Categories
Banking Markets

The Honesty of the Long Bond

There is a particular sound a fraud model makes right before someone silences it. Not an alarm, not a siren — a score. A number ticking upward on a screen, quietly, the way a fever climbs before anyone thinks to take the temperature. At Visa, in the years when the network was still teaching itself to smell trouble before trouble arrived, the worst mistake wasn’t missing the signal. It was seeing the signal and deciding, for reasons that felt reasonable in the room, to turn the threshold down. To make the number stop being inconvenient. The fraud didn’t go away when you did that. It just went un-priced for a while, and un-priced things have a way of arriving all at once, later, with interest.

I thought about that instinct — the turned-down threshold — reading Stanley Druckenmiller’s account of what the Treasury Department did on Aug. 19. The 30-year yield had touched a nineteen-year high. Within hours, Treasury announced it would double its long-dated bond buybacks, from two billion dollars a operation to at least four, running through early November. Yields fell. By the next afternoon they’d round-tripped back above where they started. The market had said its piece and gone back to saying it.

Druckenmiller’s point is not really about buybacks. Four billion dollars against a marketable debt stock nearing thirty trillion is a rounding error, and he says so. His point is about what a price is for. The long Treasury yield is the closest thing this country has to an incorruptible witness — a number nobody in Washington controls, that aggregates what millions of lenders actually believe about a borrower’s arithmetic, and reports back without spin. Inflation running above target since 2021. Unemployment low enough to call full employment by any definition. A deficit near six percent of GDP in peacetime, at full employment, which is not a thing this country has produced before. Interest payments outrunning the defense budget. The debt crossing forty trillion the same week Treasury decided the honest price of borrowing against all of that was too loud, and needed managing.

Categories
AI Semiconductors

The Margin of the Weather

A company that has sold memory chips for forty years — memory, one of the most humiliatingly commoditized products in capitalism, a business that has bankrupted entire Korean and Japanese conglomerates teaching each other lessons about discipline — is about to make more money in twelve months than in the previous four decades combined.

Samsung’s chip chief told a room of his own employees: this year’s profit will exceed everything the division has earned since the 1970s. Forty years of grinding, erased by one fiscal year. You’d think they’d invented something.

They hadn’t. Everyone building an AI data center needs memory. Nobody built enough factories. Samsung was one of three companies on earth able to supply the shortfall, and the price of a chip that costs what it always cost went up fifty percent. Samsung kept the difference. Not innovation. What happens to a farmer when the drought hits every field but his.

We don’t credit the lucky farmer with genius. We say: good year. And we don’t expect the good year to repeat. Rain comes back. The price falls. Scarcity is weather, not a personality trait.

There’s a real achievement in this story too, and it has nothing to do with the weather. A year ago Samsung failed to qualify its most advanced memory for Nvidia’s systems — performance problems, a rival getting the business instead. The engineers went back and fixed it. That’s the actual skill in this company’s year: unglamorous, uncelebrated at the town hall, worth nothing next to the number that got the confetti. The competence arrived quietly, on a different chip, in a different meeting, and nobody’s putting that on a plaque.

The stock market didn’t put it on one either, but it seemed to know the difference. Best quarter in Samsung’s history — profit nineteen times the year before — and the shares fell seven percent. Not despite the earnings. The gain had already been priced in, the shares having run up a hundred and fifty percent on the expectation of exactly this number, so the number’s arrival became a ceiling instead of a floor. A market rewards discovery. It does not reward weather. Had investors believed Samsung built something durable — the Nvidia qualification, the years of engineering behind it — the stock would have ripped, the way See’s Candies or Apple gets rewarded quarter after quarter, because everyone agrees the thing generating the money isn’t going anywhere. Instead the market glanced at the record harvest and asked, politely, whether it would rain again next year.

Analysts insist the shortage holds through next year. Someone always insists that, right before it doesn’t. Fabs get built. Capacity catches the demand that summoned it, the way it always has, and the cycle ends the way memory cycles end — too much supply chasing too little demand, margins reverting toward the number they were always going to revert toward. Nobody knows if this time is different. A company just posted the best year of its life, on a windfall it didn’t earn and a fix it did, and the market — which has seen droughts end before — hasn’t decided yet which one it’s watching.

