of code in months, instead directing systems that ship features while the humans review the output from their phones.

We have added so many zeros that the “relative size” of human effort has changed.

The chilling yet beautiful thing about Powers of Ten was the realization of our own insignificance in the face of the cosmos, balanced by the intricate complexity found within our own cells.

As we zoom out into the “Token-Verse,” we face a similar existential pivot. If an AI can process a hundred million tokens of “thought” in a day—a volume no human could read in a lifetime—what does it mean to be the “author” of our lives?

The answer, I suspect, lies back on the picnic blanket.

The Eameses knew that while the scale of the universe is staggering, the meaning is found in the connection between the two people on the grass.

As we add zeros to our digital capabilities, our value shifts from the production of tokens to the intention behind them.

We are no longer the builders of the cathedral; we are the ones deciding why the cathedral needs to exist at all.

We are moving from the era of the “Worker” to the era of the “Architect” or maybe just the “Witness.”

Categories
AI AI: Large Language Models

The Texture of Autonomy

There is a distinct texture to working with a truly capable person. It is a feeling of relief, specific and profound.

When you hand a project to a junior employee who “gets it,” the mental load doesn’t just decrease; it vanishes. You don’t have to map the territory for them. You don’t have to pre-visualize every stumble or correct every navigational error. You simply point to the destination, and they find their way.

I was thinking about this feeling—this specific brand of professional trust—when I read a recent observation from two partners at Sequoia regarding the current state of Artificial Intelligence:

“Generally intelligent people can work autonomously for hours at a time, making and fixing their mistakes and figuring out what to do next without being told. Generally intelligent agents can do the same thing. This is new.”

The phrase that sticks with me is “without being told.”

For the last forty years, our relationship with computers has been strictly transactional. The computer waits. We command. It executes. Even the most sophisticated algorithms have essentially been waiting for us to hit “Enter.” They are tools, no different in spirit than a very fast abacus or a hyper-efficient typewriter.

But we are crossing a threshold where the software stops waiting.

The definition of intelligence in a workspace isn’t just raw processing power; it is the ability to recover from failure without supervision. It is the capacity to run into a wall, realize you have hit a wall, back up, and look for a door—all while the manager is asleep or working on something else.

When Sequoia notes that “this is new,” they aren’t talking about a feature update. They are talking about a shift in the ontology of our tools. We are moving from an era of leverage (tools that make us faster) to an era of agency (tools that act on our behalf).

This changes the psychological contract between human and machine. If an agent can “figure out what to do next,” we are no longer operators; we are managers. And as anyone who has transitioned from individual contributor to management knows, that is a fundamentally different skill set. It requires clearer intent, better goal-setting, and the ability to trust a process you cannot entirely see.

We are about to find out what it feels like to have a digital colleague that doesn’t just listen, but actually thinks about the next step.