Month: May 2026

Categories
California Petroleum

The Last Tanker

There is a strange, quiet finality to the arrival of the New Corolla. It is a massive vessel, carrying two million barrels of crude—a literal, physical weight of energy—into the Port of Long Beach. It loaded up in Iraq on February 24th, just days before the world’s geopolitical plates shifted and the Strait of Hormuz effectively slammed shut.

By the time you read this, that oil will have been offloaded, refined, and moved into the capillaries of California’s infrastructure—into gas tanks, jet engines, and diesel generators.

And then, the silence begins.

California has long existed as an “energy island.” It is a geographic quirk that defines our modern life: we are disconnected from the domestic pipeline network that feeds the rest of the country. We don’t have the luxury of pulling from a pipeline in Texas or the Midwest. We are, by design, tethered to the horizon. We are dependent on the flow of tankers across the vast, deep blue of the Pacific.

For years, this worked. It was a invisible architecture of convenience. We consumed, and the tankers arrived with the metronomic precision of a clock. But the New Corolla is not just a delivery; it is a period at the end of a sentence. It represents the last of a supply chain that we assumed would be permanent.

When the analyst says, “all bets are off,” they aren’t just talking about prices at the pump or the logistical scrambling of refineries trying to source crude from Brazil or Guyana. They are describing the erosion of a certainty we didn’t realize we relied on. We have built a state—a massive, humming, technological engine—on the assumption that the world is a frictionless marketplace.

The crisis is not just about the supply of oil; it is the realization that we are fragile.

We look at our inventories, and we see them as a buffer. We are told they are “healthy,” but inventories are, by definition, a countdown. They are the water left in the glass after the tap has been turned off. We are now in the uncomfortable, interim phase where the supply lines are empty, and the new ones haven’t yet been built—or perhaps, cannot be built.

It is easy to look at this and see a political or economic failure. It is harder to see it as a human one. We have become experts at consuming the distant, while remaining strangers to the mechanics of that consumption. We have lived in the architecture of the “global everything,” and now, as the walls of that architecture contract, we are forced to look at the geometry of our own isolation.

The New Corolla will depart for distant waters. It will leave behind a void, and in that void, we will find out if our resilience is as robust as our rhetoric.

The future is only guaranteed for those who can afford to survive the present.

And for now, the present is a question of how much gasoline is left in the tank, how much jet fuel is available and how quickly we can learn to walk on our own.

Categories
Writing

The Unfinished Note

I’ve been sitting with a Susan Orlean line for a few days now, the way you sit with a splinter you can’t quite locate.

“Stories don’t need a ‘conclusion,’ a flourish of finality. It’s better to leave readers falling forward, tumbling through the piece and beyond it, finishing the tune in their heads.”

What strikes me isn’t the advice — plenty of writing teachers have said something like it — but the verb she chose. Tumbling. Not drifting. Not lingering. Tumbling. There’s a loss of control in that word, a small helpless momentum, the way you take one more step than you expected on a dark staircase and your body has to catch up to itself.

I’ve always been suspicious of endings that arrive wearing their own bow. You can feel them coming, those last paragraphs — the rhythm slows, the sentences get more declarative, the writer seems to straighten up and clear their throat. And then comes the lesson, the restatement, the turn toward uplift or hard-won wisdom. The piece explains what it was about. You close the browser tab and that’s the end of it.

But some pieces don’t end so much as they stop, at the right moment and the right angle, and something in you keeps moving. You find yourself thinking about them in the shower two days later. You’re not remembering the conclusion because there wasn’t one. You’re still inside the piece, finishing the tune, as Orlean says. The writer handed you the melody and walked off mid-phrase.

I think about this with music. Jazz, especially. The best solos don’t resolve — they suggest a resolution and then leave the air charged with it. Miles Davis understood that the note you don’t play is still a note. The silence after the phrase is part of the phrase.

I’m not sure I’ve ever actually written an ending this way. Most of my pieces come in for a landing; I can feel myself starting to circle and descend. Maybe that’s the real lesson in Orlean’s line — not a craft note about structure, but a challenge to trust the reader enough to leave the door ajar. To believe the piece was good enough that they’ll want to keep walking around inside it.

I’m still not sure I do.

Categories
AI Business

The Topography of a Face

I found myself staring at the physical geometry of a conversation the other day—not the words, but the topography of the faces delivering them.

Elad Gil recently shared a fascinating experiment during a conversation with Tim Ferriss. He’s been uploading photos of startup founders into AI models and asking the machines to predict if they’d be successful, purely based on their “micro-features.”

“Because if you think about it, we do this all the time when we meet people, right? We quickly try to create an assessment of that person, their personality, and what they’re like. There are all these micro-features—like, do you have crow’s feet by your eyes, which suggests that your smiles are genuine? […] So, I have this whole set of prompts that I’ve been messing around with, just for fun, around: ‘Can you extrapolate a person’s personality based off of a few images?'”