Categories
Design Technology

The Battery That Refused to Leave

A standard AA battery is 50.5 millimeters long and 14.5 millimeters in diameter. It produces 1.5 volts. It weighs roughly twenty-three grams, about as much as a sheet of paper folded twice. In a Costco bulk pack, forty-eight of them together weigh a little over a kilogram — the heft of a hardcover book, or a decent cantaloupe. Most people buy them without thinking much about it. They go in the cart the way paper towels go in the cart.

The size has been in continuous production since 1907, when the American Ever Ready Company first manufactured it for use in early penlights. For the first four decades of its existence, the AA battery was what might be called an informal standard — widely used, commonly understood, but not officially codified. That changed in 1947, when the American National Standards Institute fixed the dimensions and voltage in writing. The naming convention itself had come earlier, out of a series of meetings in the 1920s between government officials and battery manufacturers who were trying to bring order to a proliferating market. They began with A for the smallest practical cell, then moved outward — B, C, D — for larger sizes. When smaller cells were needed later, the alphabet doubled back on itself: AA, AAA, AAAA. Running out of letters in both directions is its own kind of history.

What the standards committee built, whether they thought of it this way or not, was a commons. The word is precise. A commons is something no one owns and everyone can use — a pasture, a fishery, a language. The AA battery became a commons of power. Any battery from any manufacturer, made to the specification, would work in any device built to receive it. The chemistry inside could vary — zinc-carbon, alkaline, lithium, nickel-metal hydride — but the housing stayed the same. No license was required. No negotiation. A manufacturer building a flashlight in 1965 did not need to solve the battery problem. A company making a remote control in 1985 did not need to negotiate with a power supplier. The relationship between a device and its energy source belonged to no one, which meant it was available to everyone.

In 1959, an Eveready scientist developed the first commercially available alkaline AA, which lasted five to eight times longer than the zinc-carbon version it was designed to replace. The devices followed the power. Transistor radios. Portable tape players. Handheld games. Cameras. Each decade brought a new category of device that found the AA battery waiting for it, already standardized, already available at every drugstore and grocery checkout lane in the country. The commons kept growing because the commons was free to enter.

Apple, eventually, decided the idea was wrong.

The iPhone, introduced in 2007, had no user-replaceable battery. Neither did any iPod before it, any iPad after it, any MacBook, any AirPod, any Apple Watch. The power source in an Apple product is sealed inside the device, charged through Apple’s own cables and connectors, managed by Apple’s own software. This is not a cost-cutting measure or an engineering compromise. Apple’s products cost more than their competitors’, not less, and the sealed battery is part of what justifies the price. The company’s founding argument — refined over decades, made explicit in every product announcement — is that hardware and software and power, designed together and optimized together, produce a better result than any open standard can achieve. The AA battery asks nothing of you except that you insert it correctly. Apple has decided that is insufficient.

Tesla arrived at a similar conclusion by a different route. Where Apple sealed the power source to improve the user experience, Tesla sealed it to own the energy relationship entirely. The Supercharger network — Tesla’s proprietary charging infrastructure, built out across highways and cities at enormous expense — is not interoperable with other electric vehicles, or was not for most of its history. A Tesla charges at a Tesla station. The battery chemistry, the cell format, the thermal management, the software that governs charging and discharge — all of it is developed in-house, at Tesla’s gigafactories, for Tesla’s vehicles. The company has spent more time and money thinking about batteries than almost any organization outside of a national laboratory. But the battery it produces is not a commodity. It belongs to the car. The car belongs to Tesla’s ecosystem. The customer belongs there too.

Both companies are making a version of the same argument: that the future of technology is integrated, that the best products are closed products, that power should be managed rather than swapped. They have built that future, or a version of it, for the customers who can afford to live inside it.

Warren Buffett, in 2014, bought the thing neither of them wanted.

