This morning I came across a prompt that I’ve been finding provides me with some interesting results in understanding the financial results of a public company. I’ve used it several times on various companies and have found new insights in the results that I otherwise might not have realized. Here’s the prompt:
Analyze the last 3 earnings calls for [symbol].
Don't summarize what they said - tell me what they're NOT saying.
Focus on:
1) Questions the CEO dodged or gave vague answers to,
2) Metrics they stopped reporting compared to previous quarters,
3) Language changes - where they went from confident to cautious or vice versa,
4) New talking points that appeared suddenly,
5) Guidance changes and the exact wording they used to frame it. Then connect this to their stock performance in the 2 weeks following each call.
What pattern emerges? Explain clearly.
Is the stock a sell or a buy at its current price? How strong is your conviction?
One of the techniques that advanced AI users employ is to use AI to improve on their prompts. I wanted to see what Gemini 3 Pro could do to help me improve on this particular prompt – so I asked it:
You are an expert at prompt engineering. Here's a prompt that I find very useful but would like help to improve. What would you recommend to make it even better? Prompt: [insert prompt here]
Gemini responded and educated me:
This is a sophisticated request. You are asking for negative space analysisโdetecting the absence of signal, which is significantly harder for LLMs than summarizing present text.
The weakness of your current prompt is that it relies on the model’s general “feeling” about what was dodged. To make it “expert-level,” you need to force the model to perform comparative forensics between the Prepared Remarks (scripted/safe) and the Q&A (unscripted/risky), and between historical promises and current reality.
Here is the recommended upgrade to your prompt, followed by an explanation of why these changes work.
And the suggested prompt it provided when I asked it to optimize the prompt for $PYPL:
Role: Act as a Forensic Financial Analyst and Researcher. Task: Analyze the earnings call transcripts for $PYPL (PayPal) from Q1 2025, Q2 2025, and Q3 2025.
Core Directive: Do not summarize the "Bull Case." Your goal is to identify omission, deflection, and narrative drift.
Step 1: The "Dog That Didn't Bark" (Metric Analysis)
Compare the metrics reported in the Q1 2025 deck/opening remarks against Q3 2025.
List any specific metric (e.g., Net New Actives, TPV ex-eBay, OCF growth) that was prominent in earlier calls but vanished or was de-emphasized in the most recent call.
Output: A table: [Metric Name] | [Q1 Mention Count] | [Q3 Mention Count] | [Context of Disappearance].
Step 2: Semantic Divergence (Prepared vs. Q&A)
Analyze the tone difference between the CEO's Prepared Remarks (Scripted) and their Q&A Responses (Unscripted).
Identify specific instances where a confident claim in the script was walked back or qualified with "hedging" words ("essentially," "broadly," "we believe," "monitor") during the Q&A.
Step 3: The "Non-Answer" Detection
Review the Q&A section. Identify questions where the executive:
Pivoted to a different topic (e.g., asked about margins, answered about volume).
Used "word salad" (high jargon, low specific detail).
Claimed it was "too early to tell" for a product launched >6 months ago.
Quote the specific question and the specific non-answer.
Step 4: Stock Correlation
Retrieve the stock price performance for the 10 trading days following each call.
Correlate the severity of the "evasiveness" you found in Step 3 with the subsequent price action.
Final Verdict:
Based only on the negative signals (omissions and deflections), rate the stock as Accumulate, Neutral, or Distribute (Sell).
Provide a "Conviction Score" (1-10) based on the clarity of the executive team's transparency.
Gemini went on to explain the enhancements it made including the suggesting prompt for the Gem:
Why This is Better
- It defines the “Negative Space” (Step 1) LLMs hallucinate less when you ask them to count. By asking for a specific comparison of mention counts of metrics between Q1 and Q3, you force the model to mathematically prove that a topic has been dropped.
- It separates Script from Reality (Step 2) Executives are media-trained to sound confident in their opening speech. The “alpha” (the edge) is found when they get flustered in the Q&A. This prompt explicitly instructs the model to treat those two sections differently.
- It targets specific evasion tactics (Step 3) Instead of just asking for “dodged questions,” this prompt gives the model a taxonomy of evasion: Pivoting and Word Salad. This helps the model recognize that “We are excited about the long-term trajectory of Venmo” is actually a non-answer to “Why did Venmo revenue drop this quarter?”