He notes the model breaks down the crow’s feet and the furrowed brows, extrapolating a personality from a static frame. It’s a parlor trick, perhaps. But it works because it holds a mirror to our oldest, most unexamined instinct.

We are all amateur phrenologists of the human face. We sit across a table, measure the crinkle of an eye or the tightness of a jaw, and we build a rapid, invisible architecture of trust or suspicion. Over decades of investing and making career choices, I’ve often leaned heavily on this silent language. I’ve backed founders because their intensity felt genuine, and I’ve passed on others because something in their posture felt misaligned.

But if I am brutally honest, that intuition has sometimes been a mask for my own blind spots. I’ve held on to failing investments for far too long because I trusted a reassuring smile. We like to think our gut instinct is a sophisticated instrument. Often, it is just a pattern-matching engine running on deeply flawed historical data.

Now, we are handing that very human habit over to a machine. We prompt the AI to become a “cold reader,” and it obliges, predicting who will be the quiet observer and who will deliver the dry wit.

The unsettling part isn’t that the machine might get it wrong. The unsettling part is that it might get it exactly right—by mimicking the very same rapid, superficial judgments we make every day, just at a terrifying scale.

We are teaching silicon to read the human code. The future will belong to those who realize the code was always written in our own biases.

Categories
Storytelling Writing

The Nerve of the Opening Line

For years I wrote first paragraphs that explained what I was about to say, which is a little like a joke that begins by describing how funny it is.

Susan Orlean has a better idea. In her book Joyride, she writes that a lede doesn’t need to preview the story or summarize what the rest of the piece will be about. What’s important is that it captivates readers and holds them fast to the page so they keep reading.

The conventional wisdom about ledes is that they exist to tell readers what they’re about to read. The billboard theory of the opening. Here is what this story is. Here is why it matters. Here is what you’ll find if you continue. The lede as table of contents, compressed.

Orlean is saying something stranger and more honest: the lede’s job is not to inform. It’s to hold the reader.

There’s a distinction there worth sitting with.

Informing a reader is a transaction — you transfer content, they receive it. Holding a reader is something else entirely. It’s closer to what a magician does in the first thirty seconds of a performance, or what a stranger does when they say something at a party that makes you turn and face them fully. You haven’t learned anything yet. You’ve just been made to stay.

The ledes that have held me longest tend to have almost nothing to do with the stories they open.

Joan Didion begins “The White Album” with a single sentence — “We tell ourselves stories in order to live” — that takes the entire essay to even partially fulfill.

Gay Talese opens his Frank Sinatra profile not with Sinatra’s voice or his legend but with a man going silent: “Frank Sinatra, holding a glass of bourbon in one hand and a cigarette in the other, stood in a dark corner of the bar between two attractive but fading blondes who sat waiting for him to say something. But he said nothing.”

Tracy Kidder opens The Soul of a New Machine not with computers but with a boat in a storm, Tom West awake for four straight nights while everyone else is seasick, the rest of the crew left wondering what on earth this man does for a living.

None of these ledes summarize. All of them hold.

What they share, I think, is a quality of disturbance. They’ve moved the ground slightly underfoot. Something is tilted.

Didion’s first sentence argues that we tell ourselves stories in order to live, and you feel the vertigo in it immediately — wait, is that true? Is that a good thing or a desperate thing?

Talese gives you a man diminished by illness and silence, and everything that follows is measured against that diminishment.

Kidder’s boat goes somewhere that prose about minicomputers wouldn’t, and by the time you’ve crossed that dark water with West, you’re already a different kind of reader than you were on page one.

I think about this when I try to write.

I grew up reading ledes the billboard way — I thought the first paragraph was a promise about what the reader would receive. And sometimes I still write them that way, which is to say I write them first and delete them later, because they’re stage fright disguised as generosity. Here is what I’m about to tell you really means please don’t leave before I find my footing.

The Orlean formulation — captivate, hold, keep reading — shifts the pressure off the writer’s anxiety and onto the reader’s experience. The question is no longer what do I need to tell them? The question is what will make them unable to leave?

That’s a harder question. It requires knowing something about what people can’t resist. Strangeness. Motion. A body in trouble. A door left open. The suggestion that someone knows something you don’t.

The best ledes I’ve ever written didn’t come first. They came after I’d already written the whole piece and finally understood what it was actually about — which turned out not to be the thing I thought it was about at the start. You can’t write the sentence that makes someone stay until you know what you’re asking them to stay for.

The lede isn’t a promise. It’s a wager. You’re betting that the reader will follow disturbance into the dark — and the only way to make that bet is to trust the disturbance yourself first. Most of us don’t. Most of us write the billboard because we’re afraid that if we don’t explain what’s coming, the reader will leave.

But the reader doesn’t leave because they’re confused. They leave because nothing reached out and held them.

The explanation never does that. The strangeness might.