Berkshire Hathaway’s acquisition of Duracell from Procter & Gamble was structured as a stock swap — Berkshire exchanged its $4.7 billion stake in P&G for full ownership of the battery company, recapitalized with $1.8 billion in cash. The tax advantages were real and significant; Berkshire had held the P&G shares since the company’s acquisition of Gillette in 2005, and the cost basis was $336 million. A cash sale would have produced a substantial capital gains bill. The swap avoided that. Buffett is attentive to such things.

But the more durable rationale was simpler. Buffett has spent sixty years looking for businesses that are easy to understand, that generate predictable cash, that sell something people buy out of habit. See’s Candy. GEICO. Coca-Cola. The common thread is not glamour but persistence — products whose value proposition does not need to be reinvented, whose customers return not because they have been excited but because they have been satisfied, reliably, for a long time. Duracell has twenty-five percent of the global battery market. It has been the category leader for decades. The people who buy it at Costco are not making a considered choice between competing technologies. They are buying what they have always bought.

The Costco pack of forty-eight is, in Buffett’s framework, infrastructure. Not the infrastructure of data centers or power grids — the quiet infrastructure of daily life, the kind that gets restocked when the supply runs low and otherwise goes unnoticed. Smoke detectors. Remote controls. Children’s toys. Wireless computer mice. Clocks on kitchen walls. The devices that run on AA batteries are not going away, and the economics of replacing them — not just the devices but the habits, the muscle memory, the universal availability of the standard — are formidable. Buffett is not betting that the AA battery will conquer the future. He is betting that it will remain in the present for a very long time.

Two different visions of where technology is going, then, expressed in the form of capital allocation. Apple and Tesla have built sealed ecosystems and asked their customers to enter. Buffett bought the battery for the people who haven’t. The AA cell, fifty millimeters long and fourteen and a half millimeters wide, 1.5 volts, unchanged in its dimensions since a group of manufacturers met in the 1920s to agree on something everyone could use — it sits at the back of a kitchen drawer in most houses in America, waiting for the smoke detector to chirp.

Categories
AI

The Student, The Teacher, and the Delightful Absurdity of It All

Howard Marks is one of the sharpest financial minds alive. The man has been thinking clearly about markets for fifty years, has written memos that get passed around Wall Street like sacred texts, and has outlasted more market cycles than most of us have had hot dinners. So when Howard Marks decides he needs to get educated about artificial intelligence to write a follow-up to his December memo, he does what any serious intellectual would do: he asks Claude.

And then Claude — the AI — teaches him about Claude.

I’ve been sitting with this for a few days and I’m still not entirely sure whether it’s profound or just very, very funny. Maybe both. Probably both.

Categories
AI Business

The Moat Drains

There is an old metaphor in investing — the “moat.” Warren Buffett popularized it: the idea that the best businesses are castles surrounded by deep, wide moats that keep competitors at bay.

For the past two decades, enterprise software companies built some of the most impressive moats in the history of capitalism. Sticky customers. Multi-year contracts. Switching costs so high that even dissatisfied clients stayed put. The moat wasn’t just deep — it was filled with concrete.

This morning, JP Morgan’s equity research team quietly suggested the concrete may be cracking. See also this recent Substack post by Jordi Visser.

In a note lowering price targets across their software coverage, the bank cited a striking phrase: “the exponential pace of AI proliferation raises doubts about competitive moats and the defensibility of software companies.”

They’re not alone in thinking this. But there’s something significant about seeing it written in the careful, hedged language of a major Wall Street research report.

When the analysts who model ten-year discounted cash flows start abandoning that framework — replacing it with simpler one- and two-year profitability multiples — it’s a signal worth decoding.

The shift in valuation methodology is itself the story. DCF analysis — the gold standard of software valuation for a generation — requires confidence in a company’s earnings trajectory over many years.

JP Morgan is saying, plainly, that they no longer have that confidence. The window of visibility has collapsed. When you can’t see more than a year or two out, you stop pretending you can.

“Investors are less comfortable underwriting defensive growth over multi-year periods.”

What’s driving this?