- It forces “Conviction Scoring” Asking for a simple “Buy/Sell” often yields a hedged, safe answer from AI. Asking for a “Conviction Score” forces the model to weigh the evidence. If it finds many dodged questions, the conviction score for a “Sell” should naturally be higher.
This is just one example of using AI to enhance what’s possible using AI. I found this to be a very interesting and educational exercise and example!
Various AI’s natually respond differently to this prompt – and it’s interesting to compare the results for the same company. Give it a try!
After running the prompt one a couple of companies, I realized that this is a prompt I’d like to generalize and save away as a Gemini Gem so that I can easily run it whenever I want. So I asked Gemini:
I would like to generalize this and turn it into a gem that I can run on any company.
Gemini’s response:
This is a great move. By generalizing this, you are creating a “Forensic Short-Seller” agent that you can drop onto any earnings situation.
Below is the Master Prompt Template. I have swapped out the PayPal-specific metrics for variable placeholders and generalized the logic to work across industries (e.g., it will look for “Same Store Sales” in retail just as aggressively as “ARR” in software).
The “Negative Space” Forensic Prompt
Copy and paste the text below. All you need to do is replace the bracketed [VARIABLES].
Role: Act as a Forensic Financial Analyst and Short-Seller Researcher.
Context: I need you to perform a “Negative Space Analysis” on the last 3 earnings calls for [INSERT TICKER SYMBOL].
The Theory: Corporate executives are incentivized to highlight growth and obscure deterioration. The truth is often found in what they stop saying, or how they change their phrasing, rather than their headline numbers.
Your Goal: Do not summarize the “Bull Case.” Identify omission, deflection, and narrative drift.
Step 1: The “Vanishing Metric” Analysis
Scan the “Key Performance Indicators” (KPIs) reported in the oldest of the three calls.
Compare them to the most recent call.
Identify any specific metric (e.g., Customer Count, Retention Rate, Margins per Unit, backlog) that was prominent in earlier calls but was removed, redefined, or de-emphasized in the most recent call.
Output: A table: | Metric Name | Mention Count (Oldest Call) | Mention Count (Newest Call) | The Executive Excuse (if any given) |
Step 2: Semantic Divergence (Scripted vs. Unscripted)
Analyze the tone difference between the CEO/CFO Prepared Remarks (Scripted) and their Q&A Responses (Unscripted).
Identify instances where a confident claim in the script was walked back in the Q&A using “hedging” language (e.g., “headwinds,” “macro environment,” “transitory,” “conservative view”).
Flag any “Adjective Inflation”โusing strong adjectives (“robust,” “tremendous”) to describe mediocre data.
Step 3: The “Non-Answer” Detection
Review the Q&A section specifically. Identify questions where the executive:
Pivoted: Asked about A, answered about B.
Filibustered: Gave a long, jargon-heavy answer without specific numbers.
Deferred: Claimed it is “too early to tell” for a strategic initiative that should have data by now.
Format:
The Question: [Quote the Analyst’s hard question] The Evasion: [Quote the specific part of the answer that dodges] Translation: [Briefly explain what they were hiding]
Step 4: Sentiment vs. Price Action
Look at the stock price performance in the 10 days following each of the 3 calls.
Compare the CEO’s confidence level (High/Medium/Low) with the market’s reaction.
Pattern Recognition: Does the market consistently sell off despite “good news” (indicating management has lost credibility)?
Final Verdict:
Rating: Accumulate / Neutral / Distribute (Sell)
Conviction Score (1-10): (10 = The company is totally opaque/hiding bad news; 1 = The company is transparent).
The “Smoking Gun”: One sentence summarizing the single most concerning omission or change in narrative.
How to use this “Gem” effectively
To get the most out of this generalized prompt, keep these three tweaks in mind:
Define the “Golden KPI”: If you know the industry, add a hint in Step 1.
For SaaS: “Focus on Net Dollar Retention and ARR.”
For Retail: “Focus on Same Store Sales and Inventory levels.”
For Manufacturing: “Focus on Order Backlog and Book-to-Bill ratio.”
Provide the Data: Most LLMs cannot browse live transcripts behind paywalls perfectly. For best results, paste the text of the transcripts (or the Q&A sections) directly into the chat before running the prompt, or ensure you are using a model with active web browsing that can access financial news sites.
The “Competitor Check”: If you want to make it even sharper, add this line to Step 2: “Contrast their tone with [Competitor Ticker], who reported recently.”
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