Every time tech takes a leap, we assume we’re finally obsolete. The current panic, which Greg Ip recently picked apart in the Wall Street Journal, is AI. We hear endless predictions of “economic pandemics”—server farms wiping out white-collar jobs overnight, leaving everyone broke and adrift.
It’s a terrifying story. It also completely ignores history.
Ip highlights the main flaw in the doomsday pitch: it misreads how markets work. We treat labor like a fixed pie. If a machine eats a slice, we assume that slice is gone forever.
“Technological advancements always cost some people their jobs—those whose skills can be easily substituted by tech. But their loss is more than offset through three other channels. The new technology enhances the skills of some survivors… it helps create new businesses and new jobs; and it makes some stuff cheaper…”
That cycle holds up. Take the 1980s spreadsheet panic, a perfect parallel. When Lotus 1-2-3 and Excel hit the market, bookkeepers freaked out. Then the number of accountants and financial analysts exploded. Software didn’t kill the need to understand money. It just did the math, letting people focus on strategy.
We’re seeing the exact same thing with software development. Coding isn’t dead. As AI makes writing basic code cheaper, demand for software just goes up. That requires more humans to architect systems and supervise the AI. The pie just gets bigger.
But my skepticism about the AI apocalypse goes beyond economics. It’s about why we pay people in the first place.
We don’t just buy services; we buy accountability. Ip notes that radiologists kept their jobs because patients want a real person explaining their scans. Google Translate has been around since 2006, yet the number of human translators has jumped 73%. When the stakes are high—a legal contract, a medical diagnosis—we want a human in the room. We want a real person on the hook.
The danger isn’t that AI will replace us. The danger is that we panic and forget our own adaptability. The transition will hurt, and specific jobs will disappear. We’ll need safety nets. But betting against human ingenuity has always been a losing wager.
Large language models are tools, not replacements. They handle the cognitive heavy lifting, much like tractors handled the physical heavy lifting. Tractors didn’t end farming; they just killed the plow.
Work will change. We’ll have to figure out which of our skills are actually “human.” But as long as we want the presence and accountability of other people, there will be jobs. We just have to evolve. And we do. It’s the human spirit. Or is this time “really different”?
In a world that often celebrates specialization and highly values deep expertise, David Epstein’s words in his book “Range” come as a refreshing challenge to conventional wisdom. “Focusing narrowly on many fine details specific to a problem at hand feels like the exact right thing to do, when it is often exactly wrong,” he says, inviting us to reconsider how we approach problem-solving.
At first glance, this statement might seem counterintuitive. After all, isn’t attention to detail a virtue? Don’t we praise those who can dive deep into a subject, mastering its intricacies? While there’s undoubtedly value in specialized knowledge, Epstein’s quote highlights a potential pitfall: the danger of becoming so engrossed in the minutiae that we lose sight of the bigger picture. In my career, I was often considered the “expert” but I came to appreciate just how often the “tyranny of the expert” might apply to specific situations.
This narrow focus can lead to what psychologists call “functional fixedness” — an inability to see alternative uses for objects or ideas beyond their intended purpose. In problem-solving, this shows up as a tendency to approach challenges using only the most obvious or familiar methods, missing innovative solutions that usually lie just outside our immediate field of vision.
Moreover, an overly specific focus can blind us to valuable insights from other domains. Some of history’s most groundbreaking discoveries and innovations have come from interdisciplinary thinking — the ability to connect dots between seemingly unrelated fields.
Epstein’s quote also speaks to the value of generalism in an age of hyper-specialization. While specialists undoubtedly play crucial roles in advancing knowledge within their fields, generalists — those with a broad base of knowledge and diverse experiences — often excel at adapting to new situations and connecting disparate ideas in novel ways.
This isn’t to say that attention to detail and specialized knowledge aren’t important. Rather, Epstein’s words encourage us to balance depth with breadth, to zoom out periodically and consider the wider context of our problems and goals. It’s about developing what F. Scott Fitzgerald called a “first-rate intelligence” — the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind simultaneously and still retain the ability to function.
In practice, this might mean deliberately exposing ourselves to ideas and experiences outside our comfort zones. It could involve collaborating with people from different backgrounds or disciplines. Or it might simply mean taking a step back when we feel stuck, asking ourselves if we’re so focused on the trees that we’re missing the forest. In a group setting, encouraging this kind of wide ranging thinking – without being unnecessarily critical too quickly – can often yield new insights. For example, as a board member, I was often struck by the power of group collaboration when trying to work through a difficult problem.
Ultimately, Epstein’s quote is a call to embrace a more holistic, flexible approach to thinking and problem-solving. By resisting the urge to dive immediately into the details and instead considering the broader context, we open ourselves up to more creative solutions and a richer understanding of the world around us.
So how can we put Epstein’s advice into practice? Here are five actionable steps to consider for broadening your perspective and enhancing your problem-solving abilities:
Cross-pollinate your interests: Deliberately explore a field entirely unrelated to your primary area of expertise. If you’re in tech, try taking an art class. If you’re in finance, learn about ecology. These seemingly unrelated pursuits can spark unexpected connections and insights. As an example, the Santa Fe Institute’s work in complex adaptive systems was inspired by the intersection of biology and economics.
Embrace the “beginner’s mind”: Regularly put yourself in situations where you’re a novice. This could mean learning a new language, picking up a musical instrument, or trying almost anything new. The discomfort of being a beginner can reignite your curiosity and open your mind to new ways of thinking. But this also requires commitment and a willingness to withhold early judgement.
Diversify your network: Actively seek out relationships with people from different professional backgrounds, cultures, and age groups. Engage in conversations that challenge your assumptions and expose you to diverse perspectives. Unfortunately, today’s social media tools seem to drive us in just the opposite direction – clustering us online with those who share our existing points of view rather than exposing us to new ideas.
Practice interdisciplinary problem-solving: When faced with a challenge, try approaching it from multiple angles. Consider how professionals from different fields might tackle the problem. This exercise can help you break free from habitual thinking patterns. Again this requires stepping outside our normal behavior – in particular, we need to feel we can take the extra time that such an approach demands.
Schedule regular “zoom-out” sessions: Set aside time periodically to step back from the details of your work or life challenges. Ask yourself big-picture questions like “What’s the ultimate goal here?” or “How does this fit into the larger context?” This habit can help prevent you from getting lost in the minutiae and maintain a broader perspective. Periodic life reviews (quarterly, annually) can provide good opportunities for this kind of evaluation and help facilitate our wandering.
These practices can help cultivate a more versatile, adaptable mindset that helps us live and enjoy a better life.
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