The suspicion — increasingly well-founded — that AI is not just a feature to be added to existing software products, but a force that restructures the value chain entirely.

If an AI agent can perform the function that previously required a $50,000-per-year SaaS subscription, the moat doesn’t just shrink. It evaporates. The castle becomes a historical curiosity.

Vertical software stocks — the specialized platforms serving specific industries like healthcare, construction, or legal — currently trade at 10 to 25 times EBITDA, according to the note. The S&P 500 as a whole trades at 15 times. The message embedded in those numbers is sobering: many of these once-premium businesses are being re-rated toward commodity valuations, and some may not have found their floor yet.

JP Morgan’s preferred companies in this environment are those with upside to 2026 revenue estimates and those they view as “defensive to AI proliferation.” That second phrase is the one I find myself turning over. It implies a new taxonomy is forming in the market — not growth vs. value, not cyclical vs. defensive, but AI-vulnerable vs. AI-resistant. That’s a categorization that didn’t meaningfully exist three years ago.

The moat metaphor may need an update. In the age of AI, the question is no longer how wide the moat is. It’s whether the castle itself still needs to exist.

Questions to Consider

  1. The Moat Inventory: If you were a software CEO this morning, which parts of your product would you genuinely consider defensible against AI substitution — and which would you privately admit are vulnerable?
  2. The Valuation Signal: When Wall Street abandons long-term DCF models in favor of near-term multiples, is that a temporary adjustment to uncertainty — or a permanent reset in how software businesses will be valued going forward?
  3. The New Taxonomy: JP Morgan implicitly divides the software world into AI-vulnerable and AI-resistant. What characteristics do you think actually define that divide — and can a company move from one category to the other?
  4. The Buffett Test: Buffett’s moat metaphor was built for a world of slow-moving competitive forces. Is the concept still useful in an era of exponential technology change, or do we need a new mental model entirely?
  5. The Timing Question: Is this re-rating of software companies a rational early response to a real structural shift — or is Wall Street, as it often does, overcorrecting in the short term for a change that will take much longer to fully materialize?
Categories
AI AI: Large Language Models AI: Prompting Business

Stuck in an Elevator with Buffett and Munger

Jonathan Clements had an interesting blog post this week on his Humble Dollar blog about replacing writers with the writing of ChatGPT. He did an experiment – using a prompt about being trapped in an elevator with Jack Bogle of Vanguard fame and the investment lessons he learned from that experience.

I took his prompt and just modified it slightly – instead of being trapped with Jack Bogle, what happened if I was trapped with Warren’s Buffett and the late Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway.

Here’s the prompt I used with Meta.ai to generate the article below: “Write an 800-word article about the time I got stuck in an elevator with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger and the investment lessons I learned.”

Here’s the article that the AI generated, unmodified or edited by me:

Getting Stuck in an Elevator with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger: A Chance Encounter that Taught Me Invaluable Investment Lessons

It was a typical conference day, with attendees buzzing around, eager to learn from the brightest minds in the finance industry. I had just finished a riveting session and was heading to the next one when disaster struck. As I stepped into the elevator, I noticed two familiar faces – Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, the legendary duo from Berkshire Hathaway. Little did I know, this chance encounter would turn into an unforgettable experience that would shape my investment philosophy forever.

As the doors closed, the elevator jolted to a sudden halt. We were stuck. The initial silence was broken by Warren’s calm and composed voice, “Well, looks like we’re in this together now.” Charlie, with his signature wit, quipped, “I’ve been stuck with Warren for decades, but this is a new kind of challenge.” The ice was broken, and we began to chat.

Lesson 1: Stay Calm and Patient

As we waited for help to arrive, Warren and Charlie’s demeanor taught me a valuable lesson. Despite being two of the most successful investors in the world, they didn’t panic or get flustered. They took it in stride, and their calmness was infectious. It reminded me of Warren’s famous quote, “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” In that moment, I realized that staying calm and patient is crucial in investing, just as it is in dealing with unexpected situations like a stuck elevator.

