Gartner’s view is that these three are right are peaking now on the hype cycle.
“The 2002 Hype Cycle reflects the bursting of the technology bubble,” said Alexander Linden, research director of emerging trends and technology at Gartner.
“There are surprisingly few new technologies entering the Hype Cycle or approaching the peak. Far more technologies are stuck in the trough of disillusionment and several of these are unlikely to emerge from this stage quickly.”
Gartner said that peer-to-peer computing, WAP and wireless web services, location sensing, speech recognition on desktops and e-payments are among the technologies that are floundering.
Gartner also suggested it would be two to five years before identity services, such as Microsoft’s Passport initiative and the Sun Microsystems-led Liberty Alliance, would be accepted for high-value transactions. Privacy and security concerns would hold back acceptance, said Linden.
Here’s a deeper explanation of the hype cycle.