Lesson 2: Focus on the Big Picture

As we discussed our predicament, Charlie pointed out that getting stuck in an elevator was a minor setback in the grand scheme of things. He drew an analogy with investing, saying, “Just as we’re not defined by this moment, a stock’s value shouldn’t be judged by its short-term performance.” Warren added, “It’s essential to focus on the underlying fundamentals and long-term prospects, rather than getting bogged down by short-term volatility.”

Lesson 3: Diversification is Key

As we chatted, Warren mentioned that Berkshire Hathaway’s diversified portfolio had helped them weather many economic storms. Charlie emphasized the importance of spreading risk, saying, “You don’t want to put all your eggs in one basket, just like you wouldn’t want to be stuck in an elevator with only one exit strategy.” This conversation reinforced the value of diversification in my investment strategy, ensuring that my portfolio is resilient and adaptable to changing market conditions.

Lesson 4: Continuous Learning is Crucial

As we waited, Warren and Charlie engaged in a lively discussion about the latest developments in the tech industry. They were curious, asked questions, and sought to understand the implications of emerging trends. This exchange reminded me that investing is a continuous learning process. Staying up-to-date with market news, reading books, and seeking knowledge from experts are essential to making informed investment decisions.

Lesson 5: Humility and Humor Go a Long Way

Throughout our ordeal, Warren and Charlie’s humility and sense of humor put us all at ease. They joked about their own mistakes and shared stories of their early days in the investment world. This lightheartedness taught me that even the most successful investors can maintain a sense of humor and humility, acknowledging that no one has all the answers.

A Chance Encounter that Changed My Perspective

After what felt like an eternity, the elevator doors finally opened, and we emerged, relieved and grateful. As we parted ways, Warren and Charlie left me with a few parting words of wisdom: “Investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Stay focused, patient, and keep learning.” That chance encounter in the stuck elevator had turned into an invaluable learning experience, shaping my investment philosophy and reminding me of the importance of humility, humor, and a long-term perspective.

As I walked away from the conference center that day, I felt grateful for the unexpected turn of events that had brought me face-to-face with two investment legends. The lessons I learned in that elevator have stayed with me, guiding my investment decisions and reminding me to approach the markets with a clear head, a sense of humor, and a commitment to continuous learning.

Categories
Berkshire Hathaway Business Warren Buffett

Remembering Blue Chip Stamps

While I was going to college in the late 1960’s, Blue Chip Stamps became quite a presence in California. I was listening to a podcast with Jacob McDonough (TIP 573) on my morning walk this morning as he discussed the early years of Berkshire Hathaway – and that brought memories for me.

It was amazing to watch the arc of Blue Chip during the 60’s and 70’s. Our family moved to California from Ohio where S&H Green Stamps had a significant presence. But Blue Chip seemed much bigger in California.

Back in those days, gasoline service stations and supermarkets were the major distributors of these trading stamps – making a very nice business for Blue Chip and S&H. As gas stations competed for business, they started offering multiples – like 3X or 5X stamps on your purchases. Lots of stamps!

In 1970, Berkshire began investing in buy the stock of Blue Chip. One of the companies purchased by Berkshire back in those days was Blue Chip Stamps. Wikipedia quotes Warren Buffett in his 2006 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Blue Chip had 1970 sales of $126 million as about 60 billion “stamps were licked by savers, pasted into books, and taken to Blue Chip redemption stores. When I was told that even certain brothels and mortuaries gave stamps to their patrons, I felt I had finally found a sure thing.”

Similar to insurance companies, these trading stamp companies were getting cash in the door from selling stamps to retailers to pass along to their customers for their loyalty while not having any actual expenses to incur until those customers pasted the stamps in their little booklets and traded them in for actual merchandise. And, along the way, some of those stamps might just disappear – “breakage” helping enhance the financial returns.

Berkshire knew a lot about insurance businesses and clearly found the trading stamp business at Blue Chip had a lot of good similarities. As with many things, the trading stamp business was good while it lasted – but it didn’t last. No worries for Berkshire however as Buffett made a very nice return along the way on his investment in Blue Chip.

Memories of old times!